UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

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November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!
It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

http://archive.is/1rEYe
Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...
Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.

How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”

Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Matt-Drudge-Tweet-620x298.jpg

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.


The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/
 
DpHZ_XyXcAAZQ3Y.jpg:large


:story: This is great. Please people, campaign more like this.

View attachment 566715

Do you want a Hero or a Hero?

When did Nostalgia Chick from Kickassia become a Democratic Candidate?

kickassia.jpg


Also wtf

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2012
Just how scary far left is Kyrsten Sinema running in Arizona's CD9 for Congress?[/paste:font]

Guy Benson has really nailed it with this revealing expose on Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who was once awarded the Vladimir Lenin award from the Arizona Federation of Taxpayers for being the furthest left member of the Arizona State Legislature. Don't believe her pretend transformation over to the mainstream, which includes a radical change in her appearance to look more moderate. Read his article at Townhall here.

We sure its not just Nostalgia Chick in a blonde wig?


 
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This is just like eight years ago, when the Republicans ran on a platform of "we're not Obama!" and "Half of the country are garbage people!", and they rode that wave to a landslide victory in 2012. Oh wait...
Agreed, it was very effective in the off-cycles though. And bear in mind, that effectiveness made it so that Obama couldn't enshrine his policies in law, replace Antonin Scalia, get left-leaning treaties through the Senate, etc.
 
Don’t care about seats cause fuck if I recognize any names on any ballot ever.

Excited to vote because one of the questions for my state involves overturning tranny protection laws.

Can I ask, what does your state's tranny protection law entails?


Thanos is purple for a reason.

Perfectly balanced. As all things should be.

Fritzthecat.gif

8xM1ftB
 
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Decided to do some research on candidates who are on the ballot for my state and came across this person running for State Auditor
Article
Article said:
She said she’s not sure what she would do differently from Janssen and she’s still learning about the office.
A cow in the making.jpg

"I'm running for office! If only I knew what that office was for!"

Edit: Reorganized for slightly easier reading
 
Decided to do some research on candidates who are on the ballot for my state and came across this person running for State Auditor
Article

View attachment 566874
"I'm running for office! If only I knew what that office was for!"

Edit: Reorganized for slightly easier reading

There are a ton of legacy positions at the State and Local level that are redundant and have been taken over by other paid bureaucrats. For example, many townships on the east coast still have the position of "Constable" dating back to the colonial period. they have no portfolio as all these towns have police departments now, but they never bothered to take the position off the books. Meanng Anyone can walk up to the registrar, and pay the fee to get on the ballot and win by default as these positions tend to go unopposed. You probably won't get paid or if you are, not much. But you get a sick title. My own hometown still holds an election for "City Treasurer", but the treasurer doesn't have anything to do as all the finances are handled by the city comptroller which is hired by the council. So the treasurer just gets a desk and small office in city hall and does "stuff". Usually free financial advice for low income people.

Some enterprising kiwi should look and see if any such things exist in their neck of the woods and report back on their success.
 
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Here’s a stunning example of just how disorganized and in bad shape the Dem’s actually are. They let this happen.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/poli...logs/political-notebook/article219021960.html

TLDR, T. j. Fox is the Dem candidate for California’s 21 House District. This is a long standing GOP held seat in Fresno, CA. This is a MUST WIN seat for the Dems to retake the House. All the statistically reasonable models for Dems taking the House require this seat. They require them sweeping up the CA GOP seats. Take careful note of that... because the Fresno Bee, the local paper just discovered that the Dem candidate, Fox, lives in Maryland. That’s his Primary tax residence. Let that sink in! This is the candidate that they let get on the ballot for a must win seat. In Pelosi’s State and Domain no less. That’s the lack of organization and control.

This is not a symptom of a “Blue Wave”. It’s more a sign of an incoming deep disfunctional party meltdown. Yes problem candidates slip through. But did nobody do any basic checking? This isn’t College Witchcraft or High School Social Media rampages. This is current tax and property records. The party is supposed to check that out before endorsing. They clearly didn’t.
 
Decided to do some research on candidates who are on the ballot for my state and came across this person running for State Auditor
Article

View attachment 566874
"I'm running for office! If only I knew what that office was for!"

Edit: Reorganized for slightly easier reading

So that's what female soy face looks like.
 
Let that sink in!
People who use this phrase should be shot in the back of the head. I do not need to be told to take a moment to sit down and collect myself under the sudden impact of imparted wisdom you've just delivered. I am capable of reading.

The truth nuke you just dropped that required explicit warning I may need to take a time out to handle it is: he's an out of state candidate. About 1 in 20 members of the house are registered to vote outside their district. It's not as shocking as you'd hope. I don't know how many Congresspeople were actually born in their district but I'm sure it's almost none of the Democrats and only a handful of the Republicans.

