Venezuela's collapse - Socialism. Socialism never changes.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/16/w...inside-venezuelas-failing-hospitals.html?_r=1

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-floor-doctors-try-operate-without-tools.html

I'd call this whole story self explanatory really.

In a piss poor attempt at eliminating a medium-sized black market the government introduced strict new foreign currency laws, effectively banning the exchange of local currency for US dollars, Euros or British Sterling.

This has had a disastrous domino effect on the wider economy, with businesses unable to import and export vital goods and services, the economy has been slowly collapsing.

This has now begun to bite hard into the medical sector, with no ability to import much equipment and other necessities such as drugs Venezuela's hospitals are rapidly becoming a disaster zone.

This is in spite of the fact that the government of Maduro continues to spout out increasingly deluded statements and claims that Venezuela has a great healthcare system and isn't increasingly a bankrupted shithole that has run out of toilet paper, oil, and other basic necessities.
 
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*Asterisk* said:
This is the most horrified I've been of a conflict in my entire life. This could be a war on the scale of nothing South America has seen since the height of the FARC War.
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This is unfortunately only the beginning. This situation is going to get MUCH worse before it gets any better. And it may involve other countries in the area, as well.
 
Thing is, it seems that the current president isn't going to leave power until he's either dead or facing an armed intervention by some big nasty nearby nation with lots of guns.

Now, given that friggin' Coke has pulled out of production there, and a fairly prominent airline has announced they're not going to fly there, not to mention only being able to get water once a week, one can mildly assume that it's the bastard child of corruption and incompetence going on there.

Especially since through the reports that their oil production is struggling due to obsolete and poorly maintained equipment, since one would assume that if that's your main source of income, you'd want to keep that shit working properly.

Even the most corrupt or incompetent person would know that if your main money maker's not producing, you're not getting money to siphon off.
 
LegoTugboat said:
Thing is, it seems that the current president isn't going to leave power until he's either dead or facing an armed intervention by some big nasty nearby nation with lots of guns.

Now, given that friggin' Coke has pulled out of production there, and a fairly prominent airline has announced they're not going to fly there, not to mention only being able to get water once a week, one can mildly assume that it's the bastard child of corruption and incompetence going on there.

Especially since through the reports that their oil production is struggling due to obsolete and poorly maintained equipment, since one would assume that if that's your main source of income, you'd want to keep that shit working properly.

Even the most corrupt or incompetent person would know that if your main money maker's not producing, you're not getting money to siphon off.
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Venezuela is well on its way to becoming a failed state of the sort usually seen only in Africa.
 
LegoTugboat said:
Especially since through the reports that their oil production is struggling due to obsolete and poorly maintained equipment, since one would assume that if that's your main source of income, you'd want to keep that shit working properly.

Even the most corrupt or incompetent person would know that if your main money maker's not producing, you're not getting money to siphon off.
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Comrade Chávez, in his infinite wisdom, decided it'd be better to stack Caracas's State Oil Company with his buddies as opposed to people who actually knew what the fuck they were doing. He also decided to spend money on elaborate and hopelessly corrupted social welfare programs without saving any money from the boom years for a rainy day, or diversifying their economy in anticipation of a move away from oil. No one wanted to be the guy who tightened the tap and risk the volk's temporary wrath -- not to mention turning down the oppurtunity to swindle the money themselves -- they kept going until everything was sucked dry.

What really scares me is the refugee crisis that'll come from this. This is a country with the population of Iraq and they're all desperate to get out as fast as possible. They're gonna flood the whole Gulf once they come running, and it might spark just the sort of reactionary nativism Donald Trump's been depending on for his campaign's success. Who knows what the hell it'll cause in the rest of the countries nearby once the fleeing begins in ernest.
 
*Asterisk* said:
What really scares me is the refugee crisis that'll come from this. This is a country with the population of Iraq and they're all desperate to get out as fast as possible. They're gonna flood the whole Gulf once they come running, and it might spark just the sort of reactionary nativism Donald Trump's been depending on for his campaign's success. Who knows what the hell it'll cause in the rest of the countries nearby once the fleeing begins in ernest.
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Well, what other choices do they have? Run to Brazil (total mess in its own right), Chile (successful, but doubtful that they'd want anything to do with this), Argentina (see Brazil), or Mexico and, eventually, the US. That or either wallow in misery or risk being killed by forces still "loyal" (i.e. getting paid) to the government, random gangs, disease or malnutrition. This is a country where malaria is making a deadly comeback and opossums infested a hospital and killed 17 newborns. Let that sink in for a bit.

I can see Canada trying to be the hero and taking in as many as they can, because Trudeau. Unfortunately the sheer weight of so many people trying to come in will probably take that country down as well.

