Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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This guy seems a bit sensationalist, as he labels himself an "independent economist", but:

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[Medical care collapses, at least 100,000 people estimated to be infected! Lack of resources and materials, can only watch people slowly die!]

 
Bunny Tracks said:
Minor powerlevel, but I talked to my brother who's a doctor about this to get his opinion, and he said that the lengths that China is going to disturbs him. Keep in mind, he's not the kind of guy who usually gets freaked out over things.

"Quarantining entire cities, shutting down major tourist destinations like the Great Wall, and Shanghai Disney, closing all movie theaters, shutting down flights, censoring, and arresting people for speaking about the virus, building a new hospital just to treat it, sending in the tanks, and hazmat suits,-this not normal. These are not the first steps you follow to contain an outbreak, especially not for something like this. These are the very last things you do. You only do this when all hell has broken loose, or it's about to."

I asked him what he meant by all that, and what he said echoes pretty much what everyone in this thread already been saying. "China's lying. For them to be going this far means that things have to much worse than what they're telling us."
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I'm starting to wonder if the biolab theory is true.

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The Soviet Union had smallpox and anthrax outbreaks caused by accidental releases from bioweapons facilities before. Now throw in grorious middre kingdom.....
 
So the R0 number is how fast a disease spreads. If it's not above 1, the disease can't become a pandemic.

SARS was somewhere between 0.19 and 1.08, weighted heavily towards the 1.08 side of things.

archive.ph

Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS

archived 24 Jan 2020 16:12:00 UTC
archive.ph archive.ph

As mentioned up there, WuFlu's R0 is estimated to be ... 3.6 to 4.0.

Those are INSANE numbers.

R0:

Herd Immunity - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com

" This average number of actual transmissions should be at a maximum if all members of the host population are susceptible—in which circumstance it is known as a basic reproduction number (R0), defined formally as the average number of transmissions expected from a single primary case introduced into a totally susceptible population. "

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Since it's a new virus, we have ZERO herd immunity.

And it's as infectious as Influenza, if not Smallpox.
 
HTTP Error 404 said:
The PDF has it formatted a bit easier to read:

TL;DR: It's way worse than China is letting on, The Wuhan quarantine won't stop it, they predict 11k infections already with ~132k to 273k infections by Feb 4th.
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Fonebrowsing, I see the report was published today on that site, but what's the date it was written on?
 
But remember guys, China will become a global hegemon by 2040. This totally looks like the kind of medical crisis a global hegemon should be facing.
 
BillyGoat2 said:
Found this on Discord.
image0.jpg
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Considering that the virus has a longer incubation period and is highly contagious this flowchart would probably allow people who travelled to Hubei province but not Wuhan to slip through the cracks and spread disease if they're infected.
 
China shutting down all of its cities and transit tells me one important thing:

This is not just people with compromised immune systems getting it. Its young, healthy people. The reason Spanish Influenza was so deadly is that it didn't care how old you were, how strong you were, it cut you down regardless. So what we've got here is an abundance of healthy people, like the one Chinese who went to Paris getting infected. Now, we don't know the true death rates, but if people dropping in cities is to be believed, its not limiting itself.

The problem is fucking China. China is a trash nation, with trash science and trash ideology. The amount of sheer fake bullshit that comes out of their scientific papers dwarfs every other nation on Earth. Them having a level 4 bio lab is like telling an autistic kid who shits himself that its a playground. Thank fuck us and the Russians are the only ones who have smallpox in cold storage, otherwise who the fuck knows what China would do.

So China isn't telling us shit but what they're doing is that the situation is very clearly worse. Journalists are fucking re.tard.ed idiots if you believe they're quarantine 10 million people over 800 fucking cases and 30 something people dead. Fucking bullshit, that's just a severe flu season. I predict the numbers are at least 10 times that. 10k infected, 100-300 dead.

China has this massive culture of hiding your fuck up to not be embarrassed, so shit gets built wrong, you get these ghost cities, you get shitty scientific papers. Their trash culture will continue them being the fuck-ups of the world. It might get so bad India might actually be a super power before them and China will be like the Hilary Clinton of the world 'ITS MY TURN' every fucking year.

But all I can say is don't trust the news, Chinese culture is trash, and this is way worse than China is saying.
 
HTTP Error 404 said:
So the R0 number is how fast a disease spreads. If it's not above 1, the disease can't become a pandemic.


