Joe Biden might look like a relic. He’s an 80-year-old, White, establishment liberal leading an increasingly young, diverse and progressive party, which is why many journalists and even Democratic politicians often cast him as a purely transitional figure.
But Biden has a key strength that keeps him relevant: his connection to non-college-educated White Democrats.
These voters not only make up the party’s largest demographic bloc, but they also sit at the party’s ideological center. If Democrats want to continue winning elections, they need to keep Biden — or someone else who can appeal to this group — in the spotlight.
Democrats might be tempted to write off working-class White voters as lost to the GOP. But Democrats continue to win a substantial share of these voters. In fact, they gave Biden almost one-third of his total votes in 2020.
Some of these voters are simply Gen Z progressives who haven’t earned their diplomas yet. But many aren’t. According to the 2022 Cooperative Election Study — a poll of more than 60,000 Americans, interviewed before and after the election — half of blue-collar White Democrats are 50 or older, and one-third said they were politically moderate.
As a group, working-class White Democrats often stake out a liberal-but-not-fully-left position on issues. They consistently fall to the right of progressive, White, college-educated voters (the party’s second-largest bloc) but remain to the left of Black voters (the third-largest Democratic group). To see this dynamic in action, just look at abortion polling:
All three groups oppose total abortion bans and generally think abortion should be legal. But while many Black Democrats are open to mid-pregnancy bans, most White, college-educated Democrats aren’t. Blue-collar Whites sit right in the middle.
The same is true on a number of issues, including funding for police:
And on border security:
The same pattern emerges when pollsters ask each group of Democrats to place themselves on an ideological scale along with Biden, former president Donald Trump and the two parties:
Biden, unlike many Democratic politicians, seems to understand this fact. He’s constantly wooing non-college-educated Whites, emphasizing his roots in Scranton, Pa., and touting his connection to former president Barack Obama, who performed very well with non-evangelical, blue-collar White voters in 2008 and 2012.
Biden has also carefully positioned himself as the negotiator between blue-dog Democrats, true-blue progressives and even mainstream Republicans. And throughout his career, he has built a voting record that puts him squarely in the ideological center of the Democratic Party — roughly where White, blue-collar Democrats sit now.
That’s why Biden is still an essential leader for Democrats. He knows that if he bleeds just a few percentage points among blue-collar Whites, Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis might be able to gain the foothold the Republican Party needs to climb back into the White House in 2024. Biden’s carefully crafted persona is meant to keep enough of them around to secure a second term.
Make no mistake: College-educated professionals, young progressives and other non-White voting blocs are the future of the Democratic Party. Every year, these groups gain more power and blue-collar Whites become a smaller slice of the Democratic coalition. But the party has a long way to go before it can stop thinking about working-class White voters.
For at least the next few presidential elections, Democrats will need to find politicians in the mold of Biden — or Obama — who can hold onto this demographic while still capitalizing on the nation’s increasing diversity and educational attainment. If they don’t, they’ll lose touch with some of their core constituents, shed voters and ultimately forfeit winnable elections to the GOP.
But Biden has a key strength that keeps him relevant: his connection to non-college-educated White Democrats.
These voters not only make up the party’s largest demographic bloc, but they also sit at the party’s ideological center. If Democrats want to continue winning elections, they need to keep Biden — or someone else who can appeal to this group — in the spotlight.
Democrats might be tempted to write off working-class White voters as lost to the GOP. But Democrats continue to win a substantial share of these voters. In fact, they gave Biden almost one-third of his total votes in 2020.
Some of these voters are simply Gen Z progressives who haven’t earned their diplomas yet. But many aren’t. According to the 2022 Cooperative Election Study — a poll of more than 60,000 Americans, interviewed before and after the election — half of blue-collar White Democrats are 50 or older, and one-third said they were politically moderate.
As a group, working-class White Democrats often stake out a liberal-but-not-fully-left position on issues. They consistently fall to the right of progressive, White, college-educated voters (the party’s second-largest bloc) but remain to the left of Black voters (the third-largest Democratic group). To see this dynamic in action, just look at abortion polling:
All three groups oppose total abortion bans and generally think abortion should be legal. But while many Black Democrats are open to mid-pregnancy bans, most White, college-educated Democrats aren’t. Blue-collar Whites sit right in the middle.
The same is true on a number of issues, including funding for police:
And on border security:
The same pattern emerges when pollsters ask each group of Democrats to place themselves on an ideological scale along with Biden, former president Donald Trump and the two parties:
Biden, unlike many Democratic politicians, seems to understand this fact. He’s constantly wooing non-college-educated Whites, emphasizing his roots in Scranton, Pa., and touting his connection to former president Barack Obama, who performed very well with non-evangelical, blue-collar White voters in 2008 and 2012.
Biden has also carefully positioned himself as the negotiator between blue-dog Democrats, true-blue progressives and even mainstream Republicans. And throughout his career, he has built a voting record that puts him squarely in the ideological center of the Democratic Party — roughly where White, blue-collar Democrats sit now.
That’s why Biden is still an essential leader for Democrats. He knows that if he bleeds just a few percentage points among blue-collar Whites, Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis might be able to gain the foothold the Republican Party needs to climb back into the White House in 2024. Biden’s carefully crafted persona is meant to keep enough of them around to secure a second term.
Make no mistake: College-educated professionals, young progressives and other non-White voting blocs are the future of the Democratic Party. Every year, these groups gain more power and blue-collar Whites become a smaller slice of the Democratic coalition. But the party has a long way to go before it can stop thinking about working-class White voters.
For at least the next few presidential elections, Democrats will need to find politicians in the mold of Biden — or Obama — who can hold onto this demographic while still capitalizing on the nation’s increasing diversity and educational attainment. If they don’t, they’ll lose touch with some of their core constituents, shed voters and ultimately forfeit winnable elections to the GOP.
