UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

http://archive.is/1rEYe

Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...

• What are the midterms?
• What do the polls predict?
• Why do these elections matter?
• How could recent developments affect things?
• Could Trump be impeached?
• Will the youth vote make a difference?
• What does it mean for Australia?

Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.

How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”

Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

 

[Autistsforuganda]

It really makes me wonder, how many of these autists will stay at home during the vote, because they can't handle the "psychological pressure."

 

[Black4STA]

what fucking conventional wisdom? Do you honestly believe that after this two-year-long shit-fit that the Democratic party has been throwing, no amount of the general public has taken a look at it and gone, "You know what, Red doesn't sound so bad this year."

Elections are won by turnout. Not policy, not by some "this side is objectively the correct side" argumentation. And after winning the White House, the winning party is understandably more complacent, and the losing side understandably more fired up. The only recent(ish) exception to this rule was Bush, after 9-11.

And on top of that, you think that Democrats aren't, to put it mildly, annoyed by Trump? Of course they are, immensely so, and of course they will turn out to vote against Trump's party. Media is playing their part on firing up the Democratic base every day.

None of "but the economy is doing great!" will make one bit of difference if more people came and voted for D House candidates tomorrow. Only votes matter, and Democrats are more motivated to vote. That's it.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

So Dems are fired up by being annoyed by Trump, but somehow the reverse isn't true for Reps after seeing all of the absolute shit the 'progressives' have been doing for the past 2 years? I thought after the Kavanaugh fiasco, all those wonderful voter enthusiasm polls that showed Dems winning had evened up considerably.

 

[It's HK-47]

Elections are won by turnout. Not policy, not by some "this side is objectively the correct side" argumentation. And after winning the White House, the winning party is understandably more complacent, and the losing side understandably more fired up. The only recent(ish) exception to this rule was Bush, after 9-11.

And on top of that, you think that Democrats aren't, to put it mildly, annoyed by Trump? Of course they are, immensely so, and of course they will turn out to vote against Trump's party. Media is playing their part on firing up the Democratic base every day.

None of "but the economy is doing great!" will make one bit of difference if more people came and voted for D House candidates tomorrow. Only votes matter, and Democrats are more motivated to vote. That's it.

If they're so motivated to vote, where are they in the early voting numbers? As a matter of course, the Democrats have always outperformed Republicans when it came to early voting in the midterms, but this year's been incredibly unusual in that the opposite is true. Republican candidates are coming out ahead in some of these early voting statistics in double-digit percentages. The Republican lead in Florida's early/absentee voting alone is 122,000+, last I checked. The Democrats held a 99,000+ lead in that state in 2016.

I have no legitimate idea where you're even pulling your numbers from expecting this kind of massive Blue Wave. Even if every single "stronghold" state for the Democrats like California were to flush the entire board with straight Democratic candidates, the mid-term elections don't work like the presidential elections, and Democrats don't have the numbers to pull that sort of thing off across the entire nation, especially with the way they've been hemorrhaging funding and support for the past two years.

I guess it's really sort of pointless to start hurling tables around with fewer than 48 hours remaining, but I can't fathom what exactly has you so worried. You're talking about the general support for the Democratic party as if it didn't spend the last two years going absolutely apeshit. I know you've said in the past that "Democratic candidates have largely been running on a platform of Fuck Trump because it works for them" but it... It really doesn't. The general public is actually pretty fucking sick of hearing about other people bitch about Trump, even if they themselves don't necessarily support his administration.

Outside of the Twittersphere, the general public doesn't really give a shit about what social justice transgression Trump allegedly rolled his ass all over, today. The real world just wants to put on their boots and go to work, they couldn't give a shit less about all of this identity politics horseshit, and all of these candidates running on that as their sole platform accomplish absolutely nothing other than to completely turn off your average blue-collar worker.

 

[Black4STA]

The Republican lead in Florida's early/absentee voting alone is 122,000+, last I checked.

Democrats have now taken the lead. In fact, this always happens in specifically the final days of early voting in Florida, and Republicans do typically lead the EV before that.

I have no legitimate idea where you're even pulling your numbers from expecting this kind of massive Blue Wave. Even if every single "stronghold" state for the Democrats like California were to flush the entire board with straight Democratic candidates, the mid-term elections don't work like the presidential elections, and Democrats don't have the numbers to pull that sort of thing off across the entire nation, especially with the way they've been hemorrhaging funding and support for the past two years.

I'm not going to rehash everything from the past two years, but the post of mine that you linked which got a lot of 'disagree ratings' (but no actual rebuttals) is a good enough summary and still true today, every word of it.

