UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

RodgerDodger · Oct 11, 2018

Truthboi said:
I wonder why do people think the Democrats will lose? Not saying I support them but what backing do people in this thread have for that assumption?

To step away from the shitflinging for a bit, really because of how the math works out. The truth is while the Dems and GOP have about the same population, with maybe a slight edge to the Dems. The dems are much more concentrated in the denser urban areas. That why the electoral maps look like a sea of red with tiny blue islands around the major urban centers and the west coast. This balances out during national elections (assuming the media isn't playing games with the poll interpretations in order to suport a narrative and thus effect turnout like they did in 2016). But Mid Terms are different. They are District by District. What happens in one has no impact on the next. And the GOP holds far more land in this regard.

Now this isn't that obvious to the casual observer because the media keeps touting double digit Dem advantages, but the dirty secret that they don't tell you is they are basing this on the "Generic Voter Preference Polling" Which is "National Polling". Nobody save the sampaigns themselves is doing granular District by District polling in the House Races. Nobody! It costs too much, is to ineffective, it is hard to geopraphically issolate the respondents these days etc. So at best it is a guessing game.

Over on the Senate side, the Dem dreams of a Senate takeover are at best pipe dreams and this has always been the case. The map this year is horrible for them. Disastrous. They would have to sweep the election to have a chance. But they are defending 3x the seats that they are challenging. With all of their MOST vulnerable Senators, Dem Senators from states that went full bore Trump in 2016, up in November. No matter how you slice it the math just isn't there. It would require a cratering economy and a massive scandals to achieve what they need to. A sense of National Malaise and a feeling of anger towards the Majority Party.

Which brings us back to the root problem with all of these "Wave" predictions. Blue or Red. The partisan Battle Lines are well drawn at this point, with very few districts in play. We have a booming economy and a President, who while loathed by the far left, has actually largely delivered on all of his goals, and a Congress that is finally falling into line behind the excitingly colorful and bombastic fellow who violates every traditional norm. So while traditionally the Presidents Party loses House Seats in the MId Terms, This really feels more like a Status Quo election. You will see a few seat change in either direction, but you're not going to see any waves.

The Dems have three major problems going into Novenmber. The first is the economy is banging on all cylanders for the first time in a decade. The same Dems told us to get used to the "New Normal" a few years back have now been proven wrong. Voters get resentful about that sort of thing, and they most often vote pocket book issues. The 2nd problem is that most of their complaints, the core of their campaign issues, come down to "Other Peoples Problems". Immigration issues and children in cages at the border will drive news article clicks. But voters vote their and their own families interests. Not someone elses. No electorate has ever elected to let in more invaders to take more of their jobs and cause more problems in their community. They may feel compassion for those kids on the border. But they vote to keep MS-13 away from their own. The term commonly used is "Rational Self Interests". Voters vote for their own. The Dem platform, what there is of it, is all about somebody elses, not the voters. And the 3rd point is quite frankly Trump and the GOP keep winning. They keep putting wins on the board. Winning carries a huge political momentum. People vote for the winning team. The team that is delivering. Schumer and Pelosi are not that team right now. Obama was, and that carried him through three election cycles before completely flaming out in 2014. Trump and the GOP are still on the upward arc.

The House may flip. It is going to come down to a handful of hard fought districts in areas in flux. Some long standing GOP Districts in California are threatened, some solid Dem districts in Florida look shaky. The only direction the Senate is moving is a larger GOP majority, but not enough for a Super Majority. My guess is they pick up three.

Sweet and Savoury · Oct 11, 2018

The state of modern polling (utter shit) makes anything guesswork

Normally the party not in the Whitehouse makes solid gains during the mid-terms buuuuuuut...

this has been anything but a normal year and a normal election so honestly I have no clue what will happen.

Will the outrage culture manage to rally enough Democratic voters to actually show up and vote? Democratic mid-term turnout is typically pretty anemic but maybe the white women will turn out for them this time? God knows the blacks and latino's don't give a shit about Kavenaugh.

Will the biased, outrageous attacks on Kavenaugh rally the GoP voters to turn out to punish the progressive-regressvies? Will the dirty white males turn out again to vote?

God I hope so.

Nothing would get me harder then seeing the GoP run the Democrats out of the House. Maybe then and only then (big maybe) will the Democrats rethink this Id Pol culture as main methodology and we can get back to a more normal give and take.