The thing that scares me more are the sheer atrocities that will probably occur on the roads traveled due to mobile gangs, smugglers and the infamous Mexican drug cartels. This could be getting very, very ugly in the next few months.
 
Maduro is pretty pissed because we impeached his butt buddy dilma who directly financed public works in Venezuela.
He also wants to pull off a Argentina move and invade and annex Guyana,forgetting a treaty in which brazil is Guyanas protector.
*Asterisk* said:
This is the most horrified I've been of a conflict in my entire life. This could be a war on the scale of nothing South America has seen since the height of the FARC War.
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We had worse and survived.
The Falklands was a good example.
Brazil was nearly dragged into it,we had to support both sides to avoid backlash.
We nearly got invaded by America if we hadn't declared war on Germany,we got involved in a kgb vs cia coup which CIA's faction won.
 
Why is it that South America has had a more prevalent history in terms of dictatorships, economic crisis, and socialism? Not too long ago (Mid to late 20th century) South America had its fair share of coups and armed conflicts. Why is South America going through a second round of internal conflicts?

My guess is that it has something to do with the ideology and idiosyncrasy of the South Americans. In my humble opinion, what happened in Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador in particular is that their governments tried to lift their countries to world power status with a neo-chauvinist mindset, a leftist policy, and an isolationist economic model in a globalized environment.

I'm still wondering how it happened (Haven't been to South America in 10+ years). During the commodities super cycle (The time when the term BRICS came to poplar use), these countries suddenly decided to ride the gravy train with no foresight of what would happen when the super cycle ended. My question is why?

Now, apart from Chile; which remains as a stellar example of taking the necessary precautions, and to a lesser extent Bolivia, in my opinion, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela, seem to have wanted to create some sort of geopolitical force against the current global liberal economy. This in itself would be in line with what the BRICS group claimed to be (An alternative to the World Bank and IMF), hence the BRICS bank. But the thing is, Why did they make it so vehemently against things such as trade, or market integration among countries outside South America.

I mean, I guess i get it. They wanted to do their own thing and stand out as their own unique thing, which is cool, but why so distant and against the rest of the world? I think the common consensus throughout history is that no country or block of regional countries can survive on their own; eventually, one way or another, they have to join the rest of the world, and be more about mutual cooperation and autonomy, right? I get it, Chavez didn't like the U.S. , but did he have to oust the American ambassador from Venezuela? Like, even if you don't like your enemies, the moment you isolate yourself and interrupt all means of dialogue you end up becoming more vulnerable; which leads to an internal collaps (Like modern Venezuela).

So, anyway, I'm hoping some South American kiwis can reply to my comment. I would very much like to listen to what South Americans have to say. Like I said, I would like to have some clarity and see if I'm wrong or not.
 
Pac said:
Why is it that South America has had a more prevalent history in terms of dictatorships, economic crisis, and socialism? Not too long ago (Mid to late 20th century) South America had its fair share of coups and armed conflicts. Why is South America going through a second round of internal conflicts?

My guess is that it has something to do with the ideology and idiosyncrasy of the South Americans. In my humble opinion, what happened in Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador in particular is that their governments tried to lift their countries to world power status with a neo-chauvinist mindset, a leftist policy, and an isolationist economic model in a globalized environment.

I'm still wondering how it happened (Haven't been to South America in 10+ years). During the commodities super cycle (The time when the term BRICS came to poplar use), these countries suddenly decided to ride the gravy train with no foresight of what would happen when the super cycle ended. My question is why?

Now, apart from Chile; which remains as a stellar example of taking the necessary precautions, and to a lesser extent Bolivia, in my opinion, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela, seem to have wanted to create some sort of geopolitical force against the current global liberal economy. This in itself would be in line with what the BRICS group claimed to be (An alternative to the World Bank and IMF), hence the BRICS bank. But the thing is, Why did they make it so vehemently against things such as trade, or market integration among countries outside South America.

I mean, I guess i get it. They wanted to do their own thing and stand out as their own unique thing, which is cool, but why so distant and against the rest of the world? I think the common consensus throughout history is that no country or block of regional countries can survive on their own; eventually, one way or another, they have to join the rest of the world, and be more about mutual cooperation and autonomy, right? I get it, Chavez didn't like the U.S. , but did he have to oust the American ambassador from Venezuela? Like, even if you don't like your enemies, the moment you isolate yourself and interrupt all means of dialogue you end up becoming more vulnerable; which leads to an internal collaps (Like modern Venezuela).

