I had to take a look at the avatar thing, so I asked a couple of developers, not from Twitter, but that should be familiar with other websites API, if you could retrieve the pre cropped image someone sets in their TW profile. They don't think you can and doubt it would be a feature because it's a waste of space to save the entire thing. I also tried to upload a gigantic image on my own profile, but it seems like Twitter just crops it, then uploads, so what you see is what you get.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Then looking at the wayback machine, to my knowledge this is the absolute earliest archive of DSP's post with that image that anyone can check:
“Today's new Fire Emblem: Three Houses gameplay is now live and in playlist! Playthrough resumes this Saturday, so get caught up and enjoy! https://t.co/opTgK5vQsx”
web.archive.org
The capture was done 5-6 minutes after he posted the message (DSP> 6:47PM | Reply
≈ 6:53PM at 22s ago) and he already had the upper angle/cropped image set. He was preparing to go into his second stream for that day.
His previous Tweet was the one he always makes after finishing the first stream, 2-3 hours earlier, and didn't have any avatar:
“Reminder that tonight's late stream is the continuation of my Sleeping Dogs Definitive Edition playthrough! See you at 6:45pm PDT for some undercover fun!”
web.archive.org
If he followed his routine, it means he finished eating/whatever he does, then prepared for the later stream by changing his image and making the post above.
So the troll theory is only possible if
both these 2 things happened:
• DSP updated his profile with the Discord image, then re cropped it before 5-6 minutes passed after making that Tweet.
• "Rafters" was stalking DSP to such degree, he was able to get the initial picture before he updated it, and anyone else.
I've also put the Discord image in my profile to see it, there's no reason why he would've needed to re crop the image, not mention how lazy he is. If he was such a perfectionist in the first place, it would mean less time for Rafters to act and get it before it's gone, but both images look decently centered anyways. Reminder, he only uploaded this to Twitter by his own words, so no Instagram.
It's also cropped in a vertical fashion, which suggests he just used Twitter's built in feature to set the avatar, and Discord as well, but because it's a vertical phone image, he slightly misplaced it when he set it for Discord.
Now add all previous evidence. The amount of luck needed to pull something like this, along with things like LINE that make no sense if you believe DSP, makes it something more than a "conspiracy theory". Even without factoring in the intense following of him by this troll and the amount of money spent.
And of course, all this calculated planning would go to absolute waste if he debunked it when it was first brought up, imagine the risk and consequences of attempting this plan.