Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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They link to their Supplementary research materials (including their data, if you're interested!) in the OneDrive here. I've also attached their mathematical methods supplement pdf to this post.

That said, I share your skepticism about the preprint. At least from the quick glance I gave it, they're using pretty simplistic SEIR models to simulate the virus outbreak in-China and also out-of-China, and I'm always wary of basic reproduction numbers estimated using coupled ODE systems since they usually aren't informative above 1.

I mean, it's a nice toy for exploring qualitative dynamics of the virus spread I suppose. But I am very wary of them using such a toy to make quantitative IRL predictions.

Also worth noting is that they had to revise their absurdly high basic reproduction number R0=3.8 back down to R0=2.6 (as @Kaede Did Nothing Wrong notes in their post here).
your information is out of date, hong kong re-evaluated it to be around 3.3-5
 
Edit to include: No panic. Fear is a killer. I expect in a few months you can have a preppers picnic with all them cans of beans and spam, and all those dingy grey gym socks will be sanitary and sparkling white.

I try to tell myself not to panic. It wasn't until my city was mentioned where I started to get more nervous. The sensationalist stories don't help. The nervousness comes and goes but I do try to get myself out of the fear mindset.
 
The coronavirus' ‘transmission ability has become stronger’ - China's senior health official.
Any chance that the hazmat suits won't be enough?
I think this is just another attempt to save face by the CCP for how badly they fucked this up by being retarded.
 
your information is out of date, hong kong re-evaluated it to be around 3.3-5
That's a different paper, with a different mathematical analysis and so a different method of estimating R0. Interesting that they got one quite close to the other guys' original value of 3.8 though.
 
They link to their Supplementary research materials (including their data, if you're interested!) in the OneDrive here. I've also attached their mathematical methods supplement pdf to this post.
Thanks! I've missed it.
Also worth noting is that they had to revise their absurdly high basic reproduction number R0=3.8 back down to R0=2.6 (as @Kaede Did Nothing Wrong notes in their post here).
Huh, that doesn't look good on them.
I mean, it's a nice toy for exploring qualitative dynamics of the virus spread I suppose. But I am very wary of them using such a toy to make quantitative IRL predictions.
I agree. We shall see, of course, but I don't think their predictions will be accurate.
 
Amazon has lots of stuff still available.

Not as much as you might think. Went looking for masks for a relative today. Many masks on display, few available for purchase. Bought some. Paying a premium for quick delivery.

Re medical supplies in Wuhan, wonder if the local military units have opened up their war reserve stocks. Believe they have quantities of medical supplies stashed away for war. Well, this is a war, and people are dying. Hope someone at the Ministry of Defense realizes this and has the units provide the supplies. Would think the PLA has huge stockpiles of supplies and equipment away from the cities, safe from nuclear attack. Time to get some and send them wherever needed.
 
Not as much as you might think. Went looking for masks for a relative today. Many masks on display, few available for purchase. Bought some. Paying a premium for quick delivery.

Re medical supplies in Wuhan, wonder if the local military units have opened up their war reserve stocks. Believe they have quantities of medical supplies stashed away for war. Well, this is a war, and people are dying. Hope someone at the Ministry of Defense realizes this and has the units provide the supplies. Would think the PLA has huge stockpiles of supplies and equipment away from the cities, safe from nuclear attack. Time to get some and send them wherever needed.
the basic M3 respirators and Pink P100 cartridges and filters are still available to me.
 
OK, it's Jet Fuel Johnny again with some stuff for you, since this is moving at light speed and some of you are beginning to be a bit worried.

Let Uncle Johnny help you out with some quick stuff for you to download...

US Army First Aid Manual 2016

US Army NBC Manual FM 3-7 - 1994 (I know personally this one is good)

US Army FM 8-284 Treatment of Biological Warfare Casualties (Used for Masscal)

Boy Scout First Aid Manual

Free Survival PDF's

British SAS survival manual

For you Greenhorns/Weeblos in case you have to bugout...

All of this stuff (With the exception of the 3-7 Bible) is good for new people.

Don't WAIT to learn this shit. Don't go "Oh, I'll download it on the day" if you're fucking serious. Start downloading now. Read it, learn it, live it, love it.

BUT, the most important thing to remember, at all times, in all situations, is to master your fear and remain calm. THINK before you act if you aren't in split-second danger.

And if you live in the city, start looking at the map and figure an evac route. Check your county and city FEMA/Civil Defense sites for your disaster/evac routes. Avoid Interstate and Highways, go back roads. Look for "Old Highway XXX" or "Generic Historical/Old Highway" labels. The Interstate and the Highway will be clogged deathtraps.

Remember, Kiwis, take it from Uncle Johnny, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Thank you for taking time out of your day to do these. Hope your children and grandchildren stay safe - with you as the big experienced cheese I'm sure they will be fine c:
 
Some videos I've found on this.



embed the liveleak links
 
Not as much as you might think. Went looking for masks for a relative today. Many masks on display, few available for purchase. Bought some. Paying a premium for quick delivery.

Re medical supplies in Wuhan, wonder if the local military units have opened up their war reserve stocks. Believe they have quantities of medical supplies stashed away for war. Well, this is a war, and people are dying. Hope someone at the Ministry of Defense realizes this and has the units provide the supplies. Would think the PLA has huge stockpiles of supplies and equipment away from the cities, safe from nuclear attack. Time to get some and send them wherever needed.
Lol, there's no way military surplus is going to Chinese civilians. Who do you think the CCP is? The Peace Corps?
 