When people vote they just go down the ballot for their team. Where they live doesn't matter. The question is: "has the two-party conflict of eternal war shifted far enough into Team A's field that more of Team A is going to show up to vote for Team A?"

"The president's party always gets shellacked in midterms. It's only twice, 1934 and 2002, that the president's party actually gained in both the House and the Senate."
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-...sidents-always-get-shellacked-midterm-electi/

Presidents rarely meet their political goals in the first two years and their voters don't turn up in the midterms while the opposing team does. Problem is, Trump has accomplished many of his goals and I think the Kavanaugh swearing in was divisive enough both teams are going to be motivated.
 
Well, carpetbagging is a vote loser. On the other hand, you conveniently left this part of the article out of your quote:

After the story published online, Andrew Godinich, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the state of Maryland automatically marked the home as Cox’s principal residence, but it’s not.

In a statement released before the story published online, Cox campaign spokesman Phillip Vander Klay accused Valadao’s campaign of resorting to “misleading attacks.”

“TJ Cox proudly lives, works and raises his family here in the Central Valley, and has for the past 20 years,” Vander Klay said.

You also called him Fox instead of Cox and failed to mention that he already, openly, switched districts because this one had a less crowded primary than the 10th district.
 
Presidents rarely meet their political goals in the first two years and their voters don't turn up in the midterms while the opposing team does. Problem is, Trump has accomplished many of his goals and I think the Kavanaugh swearing in was divisive enough both teams are going to be motivated.

My question would be, just how connected are both teams to the electorates they need to get marching to the poll booths?

While the Kavanaugh schtick may well have riled up the activist fringe of the dems, does this translate to the normie dem masses being willing to go out and vote in enough numbers to make a difference? I mean, im honestly not expecting any 2016 style electoral upset on the side of the republicans (as tempting it would be to imagine the reactions) but from what I see the problem the dems have been having a while now is that the average democrat leaning voter seems more willing to just stay at home come voting season than they did before
 
People who use this phrase should be shot in the back of the head. I do not need to be told to take a moment to sit down and collect myself under the sudden impact of imparted wisdom you've just delivered. I am capable of reading.

The truth nuke you just dropped that required explicit warning I may need to take a time out to handle it is: he's an out of state candidate. About 1 in 20 members of the house are registered to vote outside their district. It's not as shocking as you'd hope. I don't know how many Congresspeople were actually born in their district but I'm sure it's almost none of the Democrats and only a handful of the Republicans.

When people vote they just go down the ballot for their team. Where they live doesn't matter. The question is: "has the two-party conflict of eternal war shifted far enough into Team A's field that more of Team A is going to show up to vote for Team A?"

"The president's party always gets shellacked in midterms. It's only twice, 1934 and 2002, that the president's party actually gained in both the House and the Senate."
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-...sidents-always-get-shellacked-midterm-electi/

Presidents rarely meet their political goals in the first two years and their voters don't turn up in the midterms while the opposing team does. Problem is, Trump has accomplished many of his goals and I think the Kavanaugh swearing in was divisive enough both teams are going to be motivated.

Out of District is quite normal. But Out of State is not. It's one of those things that is generally disallowed at the State level. For obvious reasons. It is something that they are supposed to check on.

My question would be, just how connected are both teams to the electorates they need to get marching to the poll booths?

While the Kavanaugh schtick may well have riled up the activist fringe of the dems, does this translate to the normie dem masses being willing to go out and vote in enough numbers to make a difference? I mean, im honestly not expecting any 2016 style electoral upset on the side of the republicans (as tempting it would be to imagine the reactions) but from what I see the problem the dems have been having a while now is that the average democrat leaning voter seems more willing to just stay at home come voting season than they did before

That depends a great deal on the locality. Those areas most likely to see a surge in engaged Dem voters from the Kavanaugh spectacle are by and large already solidly Blue. So it will have minimal impact on the House Races beyond hardening the already existing seperations. It may have some impact on the Senate or Governors Races in those states if it increases the more urban turnout on an off year. For example you will see more outraged San Francisco types go out an vote. Boise Idaho? Not as much. Or the outrage os more likely to surge in the other direction.
 
I could see Kavanaugh going any number of different ways. There really is no way to tell right now how it all played out. That said, whatever advantage it gives Republicans now, it is not equal to the one they lost by not being able to force Joe Donnelly, John Tester, Bill Nelson and Claire McCaskill to take tough votes on a clean nominee (Heitcamp and Manchin would have certainly voted yes.)
 