And it's as infectious as Influenza, if not Smallpox.
Click to expand...
Before everyone shits themselves it is as contagious as influenza or the mumps. Both diseases are highly contagious and spread easily in unvaccinated populations. That said proper hygiene, handwashing avoidance of large crowds are all easy methods of avoiding infection. Personally I live in a major city with a large academic population which means many students are just now returning to school from their homes. Many of the students are Chinese. While I certainly hope nothing comes of this I will be avoiding large gatherings of people, and will restrict some of my activities until I know more. I will certainly up the handwashing.
 
This whole thing really is going to turn out to be China's Chernobyl isn't it? With how fast things have been moving the last 48 hours I'm starting to get scared
 
That document thinks that 11k people are infected based on them expecting 95% of the infectees to not be detected.

That presumes that China is telling the truth of the number of detected cases.

They are absolutely not telling the truth about the number of detected cases.


It's a brand new virus to humans. That means we have 0 herd immunity.

So don't think "Spanish Flu" guys.

Think "Smallpox meets Native Americans."


There's a reason China is going into SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING mode already.
 
Return of the Freaker said:
This whole thing really is going to turn out to be China's Chernobyl isn't it? With how fast things have been moving the last 48 hours I'm starting to get scared
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On the upside Chernobyl was instrumental in bringing down the Soviet empire. So maybe this will be a watershed moment in Chinese history. Frankly, the United States need something like this or it will be eclipsed by China because they're running a 100 year marathon and we are quibbling over what restroom the gender specials should use.
 
I am the Muffin Maker said:
Before everyone shits themselves it is as contagious as influenza or the mumps. Both diseases are highly contagious and spread easily in unvaccinated populations. That said proper hygiene, handwashing avoidance of large crowds are all easy methods of avoiding infection. Personally I live in a major city with a large academic population which means many students are just now returning to school from their homes. Many of the students are Chinese. While I certainly hope nothing comes of this I will be avoiding large gatherings of people, and will restrict some of my activities until I know more. I will certainly up the handwashing.
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PROPER HYGINE?! SILLY CAPITALIST PIGDOG, THE PARTY SHALL KEEP US SAFE:

Judge Holden said:
Hmm...maybe forcibly substituting basic critical reasoning with mindless loyalty to the state wasnt such a hot idea
NmsvNZ4uweBSpYFJ.mp4

View attachment 1112883
- SON OF A CYKA DAFUQ DID MAO TEACH THESE FUCKING RETARDS?! -
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HTTP Error 404 said:
That document thinks that 11k people are infected based on them expecting 95% of the infectees to not be detected.

That presumes that China is telling the truth of the number of detected cases.

They are absolutely not telling the truth about the number of detected cases.


It's a brand new virus to humans. That means we have 0 herd immunity.

So don't think "Spanish Flu" guys.

Think "Smallpox meets Native Americans."


There's a reason China is going into SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING mode already.
Click to expand...

By the nature of our immune system, there are individuals everywhere immune to everything on this planet (not all at once), even something new they've never encountered. Our immune systems are built so that we're prepared for something new. Of course, this is completely random. Killing off the entire human species by a plague is extremely difficult. The secondary effects, sure.

I am the Muffin Maker said:
Before everyone shits themselves it is as contagious as influenza or the mumps. Both diseases are highly contagious and spread easily in unvaccinated populations. That said proper hygiene, handwashing avoidance of large crowds are all easy methods of avoiding infection. Personally I live in a major city with a large academic population which means many students are just now returning to school from their homes. Many of the students are Chinese. While I certainly hope nothing comes of this I will be avoiding large gatherings of people, and will restrict some of my activities until I know more. I will certainly up the handwashing.
Click to expand...

This is a novel virus whose infection rate is only guessed at as high (glad I called the 10k in that paper) and its mortality rate is unknown because China are massive fucking faggots who are hiding it because they don't want to look like the bungling re.tards that they are. We'll only know these things when smarter countries have to deal with this. I guarantee the CDC is already getting on this.

Just a reminder, the Spanish Flu was only 2.5% more deadly and it killed a 150 million people. This doesn't need to be crazy deadly or end of the world. Even if its just 1% or 1.5% more deadly, that could mean millions die. And the fact its infecting healthy people is most worrying, which is what made the Spanish Flu so awful.

I wouldn't make fun of anyone who is worried. China is hiding something and taking extreme means to bury this and they cannot be trusted. They're one of the worst members of the international community and everyone on Earth should prevent them of gaining any modicum of power. Thankfully, their culture largely prevents this.
 