So, anyway, I'm hoping some South American kiwis can reply to my comment. I would very much like to listen to what South Americans have to say. Like I said, I would like to have some clarity and see if I'm wrong or not.
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Me and @AN/ALR-56 are Brazillians (hue). During much of the mid-to-late 2000s until early 2010s, we had a left-wing government that apparently worked. Slowly, much of the lower classes had better purchasing power due to increase of our social welfare programs, and we started being seen as a country of relative importance. But then corruption scandals (look into Mensalão and currently, Lava Jato operation) started to hit the news and the global financial crisis from 2008 hit the rest of the Western world. We managed to delay its effects for a few years, and while corruption is always bad, hey, we are not doing too bad, right? But nope, right now we are facing a full blown political crisis and lackluster economical output. We can still buy food and toilet paper and not die from fucking malaria, (though dengue is a constant threat, and zika decided to knock on our doors and say hi). But shit is getting expensive, and our healthcare system is, sadly, crap. All of this has been exacerbated by our corrupt government. Of course, most of our right-wing political parties may not be our optimal choice, but at this point, what else do we have? And don't get me started on our educational system.

Once I have my own income (still live with parents lel) I will try to spend as much as I can on bare necessities like food and water to stockpile for any possible meltdown on our stability as a country.
 
Dork Of Ages said:
Me and @AN/ALR-56 are Brazillians (hue). During much of the mid-to-late 2000s until early 2010s, we had a left-wing government that apparently worked. Slowly, much of the lower classes had better purchasing power due to increase of our social welfare programs, and we started being seen as a country of relative importance. But then corruption scandals (look into Mensalão and currently, Lava Jato operation) started to hit the news and the global financial crisis from 2008 hit the rest of the Western world. We managed to delay its effects for a few years, and while corruption is always bad, hey, we are not doing too bad, right? But nope, right now we are facing a full blown political crisis and lackluster economical output. We can still buy food and toilet paper and not die from fucking malaria, (though dengue is a constant threat, and zika decided to knock on our doors and say hi). But shit is getting expensive, and our healthcare system is, sadly, crap. All of this has been exacerbated by our corrupt government. Of course, most of our right-wing political parties may not be our optimal choice, but at this point, what else do we have? And don't get me started on our educational system.

Once I have my own income (still live with parents lel) I will try to spend as much as I can on bare necessities like food and water to stockpile for any possible meltdown on our stability as a country.
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Oh, OK. I thank you for your response. This, has certainly shed some light as to how the current situation in South America is. :heart-full:

If I may, I have one more inquiry. Hopefully, you will answer this too:

Why is it that the mindset of these left-wing governments endured, then thrived, and eventually made it to power in the mid-to-late 2000's? And I'm talking specifically about the mindset, not so much about the politics of it. Would you say it is a leftover from previous periods of internal conflict in Latin America? (The Chilean coup, Brazilian coup, the Venezuelan economic crisis of the 90's and its failed coup attempts, The Argentinian economic crisis, and the Perón era). Or would you say it has more to do with the fact that South America has historically preserved the ideals of Simón Bolivar, and therefore made it more aligned with a collectivist form of government?

Speaking of which, it is my understanding (I may be wrong), that this forms of governments and ideologies are more pronounced in South America than in Central America, and North America (Mexico only, since we're talking about Latin America, and the U.S. and Canada, are anything but influenced by Simón Bolivar).

Also, as a side note, I've noticed a kind of ideological divide among Latin America, there is this "struggle" between trade friendly countries (Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Chile to a lesser extent), and the more conservative/market-control countries (Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia). Would you say this is an accurate analysis? Your thoughts on this idea?
 
Pac said:
Oh, OK. I thank you for your response. This, has certainly shed some light as to how the current situation in South America is. :heart-full:

If I may, I have one more inquiry. Hopefully, you will answer this too:

Why is it that the mindset of these left-wing governments endured, then thrived, and eventually made it to power in the mid-to-late 2000's? And I'm talking specifically about the mindset, not so much about the politics of it. Would you say it is a leftover from previous periods of internal conflict in Latin America? (The Chilean coup, Brazilian coup, the Venezuelan economic crisis of the 90's and its failed coup attempts, The Argentinian economic crisis, and the Perón era). Or would you say it has more to do with the fact that South America has historically preserved the ideals of Simón Bolivar, and therefore made it more aligned with a collectivist form of government?

Speaking of which, it is my understanding (I may be wrong), that this forms of governments and ideologies are more pronounced in South America than in Central America, and North America (Mexico only, since we're talking about Latin America, and the U.S. and Canada, are anything but influenced by Simón Bolivar).

Also, as a side note, I've noticed a kind of ideological divide among Latin America, there is this "struggle" between trade friendly countries (Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Chile to a lesser extent), and the more conservative/market-control countries (Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia). Would you say this is an accurate analysis? Your thoughts on this idea?
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All I can answer is that specifically on our country's history, we wanted to get away from the horrors of the military dictatorship. If you want to consider that we did a conservative democracy -> social democracy transition, basically so we can be a socially progressive country, then yeah we did that kinda.