Just catching up on this and will talk to people at work about it today. The infectious during incubation thing is extremely interesting. Tinfoil hat time on but that one property is what would make me think it was either something dramatically new or tinkered with. Coronaviruses do not do that, that’s completely novel.

"I know of no evidence in 17 years of working with coronaviruses - SARS and MERS - where anyone has been found to be infectious during their incubation period."
I’d also take any data on the specifics - incubation time, death rate, with a giant pinch of salt just now. Even the full sequence may not be real. This sort of data takes time to collect and verify, and the Chinese have been very quick to put data out. We don’t know, and we won’t know until more samples are examined and more people are infected and recover/die.
Right now, it looks very infectious but not horrifically deadly. If it starts killing the young, we start to worry.

More importantly, the blame is currently being shifted towards local authorities. Expect lots of minor Wuhan officials to be made examples of
Yes and that’s why they will not ever have a solid and effective response. You cannot deal with things like this with ‘denial- crucify minor official-business as usual.’ You have to have a system where problems can be reported free of personal consequence or people will not report them. Anyone who has worked in an environment where they do regular CAPA type investigations knows this. If you punish the messengers, you dont get the message until it’s too late. I once saw a MN incident where the blame free system was changed so that any faults on someone’s watch became their fault. The initial fault rate dropped and the bean counters were overjoyed. Then they realised what we’d warned them about. The faults still happened, but were not caught in time to prevent major, major fuck ups.
As long as that culture is in place, plus wet markets, bushmeat, wild eating, spitting and high density population of humans and animals together, this will keep happening. It’s the perfect bio incubator
 
27/01/2020Dump #1 (major, verified and important information)
This is gonna be short, I'll make a larger post later. It was straya day.
Also I have to point out something, many posts include my own in this megathread contains misinformation and/or fake news. There's just no way to crosscheck everything. That's why I refuse to post "medical advice", I don't trust Chinanet armchair immunologists.
I plan to dump two types of information lots from now on. One would be translating Weibo autism, sharing memes and laughing at the stupidity, the other will contain information from verified sources that actually matter, such as attempts to gather information on the virus, the current polling, and posts from experts dispelling misinformation.


1. The 4 major politicians of the region, one is fired. They are called the "4 knights of Apocalypse".
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3 knights left, all of which are goofy fucktards. Politicians all around the globe seem to be just unpleasant people.
Left to right, mask not covering nose, maskless, and mask on fucking backwards.
By the way, Wuhan now fines people for not wearing a mask. Start from these idiots.

2. Wuhan houses 11,000,000 residents. 11 million. There's only 500 million left. This is according to Wuhan's own statistics, there's no reason to lie here. This basically means there are 600 million people from Wuhan scattered out there, aka escapees. We will be seeing the heads of politicians in the area rolling

3. People have taken it to their own streets attempting to block out the province of Hubei, such as filling the roads with junk so cars can't drive pass. This is illegal, but I'm sure no one would be against it at this moment.

4. 585 samples were gathered at the Wuhan Seafood market, 33 of which contains the new coronavirus, I'll refer to it as 2019-nCov from now on. 33 out of 585 might sound little, it's 33/585=0.05641 or almost 6 fucking percent! A sample can be just a swab swiped across the wall or some water. So 6 out of 100 contains the virus, it's safe to say that the place needs a firebomb.
Officially verified, the virus comes from wild animals.
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6. Weibo armchair immunologists claim that the virus won't survive long outside of the human body. This claim is called a lie, dangerous, and delusional.
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- Not all viruses are the same, just because AIDS and other STIs can't live outside of a host doesn't mean 2019-nCov can't.
- The virus definitely has a cure, it just needs to be made. I can't be bothered to look up all the technical jargon to translate that entire lot. It talks about analysis and some kind of cure to a recent illness called Hepatitis C developed by Gilead Sciences having a 99% cure rate, a medical miracle.
- He talks about some (CEIBS??) Public Spokesman being delusional in claiming that viruses don't threaten human lives.
- 70% of flu patients get it upon contact with contaminated objects, such as when someone sneezes on a door handle. Viruses can survive 24 hours easily in a dry place, such as elevators. This envisions the importance of face masks and hand washing.

Here's a long post with gifs where medical experts are working on viruses. It's said that EBOLA comes from bats as well, yuck. God's given right to eat animals my butt, God does work in mysterious ways, where fucked up people would eat bats raw and create some fucked up virus passing it onto innocent individuals.
Link
I hate these long Chinese URLs.

7. There's factories manufacturing FAKE 3M MASKS, busted. Whoever runs the factory should be shot, how soulless does one get?
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Masks are low quality, not packed in a clean room... it's better to not use them because the materials involved could be worse than the fucking virus.
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Fake on left real on right.
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Fake ones have shit printing, on the right is a fake.
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Font. Fake on right real on left. 3M font has diagonal stripes.

8. Something funnier...
1580110638667.png

"Difference between you and Blacks would be skin colour", says the comment. This is way funnier than Sargon's White Nigger remark, I'm stealing it for sure. Now that I seriously think about it, the comment manages to be simultaneously racist and not racist at the same time. It can mean "there's no difference among humans but skin colour, we're all the same inside and we have the same potential", or "you're a nigger but with a different shade of skin". Kudos Chinanet, what a brilliant comment.

The post is bashing some escapees from Wuhan getting mad at Shanghainese for their unwillingness to assist in their escape to Shanghai.
Yeah... right. I'm sure people from Shanghai would love more virus riddled idiots. These escapees used the good'ole method running throughout the thread, eating medicine to suppress the fever so they can make it pass detection.

Good to see the farms having virus prevention measures. The virus can be prevented, by autism spreads like an Australian wildfire.
 
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