Can I ask, what does your state's tranny protection law entails?
Just protection from discrimination same as race, religion, biological gender, age, etc. 2 years ago they added “gender identity” to the list so firing somebody because they identify as a woman while biologically male is currently illegal and has happened before the law. There’s a vote to repeal those protections but I doubt it’ll happen since Mass was the first to legalize same sex marriage and would be the one state in New England to not have those protections.
 
Just protection from discrimination same as race, religion, biological gender, age, etc. 2 years ago they added “gender identity” to the list so firing somebody because they identify as a woman while biologically male is currently illegal and has happened before the law. There’s a vote to repeal those protections but I doubt it’ll happen since Mass was the first to legalize same sex marriage and would be the one state in New England to not have those protections.

This one always bothers me. How do you allow somebodies "Subjective Reality" to become a legally protected class? I mean the traditional elements regarding discrimination laws were race and gender. Things that had a real world objective test before the courts. But how do you prove in court that you are gay or trans? How does the other litigant challenge any such claims? It requires everybody be subjected to laws enforcing what goes on in an individuals head. Which always strikes me as extremely poor lawmaking. I'm not saying people should be fired for being gay or trans. Just that such protected status has some issues when applied to law.
 
True, but, like all "protected class" law, it doesn't mean you can't fire someone for being incompetent at their job, I'm not a fan of firing someone for subjective feelings about their objective state of being (race, religion) or even their subjective prefferences (favorite color or TV show)

If they can do thier job, let them, if they can't? Sure. Fire them, the problem is that so many incompetent people claim protected status to frustrate employers enough that they won't actually try it, and when the protected class is "how I feel on the inside", something anyone who wants to be a pain can fake indistinguishably from someone sincere? That's where this bullshit wastes society's resources.
 
This one always bothers me. How do you allow somebodies "Subjective Reality" to become a legally protected class? I mean the traditional elements regarding discrimination laws were race and gender. Things that had a real world objective test before the courts. But how do you prove in court that you are gay or trans? How does the other litigant challenge any such claims? It requires everybody be subjected to laws enforcing what goes on in an individuals head. Which always strikes me as extremely poor lawmaking. I'm not saying people should be fired for being gay or trans. Just that such protected status has some issues when applied to law.

How do you prove someone follows a religion? People have filed claims that they were fired due to the tenets of their religion requiring facial piercings. (The Church of Body Modification) The case is Cloutier v. Costco. While Costco won the case since they offered her accommodations and she refused, the court declined to rule on whether the Church of Body Modification was officially a “religion.” This is a subject that courts really don't like to handle. I expect a case involving gender identity would go similarly.
 
I also think religion is an iffy protected class (because politics isn’t as found by the court case where a man was kicked out of a bar for wearing a MAGA hat that ruled in favor of the bar) but remember one of the reasons America was started was freedom of religion. As for protection because of race, there was a thread here about a guy whose ancestry said he was 12% black or something so who can deny that he’s black and thus exempt from minority business owner tax credits?

Politics is consistently inconsistent about many things.
 
Gonna have to push back on America being founded on freedom of religion. That is patently not true. All 13 of the original states had official state religions that were formally abolished by the Federal constitution, or just a few years before it. The first State to abolish State based religion was Virginia, and that was done in 1786, 3 years after the war had ended. (I think Rhode Island was earlier, but nobody cares about Rhode Island). It was a near thing too, as the Episocopal Church (Virginia's state religion) pushed back hard against Mr. Jeffersons heresy. In the end, the people pushing to get rid of official religion prevailed, not because of some grand revolutionary narrative (though they used such language) but because the horrific religious wars of the Protestant reformation were recent history at the time of the American Revolution, and the new nation wanted to make a solid break from what they saw as the excesses of Europe.
 
Presidents rarely meet their political goals in the first two years and their voters don't turn up in the midterms while the opposing team does. Problem is, Trump has accomplished many of his goals and I think the Kavanaugh swearing in was divisive enough both teams are going to be motivated.

This honestly. I think the Dems are gonna make gains in the House but its not gonna be a blue wave nor give them control. Senate is obviously staying red because of how fucked the Dems are this year with seats up for grabs. Many Midterm elections sorta sneak up on you. You don't really know their coming until its like a month or few weeks beforehand so it slips people's mind. However since 2016, people have been screaming about the midterms, making sure everyone knows about them, ensuring a bunch of people are ready to go out and vote. Trump has proved he can rile his base up to come out in droves to vote for him. Dems still haven't shown it beyond a few easy wins in special elections. 2018 mid terms is a make or break task for them.
 
make or break task for them

Honestly if they can't pull there shit together for this mid-term and the following presidential election i think we might see the collapse of the democratic party. They only people they have are fanatics that would vote for them even if they wanted to put people in gas chambers. They seemed to have lost the ability to compromise. They are children they either get it there way or they throw a tantrum.
 
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