Depends, What do you canucks got by way for a rampage squad up there? If he thinks he can pull a post facto optical win he will. it's in his filthy castro blood
More privately owned firearms than citizens in Canada. LOTS of them in Northern Ontario.
And again, many groups within Law Enforcement and the Armed Forces have openly stated that they're maple-flavored Oath Keepers and will defect. If Trudeau tries to pull an Assad. Ottawa becomes Aleppo. And that's before local goons in the rest of the country begin besieging their local fed outpost.
The image you have in your head of Canada is entirely based on docile bugmen living in Toronto. Most of Canada lives rural, and those rcountry rednecks are very much the same as southern red-necks in the US, perhaps even to the point ex-confederates would blush.
You'd have a bunch of dudes with meth-ventilation systems like Bane running around in scrap-built death machines constructed out of salvaged 70s vehicles with almost no electronic components wearing body armor gerry-rigged from AR500 targets armed with carbines pretty quick.
Pretty confident the American good ole' boys would start killing border guards to get in on the action, and then North America becomes New Africa for a few years.
Canada very much relies on leaving people alone in order to continue to function. The authoritarian dystopia only exists in cities. If you go out into the country, you're lucky to see Mounties inside the larger small towns. They're too spread out to do anything effective, and truth be told the same applies to the armed forces. Lots of small bases people don't know about or remember all over the place, but they don't have a lot of guys either. Then factor in that most of them aren't there out of love of country but simply a way out of the Atlantic provinces, and they aren't too likely to help the local mountie detachment in the event of a civil uprising. Some will, but they'll have their own problems to worry about before they ever get off base.
Let me regale you with a story from an ex-soldier former co-worker. One time they were running a bunch of tanks down the highway between bases. Had the treads off so they could move fast, and they were driving above the limit. A mountie showed up and tried to pull the convoy over. The commander of the rear tank just swung the turret around and lowered the cannon. Mountie took a hard-left across traffic into a median. There were no other attempted interventions before they reached their destination. Discipline for the tank commander? "Please don't fuck with mounties like that."