DidYouJustSayThat said:
Fonebrowsing, I see the report was published today on that site, but what's the date it was written on?
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It references data published yesterday,so it must have been completed and published today
HTTP Error 404 said:
Think "Smallpox meets Native Americans."


There's a reason China is going into SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING mode already.
Click to expand...
eh its not quite that serious,yet at least. Mortality rate is pretty low,infection rate is definatly high.epidemics dont have to be killling people left and right to have a serious impact.

The main concern will be if the virus can evolve and change over generations and what that might mean going foward. On the upside having a long incubation period is actually beneficial in that regard.

China definatly have been lying their ass off here for sure,and they are panicking now because even a low mortailty virus thats super infectious would absolutly fuck their country,even just 1% of their population getting infected would be millions dead. Doesnt exactly portray the party in a great light :story:
 
Again, if this guy isn't sensationalizing things, hooboy.
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[More Everywhere began to destroy roads, dig pits, block themselves, and stop Wuhan pneumonia!]

They're blocking the highways.

 
I don’t know if anybody picked this up yet. But figure the healthcare workers are about to panic if true.
www.mirror.co.uk

Expert says coronavirus is spread through eyes as disease 'shuts down China'

Wang Guangfa, who contracted Coronavirus but since recovered, says protective eye wear as well as mouth masks are a must
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk

Expert says coronavirus is spread through eyes as killer disease 'shuts down China'
Wang Guangfa, who contracted Coronavirus but since recovered, says protective eye wear as well as mouth masks are a must


By
Kelly-Ann Mills
  • 15:35, 24 JAN 2020
  • UPDATED15:55, 24 JAN 2020
NEWS

World Health Organisation issues information on Coronavirus
World Health Organisation issues information on Coronavirus

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WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION ISSUES INFORMATION ON CORONAVIRUS


A top medic who contracted Coronavirus says the deadly respiratory disease is so contagious it can be transmitted through the eyes.
Wang Guangfa, who was a leading figure in helping China fight Sars in 2003, himself caught the virus but has since recovered.
Mr Wang says he believes he became infected because he did not have protective eyewear.
The respiratory specialist at Beijing’s Peking University First Hospital had reportedly been ridiculed in some parts of the media after he contracted the disease despite saying it was “preventable and controllable” two weeks ago.
The expert has now claimed that he may have contracted the disease because of a lack of eye protection when visiting fever clinics and isolation wards in Wuhan, in Hubei province, where the outbreak emerged.
The news comes as it emerged doctors treating sick patients are collapsing at work as hospitals become 'overwhelmed' in one city, the Daily Star reports.


0_1PAY-AsiaWire-EyesCoronavirus-01.jpg

Expert Wang Guangfa contracted coronavirus but has since recovered (Image: AsiaWire)

0_Coronavirus-virus-which-causes-SARS-and-MERS.jpg

3D illustration of Coronavirus which has already claimed lives (Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto)RELATED ARTICLES
He said: “At that time we were highly vigilant and wore N95 masks.
"But then I suddenly realised that we didn’t wear protective glasses.”
He says he developed conjunctivitis in his left eye after returning to Beijing and around three hours later he began had a fever and severe catarrh.
Mr Wang thought he had the flu at first as he had never seen a Wuhan patient suffering from conjunctivitis before.

0_Coronavirus-Pneumonia-Outbreaks-In-China.jpg

People are already using face masks and some places in the UK has sold out (Image: Getty Images)READ MORE
But later took the test for the coronavirus when flu medication did not work and he tested positive.
He said the most likely explanation of him contracting the virus was it entering through his eyes.
China's National Health Commission expert Li Lanjuan said that staff who had direct contact with coronavirus patients needed to wear protective glasses whilst other people only need face masks.

0_FILE-PHOTO-Medical-staff-carry-a-box-as-they-walk-at-the-Jinyintan-hospital-where-the-patients-wit.jpg
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Granted it’s the Mirror, and one Doc’s theorizing. But considering he did catch it, it seems valid.

So a SARS type respiratory virus, with near Ebola like transmission and infection vectors, in the city where China built a massive Military disease facility to research SARS and Ebola... and they are suddenly committing overwhelming military and civilian resources to the area in a response that seems several orders of magnitude above what would be needed for the publicly reported cases. Nope nothing to see here!

containment breach suddenly does not seem as crazy a conspiracy theory as it did yesterday.
 
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