The rest of your questions require from me to do a deeper analysis of Latin American history and politics which I sadly don't hold much knowledge of. Feel free to research the subject for more though, and ask @AN/ALR-56 on PM or something! Right now this might get off-topic, but nice chatting!
 
"Venezuelan police arrest at least 400 people in the city of Cumana after food riots and looting broke out yesterday."

I wonder if the prisons can even feed all those people.

"Should there be a vote in 2017 and Maduro loses, his vice president would take over - rather than a new presidential election being held - meaning the ruling "Chavismo" movement would still be in power."

Well thats sucks.

Some part of me fears that future Venezuelan people will think the regin of Hugo Chavez as some sort of golden age while Maduro was a bringer of ruin, that it can be reborn. I would hope that they see that the pink tide, and Chavez, were failures to begin with.
 
i don't understand why Cuba is still showing solidarity to Venezuela and giving the middle finger to every other OAS member over the issue at a time when they are trying to normalise relations with the US. Venezuelan oil money and economic aid has long since stopped going to Cuba, and from what I have read, Venezuelans that were sent to Cuba for medical training or other education have basically stopped paying tuition to the Cuban universities because their Venezuelan scholarship subsidies ran out last year. At this point it is the Cubans who are losing money to the Venezuelans without getting anything in return.
 
millais said:
i don't understand why Cuba is still showing solidarity to Venezuela and giving the middle finger to every other OAS member over the issue at a time when they are trying to normalise relations with the US. Venezuelan oil money and economic aid has long since stopped going to Cuba, and from what I have read, Venezuelans that were sent to Cuba for medical training or other education have basically stopped paying tuition to the Cuban universities because their Venezuelan scholarship subsidies ran out last year. At this point it is the Cubans who are losing money to the Venezuelans without getting anything in return.
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It's mostly a ideological support.
Cuba still gets billions from its fake doctors that we pay every month.
 
Ghostapplesause said:
"Venezuelan police arrest at least 400 people in the city of Cumana after food riots and looting broke out yesterday."

I wonder if the prisons can even feed all those people.

"Should there be a vote in 2017 and Maduro loses, his vice president would take over - rather than a new presidential election being held - meaning the ruling "Chavismo" movement would still be in power."

Well thats sucks.

Some part of me fears that future Venezuelan people will think the regin of Hugo Chavez as some sort of golden age while Maduro was a bringer of ruin, that it can be reborn. I would hope that they see that the pink tide, and Chavez, were failures to begin with.
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I really doubt they can stretch their already anemic food supply that far. There is nothing left. There are only a handful of companies there that have outside connections who can get credit to secure food. If Venezeula nationalizes them as they are currently threatening, it would kill what little food they have still coming in.

The simple fact is that outside of Venezeula, the government has no credit with anyone who can supply them food.

The problem that the Chavismos have is they fail to realize that HyperInflation is a severe confidence collapse in the government. It is a political event that has severe economic consequences. Most people in Venezuela and outside of Venezuela have no confidence in Chavismoism or Chavismo leaders anymore. Hyperinflation is a symptom that feeds on itself.

They can keep trying to look for scapegoats, but the failures all lie in Chavez and his followers. As long as they rule, their country will suffer. Oil prices increasing won't fix it anymore.

I see 3 solutions to this:

1. Maduro can allow the dismantling of the Chavismo presence in significant parts Venezuela's body politic. It would give them the ability to reemerge again and keep the ideal to some extent intact. (Not likely happening without a fight because Chavismos are stubborn)

2. Cozy up with a country whose currency and food supply can sustain them. At this point, the only one I can think of that could fix this would be the United States. No other country near them can help them with this any longer. China is way overleveraged and quietly fighting a potential economic collapse of its own. Russia is still floundering under its losses from the oil/commodities collapse. Europe is a complete mess with a Brexit possibly coming. Brazil's situation speaks for itself. Mexico has more than enough internal issues of its own. Canada/Australia are also quietly fighting slowdowns from the Commodity Collapse. So pretty much the US is it. (Unlikely, but Iran was forced to do this)

3. Stretch this thing out as long as possible until the military takes a side. Even if it initially supports the Chavismos, it will have to fight them eventually. The fact is that the Chavismo's stubbornness is preventing the country from getting the global assistance it needs right now. The longer it takes for the military to turn on the Chavismos, the worse it will end for the Chavismos. Venezuela cannot survive being a North Korea Lite without a backer. North Korea only exists because it has a backer, China. A civil war will erupt. Chavismoism will die out in this path. A lot of people will have been starved to death or die for it to reach this point. The longer the duration of starvation and death at the hands of a failing Chavismo government, the more vilified they will become. (the most likely and awful scenario)
 
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