Who will win the 2025 elections?

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ShahOfIran1979

ShahOfIran1979

Shah of Iran from 1941-1979
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Aug 21, 2024
There are a few elections in the US today, and I don't see a thread about them. The main important ones are the New Jersey and Virginia governor races, and NYC mayor election. There is also the California prop 50, meant to gerrymander in response to the Texas gerrymander, and a bunch of other city mayoral races. Do you have any predictions? It honestly looks like the Democrats will win all if most of these elections.
 
I like to look at poll data and analyze it based on aggregates, how accurate the pollster has been in the past, and other confounding data that pollsters may not capture. Got the 2024 election almost exactly right except for Michigan. Problem for Republicans is that they rely on Trump to drag their candidates over the finish line in a lot of these non-presidential races, and since he isn't on the ballot a lot of voters won't turn out. And a lot of voters like Trump but not any other republican. Which is counter-intuitive since you only hear about never-trumpers in the GOP. Seems to be common among 'Spic republicans especially. See Nevada. Dems barely pulled it out across the board even though Trump won the state. You can see that happen in places like Michigan too.
  • Spanburger wins Virginia by almost 10. I don't think it quite breaks 10.
  • Jones wins the Virginia AG race by a hair, probably less than a point. (Which will make me MATI)
  • John Reid keeps is surprisingly close for Lt. Gov but still loses.
  • Mamdani wins NY election by 14-15; Expecting massive turnout of youth. If I am wrong about the turnout or its makeup then 12 ish. (Sliwa was correct not to drop out. Let it burn.)
  • Sherril wins NJ by about 3. maybe 4.
NJ is the only one within the realm of possibility. There's been a lot of GOP efforts there lately and the polls may not be capturing certain galvanized demographics. That could swing it. If that happens it would be a good day for the GOP.
 
Democratic sweep. Have fun with your commie jeet, New York. I lived there for a bit while Bloomberg was mayor and it was alright. Can't they just elect moderate Jews again?
 
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