This all or nothing red/blue dichotomy is not good for anything but the danger-hairs who make a living out of it.

Spliting the country in two is based on rual/urban is not the solution to America's issues.

Linako 2.0 · Oct 11, 2018

It's hard to believe it's already the mid terms. the campaigns aren't as high energy as back in '16. I don't think Trump even came over to form a rally, which is a damn shame.
Remember to register to vote and write in Joshua Moon.

The Great Chandler · Oct 11, 2018

millais said:
these Deep State assholes will probably perform well at the polls too, since everybody in this country blindly worships anybody with even the most tangential of service to the military apparatus.

Not quite. Not a lot of Americans trust the CIA. Operation Northwoods for example.

RP 520 · Oct 11, 2018

Tetraphobia said:
gonna be fun to go back to this thread in hindsight tbqh

No one has betted to eat a hat at least.

millais said:
these Deep State assholes will probably perform well at the polls too, since everybody in this country blindly worships anybody with even the most tangential of service to the military apparatus.

Back in 2016 a decorated army vet. ran as a Democrat against our Representative. The army vet. only got around 30% of the vote.

kobebyarlant · Oct 11, 2018

heathercho · Oct 11, 2018

'AN UNHINGED MOB': RNC Releases Brutal Ad Slamming Political Left

Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

ByRYAN SAAVEDRA
@REALSAAVEDRA
October 11, 2018

The Republican National Committee released a new ad on Thursday highlighting the political Left as "an unhinged mob" as Democratic leaders have called for incivility and used violent rhetoric in recent days.

The new campaign ad comes as the 2018 midterm elections are less than a month away and as leftist groups have caused unease around the country with their increasingly mob-like behavior.

Recent examples of mob violence from the political Left includes:

A Democratic terrorist and Bernie Sanders supporter who tried to mass murder GOP lawmakers at a baseball practice in 2017.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) being attacked at his home by his Democratic neighbor.

Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters (CA) urging people to harass Trump administration officials.

Far-left groups forcing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen from restaurants while they were eating with their families.

Democratic Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) calling for people to "get up in the face" of members of Congress.

Obama-era Attorney General Eric Holder saying: "When they go low, we kick them."

Two-time failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton saying that Democrats "cannot be civil" towards Republicans.

Far-left activists pounding on the doors of the Supreme Court during the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing.

"We know passions are high in this country but when you have leaders for the Democratic Party escalating that, it is going to lead to something dangerous," RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told The Daily Wire. "This is a time where leaders of the Democrat Party need to tamp down these passions."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/37036/unhinged-mob-rnc-releases-brutal-ad-slamming-ryan-saavedra

I don't even care who wins, just please keep making more of these videos with people chimping out.
To actually make it an official party video is

.

fam · Oct 11, 2018

King n Yellow said:
The issue I have with Nate is he won't release the details of his analytical model to the public (or privately to a neutral 3rd party) to show exactly how he comes up with his predictions.

He goes into quite a bit of detail here, actually.

I'm not sure why anyone sees their model giving Clinton a 70% chance of winning as a failure. It's a probability, not a prediction.

CephalopodEnthusiast · Oct 12, 2018

The fight between the candidates of the Tennessee Senate is rather disappointing compared to the war waged by Trump and Hillary. We'll never have another debate as amusing as the '16 debates.

xX_rAcE_wAr_420_Xx · Oct 12, 2018

heathercho said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hlMIyae9-ZU
I don't even care who wins, just please keep making more of these videos with people chimping out.
To actually make it an official party video is .

Is this the state of modern politics now? One party just screams "REEE CHECK YOUR FUCKING PRIVILEGE" and the other points at them and says "not that"?

Ponderous Pillock · Oct 12, 2018

xX_rAcE_wAr_420_Xx said:
Is this the state of modern politics now? One party just screams "REEE CHECK YOUR FUCKING PRIVILEGE" and the other points at them and says "not that"?

To be fair, it's a powerful easy message. "Yeah, let's not."

RodgerDodger · Oct 12, 2018

Oglooger said:
It's hard to believe it's already the mid terms. the campaigns aren't as high energy as back in '16. I don't think Trump even came over to form a rally, which is a damn shame.
Remember to register to vote and write in Joshua Moon.