..I don't know if you know how the US house works, but in fact, there are many House seats currently held by Republicans in California and other deep blue states, seats which they need to hold to keep a hold of the House majority. This is one of the reasons that Republicans are as vulnerable in the House as they are...

I do recommend at least taking a look of the House map in 538. You can say all polls are BS, we'll see, but if they're true its an excellent breakdown on what'll happen. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Outside of the Twittersphere, the general public doesn't really give a shit about what social justice transgression Trump allegedly rolled his ass all over, today. The real world just wants to put on their boots and go to work, they couldn't give a shit less about all of this identity politics horseshit, and all of these candidates running on that as their sole platform accomplish absolutely nothing other than to completely turn off your average blue-collar worker.

There have already been Special Elections in the "real world" where the "twittersphere" side has won in 2017 and 2018. Tons of them, in fact. Will it happen again tomorrow? Polls say yes. But to pretend that it can't possibly happen ... when it already has, multiple times now. So it is not at all impossible.

 

[It's HK-47]

Democrats have now taken the lead. In fact, this always happens in specifically the final days of early voting in Florida, and Republicans do typically lead the EV before that.

I'm not going to rehash everything from the past two years, but the post of mine that you linked which got a lot of 'disagree ratings' (but no actual rebuttals) is a good enough summary and still true today, every word of it.

..I don't know if you know how the US house works, but in fact, there are many House seats currently held by Republicans in California and other deep blue states, seats which they need to hold to keep a hold of the House majority. This is one of the reasons that Republicans are as vulnerable in the House as they are...

I do recommend at least taking a look of the House map in 538. You can say all polls are BS, we'll see, but if they're true its an excellent breakdown on what'll happen. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

There have already been Special Elections in the "real world" where the "twittersphere" side has won in 2017 and 2018. Tons of them, in fact. Will it happen again tomorrow? Polls say yes. But to pretend that it can't possibly happen ... when it already has, multiple times now. So it is not at all impossible.

All polls are bullshit, that's why I never cite a single one of them in anything I write. As to the rest of it: Fuck it, be scared. We'll meet back here in two days and you can breathe a sigh of relief or get all angry. I can't really tell, but for someone who's spent an awful lot of time talking about how much you don't want the Democrats to get a scrap of power, you sure place a lot of import on heavily left-leaning polls and spend an inordinate amount of time talking about how much the Democrats are going to win.

Also that entire fucking forecast model was drawn up by this guy:

Pretty sure I'm not too interested in anything Nate has to say, given his track record and the fact that most of his headlines these days go something like, "The Democrats Could Retake the House! Or not." Brilliant prediction there, thanks Nostradamus.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

How many special elections were there? Last I knew they were but a drop in the bucket, and in no way a predictor for the actual midterms.

 

[Black4STA]

We'll meet back here in two days and you can breathe a sigh of relief or get all angry.

Indeed.

I can't really tell, but for someone who's spent an awful lot of time talking about how much you don't want the Democrats to get a scrap of power, you sure place a lot of import on heavily left-leaning polls and spend an inordinate amount of time talking about how much the Democrats are going to win.

What exactly is the implication here? I don't predict an outcome I wish to see, I predict the one I see the most likely. I'm not going to ignore let's say, Special Election results, because I dislike them, or pretend they don't exist. Or fundraising, which is by far in favor of Democrats. By far.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...raising-edge-in-race-for-the-house/ar-BBOtYu1
(still true today, I just grabbed the first source I found)


But of course one of us is correct, and it will be known in two days time.

 

[ICametoLurk]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November


Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

 

[Linako 2.0]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November

[MEDIA=streamable]oassy[/MEDIA]
Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

That's no white person, that's a kike.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November

[MEDIA=streamable]oassy[/MEDIA]
Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

I guess it's worth to link some replies to her tweet.
https://twitter.com/IWantFreecos/status/1059143521976836096
https://twitter.com/PunishedRealist/status/1057412885121564672

 

[Gorilla Tessellator]

I guess it's worth to link some replies to her tweet.
https://twitter.com/IWantFreecos/status/1059143521976836096
https://twitter.com/PunishedRealist/status/1057412885121564672

Wow, I didn't know that accounts like PunishedRealist still exist on Twitter! He is describing himself as an ethno-nationalist!

How come he survived the purge?

 

[redlenses2112]

There have already been Special Elections in the "real world" where the "twittersphere" side has won in 2017 and 2018. Tons of them, in fact.

