I think if things continue along those lines, it will stay in the background and not become a full civil war. No one acknowledged the Tommy Chud fight, they had to latch onto something else for people to even remotely care. I don't think anyone cares enough about Kuihamn for his involvement to mean anything.
Since we're here, we might as well take a better look at this. I'm considering it practice for my IR Theories course lol
It used to be that whoever was the most recent addition to After Hours was most at risk for being next. But that isn't really true anymore. The last ones to leave have been Tipster, Bowblax, and Muta, commentators who had been engrained in the community for a while. This is probably because the commentary community has been less of a community. Before, staying in a group was important not just for your views, but as insulation from criticism, you had people to back you up and a shared audience. However, now that commentators are building up their own audiences, many completely separate from each other, staying buddy buddy isn't as important.
So looking at the players, who's most at risk for getting kicked out of the house?
Nick
Nah prolly not. He basically is the house at this point. There's a fat joke in there somewhere. Honestly, even if he fucked up a drama I think he could tank it. He's gone from video essays to streaming now, it's more about entertainment than credibility.
Augie
Again, probably not. He's been gone for a while but he's still a big name in commentary. He and Nick are basically the only ones left. He also has little stake in the game. He has another channel unrelated to commentary and keeps going on multi-month hiatuses. I don't think he really cares about optics or losing subs.
I also cannot see him and Nick ending up on opposite sides. Even if they disagree, I don't think they will actually align themselves that way. They've basically said as much. So if they have a united front, that's pretty much it. Both of them should be fine.
Tommy
This one would be interesting because it would pretty much prove what I said above. He was the guy who got most people on this list involved in commentary. I don't think he'll get kicked out, the same way you don't disinvite that one crazy uncle from Thanksgiving. Nick refuses to cover drama he's involved in, when Augie covers it he still prefaces it by saying he still likes Tommy and that they're still friends. I think it's more likely that he retires or leaves commentary to just do poker streams than getting kicked out and turned on due to drama.
Chud
He's pretty confrontational which puts him more in danger. I think he fell on the right side of the last drama, but that won't always happen. Honestly, I don't think that'll be the problem.
I think his tranny-chasing will be what kills him. If reddit accounts or God forbid Discord ERP messages leak that are just cringe enough, or something worse like grooming (I believe a weak form of both of these have already happened, there was like a 19 year old or some shit right?) I think he'll be turned on. He sided with Augie in the last drama, but even Augie has said before that Chud needs to get more shit for tranny chasing. This might be a unifier that ends another civil war.
Willy
I think we've sorta covered this. He's in a weaker position now in terms of credibility, what happens to his audience remains to be seen, his videos aren't very well researched. I think just one more big slip up could take him out. Nick sorta covered for him, but he's shown with Dan that he will call out people going after Hasan for dumb reasons that weaken the cause, so if Willy tries to cling to his audience by putting out a bad messy Hasan video, I can see Nick pushing back. I feel like he'd probably fold and apologize in that case, but he's pretty stubborn and we know where that gets you in this community.
Kuihman
I would totally see him as going next, but that would require people care about him in the first place. Does he even talk to anyone? He's a shit stirrer, he doesn't need to be a part of the community. He would continue along the same lines even if he got destroyed in a drama.
Tom
Not a part of the civil war but I thought it's worthwhile to cover him. I thought before that he was high risk, but I don't know if I believe that anymore. I don't think his greatest threat is commentary, that's the least of his problems.
Within commentary, he and Augie aren't that close, so I can see Augie going after him if he fucks up. But, Nick still does a podcast with Tom, a podcast showing no signs of ending soon considering they just redid their membership bonuses. Like I said before, Nick and Augie are friends and are not going to oppose each other in a drama. So within commentary, I think Tom is safe.
The real problem is his non commentary audience. He is sitting on a time bomb. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen his new normie fans become completely disillusioned when someone tells them he said the n word. 80% of them don't even know about Pyro. Now I personally believe Pyro was guilty, but that's not the narrative. When his new fans learn about it they are disappointed and leave to watch someone more "unproblematic"
If he slips up once, gets in drama with the wrong person, all this is coming out. Not streaming will probably reduce those odds, but it's going to happen someday, and he won't have an audience who can be swayed by his commentary friends' defenses.
This is going to blow up in his face.
Wildcards
Keemstar comes back to try and reinsert himself in the community, possibly another Keem sanctioned ceasefire.
John Swan comes back in the same way, everyone immediately refocuses on destroying him, the conflict ends.
When will it boil over? This time last year, the initial Bowblax drama started (Tommy C pills, bpd, non binary, etc), it died down, and it took until January for it to actually hit it's peak. I think something like that could happen again. Then again, last year they had a New Years stream that everyone was on to speed things along. Commentators now are even less interested in co-streams than last year. With less opportunities for people to actually interact, call each other out, and fight, who knows how long this could take?
I hope we'll get a new years stream, not because it could start drama, but because it's the the actual kind of content I like to watch. If things are still tense by then, I don't know if they'll risk it.