I hope the Trump Administration has more of a plan than scare the big bus driver with the really big scary boat the USS Gerard R. Ford. Maduro knows his military wouldn't last a few hours, but the Bus Driver likely hopes there's a bit of reluctance to move from menaces to military action. Disapproval of any US action from Putin or Gustavo Petro and Lula is not much of a protection. Putin could've made some little concessions on Ukraine meaning his disapproval on Venezuela might be some factor. Now it's nothing. Maduro probably hopes that Petro holds his whist and just concerns himself with Peru. Petro cannot just stay mean stuff about Trump without consequence. He's too close to the action to be like the President of Portugal and attack Trump and just be ignored. Likewise
words of disapproval from Lula might be counterproductive, altho Trump might sympathise a little over court cases, corruption claims and deep unpopularity.
Maduro's Defense Minister claims 'full operational readiness' and there's an app to report glowie stuff (Time). Maduro has to hope the 'nothing ever happens' rule holds.
venzuelasbesttroops.mp4
Maduro's super soldiers surely fill the Yanqui with fear
obviously the venezuelan military can't last a day against the USA in an armed conflict but for that to happen burgerland would have to be willing to commit to an indefinite occupation of a country were there is no realistic internal power alternative that can sustain the state post-chavismo on its own. I personally don't believe even bombing strategic assets would make much of a difference when it comes to regime change, its boots on the ground or bust. The government would seethe a bit about their burnt bases and carry on.
Without direct intervention Maduro could leave office today and it wouldn't make much of a difference , another random from PSUV would take his place and continue the regime with a bit of musical chairs, just as corrupt as always. There isn't any real opposition leadership or any insurgency with military power inside Venezuela that we know of, when it comes to arms its just chavismo and more chavismo. The MUD and Maria Corina are useless crooks without any real power, the USA would have to get dirty and possibly face a lot of political whiplash to secure the position for very cowardly and incompetent puppets. Its a big ask.
The Trump admin since the first time around works with the idea that pressure might make the government break from the inside but probably already knows that escalating beyond that is a fools errand, basically pozloading my negholep. Meanwhile Chavismo knows they just have to wait it out until the USA gets bored, elections come, policy changes, like it usually does.
tl, dr, nothing ever happens because Venezuela is a 916,445 km² Blackpill shaped like a country.
If i am wrong somehow and what i said is all stupid doomer nonsense i'll eat my words, but my money remains on the same chips, diamond hands on nothing ever happens.