Would you care to pinpoint to a single instance of the perpetually aggrieved, intersectional, chronically sadbrain, low-funcing sociopathic furry hipsters on twitter actually swaying an election (no matter how minor) to the D's?

 

[Fareal]

"What if women were objectified to the point where their entire argument could only be summarized as, "You no get snoo-snoo."

I'd laugh and say it's hilarious that whoever wrote this assumed that every woman alive was anti-Trump and determined to blackmail people with their vaginas. Next question.

Read this and laughed.

That’s a lot of fucking words to not say ‘women are the sex class’. Because that’s radfem talk and radfems are terribubble and must be burnt at the stake now, y’all. I have never seen someone discuss this topic whilst so carefully avoiding touching on any radfem sources/writers.

You marry him, you have to fuck him. That’s how life works. Don’t want to? Don’t get married. Easy peasy. But don’t get married and then write risible articles that amount to “I discovered how life works and I dun like it!!”

Saw this discussed today and thought of A&H: https://www.theguardian.com/culture...ism-we-are-irrelevant-and-outdated-bystanders

No link to the Fry talk itself, but the general precis is interesting. Has the political centre collapsed for a generation?

 

[misterduckford]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November

[MEDIA=streamable]oassy[/MEDIA]
Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

African Americans are .15 percent of the populace, crazy lady. That is the level of diversity that should be reflected in politics and entertainment. Move along.

EDIT: Presuming that's who you're pining for, my well-adjusted friend. I can't be bothered to read much of your content.

 

[Butta Face Lopez]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November

[MEDIA=streamable]oassy[/MEDIA]
Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

The balls on some people, deciding that “Yeah this is the look I’ll go with” and still believing they can tell other people how to behave

 

[Super-Chevy454]

Wow, I didn't know that accounts like PunishedRealist still exist on Twitter! He is describing himself as an ethno-nationalist!

How come he survived the purge?

Unless PunishedRealist might have some good connections, it's a miracle then he's still on Twitter.

 

[Corbin Dallas Multipass]

Oh yeah, sex strike talk again. Women are sex dispensers again? Oh, you guys were doing pretty well with your liberation, but the revolution demands control of your vagina now.

This sex strike talk always pisses me off, but it is useful for all the dudes out there dating. If the woman you're dating shows any inclination toward this sort of thinking, get the fuck out now. Someone using the intimacy of the relationship to try to control your behavior is just trying to control you.

Or just lie and get laid, if that's your thing. Just don't expect any kind of honest caring relationship to come from it. Because there will always be something else down the road.

 

[Sissy Galvez]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1057006071301079042

Ilana Glazer wants to see America defeat white supremacy and elect representatives who reflect the diversity of our country — make your plan to vote before November 6th

As a white person with two really sweet parents and a sweet big brother, I haven't had a reason to become an activist, I haven't had a reason to be political.

Because I'm a white woman, I didn't understand until I had to understand that my body is political, that my words are political […]

We actually have the chance to roar back at White Supremacy this November

[MEDIA=streamable]oassy[/MEDIA]
Some Pics of this Brave White Woman combating White Supremacy

Spoiler

This is so ridiculous and it will make Beto’s loss all that much sweeter.

These people are irrelevant and do not have an impact on electoral outcome. Woke twitter will high-five and say yaaaaaaas queeen, slay but in the end era Americans outnumber them and they’re tired and pissed off about this bs.

 

[Kari Kamiya]

One of my favorite examples of a sex strike that I was trying to find was the one about a village/small town where all the women agreed to have a sex strike until their husbands got the well fixed or found a cleaner/easier water source that lasted like a good month or so until the men complied. But while looking (found my second-favorite example in the meantime), I came across this article from last year and had a good laugh.

Janelle Monáe suggests women go on a sex strike until men are ‘fighting for our rights’

Monae, who spoke at the Women’s March on Washington in January, said it’s time more people “start respecting the vagina.

“Until every man is fighting for our rights, we should consider stopping having sex. I love men. But evil men? I will not tolerate that. You don’t deserve to be in my presence,” she said.

“If you’re going to own this world and this is how you’re going to rule this world, I am not going to contribute anymore until you change it. We have to realize our power and our magic. Because I am all about black-girl magic, even though I’m standing with all women. But this year? This year, I am so carefree black girl.”

I hear "Lysistrata" is a funny play, though. Just saying.

Speaking of election dreams, last night in my dreams there was a passing scene from where the news was showing Democrats surfing the blue wave and screaming so much their heads exploded, and their bloody headless bodies crashed into the rocks. I don't remember my reaction, though, think I just shrugged it off and returned to whatever I was doing.