That’s normal. The Campaigns are actually extremely high energy for a Mid Term. Presidential Years are exciting. Mid terms are more often than not ignored.

kobebyarlant said:

In other words the Dems waved the White Flag of Surrender and went home. Likely to get very very drunk. That they abandoned yet another opportunity for grandstanding on the National Stage to instead rush home for a last minute appeal directly to their actual voters should tell you just how desperate they are. That tells you what their internal polling is telling them. That they surrendered 15 Appelate Court Judicial appointments in the process really highlights the magnitude of just how badly Cocaine Mitch has them beaten down. I almost wonder if Schumer’s leadership might be in trouble?

Ponderous Pillock · Oct 12, 2018

RodgerDodger said:
In other words the Dems waved the White Flag of Surrender and went home. Likely to get very very drunk. That they abandoned yet another opportunity for grandstanding on the National Stage to instead rush home for a last minute appeal directly to their actual voters should tell you just how desperate they are. That tells you what their internal polling is telling them. That they surrendered 15 Appelate Court Judicial appointments in the process really highlights the magnitude of just how badly Cocaine Mitch has them beaten down. I almost wonder if Schumer’s leadership might be in trouble?

What's more entertaining is they don't give a shit about court judges who are more likely to impact the day to day lives of your average US citizen with potentially harsher judgements than Justice Kavanaugh who might make a half dozen rulings in his entire career on the USSC.

RP 520 · Oct 12, 2018

Oglooger said:
It's hard to believe it's already the mid terms. the campaigns aren't as high energy as back in '16. I don't think Trump even came over to form a rally, which is a damn shame.
Remember to register to vote and write in Joshua Moon.

Mid-terms are never high energy. Almost no one ever cares about them. This mid-term is different in that it seems to be getting more coverage, but still enthusiasm is low and not that many people care.

PantsFreeZone · Oct 12, 2018

As of today, the NPC meme's efficacy is at an all time high. The disgust over how the Democrats handled the Kavanaugh confirmation is still influencing the moderate/independent voting bloc. The messaging, the economy, the constant winning and the continued idiocy of Hollywood have all helped the Republicans. Trump's approval is 51%, which is incredibly high given that 97% of all media coverage is negative.

Beto or Beta or Francis, whatever, in Texas has raised a record amount of money and yet now trails by an average of 8 points in every poll. The DNC just moved $38 million into an unwinnable state at the expense of defending Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill. Meanwhile, Nevada's Dean Heller, once thought a complete blue wipeout, is up 2 points as the most vulnerable GOP Senator.

I think we are in for a shocking midterms result. The amount of silent majority voters is going to flush the loud, angry Socialist Progressive mob of fringe Twitter faggotry right down the drain and the Republicans will probably pick up 6-7 seats in the Senate and maybe a handful in the House.

And the media coverage is going to be even more bananas, more obscene and so much fun to watch.

Keystone · Oct 12, 2018

RodgerDodger said:
In other words the Dems waved the White Flag of Surrender and went home. Likely to get very very drunk. That they abandoned yet another opportunity for grandstanding on the National Stage to instead rush home for a last minute appeal directly to their actual voters should tell you just how desperate they are. That tells you what their internal polling is telling them. That they surrendered 15 Appelate Court Judicial appointments in the process really highlights the magnitude of just how badly Cocaine Mitch has them beaten down. I almost wonder if Schumer’s leadership might be in trouble?

Much like how Hillary will never let go of getting utterly BTFO in 2016, Chuck and Nancy will never willingly let go of their leadership positions no matter how badly their performance impacts their party. They'll kill someone before they give up their power.

Absolutego · Oct 12, 2018

Keystone said:
Much like how Hillary will never let go of getting utterly BTFO in 2016, Chuck and Nancy will never willingly let go of their leadership positions no matter how badly their performance impacts their party. They'll kill someone before they give up their power.

I'm imagining a monkey's paw situation where even if people got their wish and Pelosi was ousted from the House minority leadership, she'd be replaced by someone like Maxine Waters.

Autistsforuganda · Oct 12, 2018

After all the stuff that has happend in the last 2 years and especially what happend in the Kavanaugh trials, i will call the american people exceptional for all eternity, if the Dems get majority in the house and the senate.

uncleShitHeel · Oct 12, 2018

DNA_JACKED said:
Because, since the 2016 election, the democratic party has dropped the mask of illusion and fully embraced identity politics. They have been screeching about trump nonstop, about how every little thing is horrible, and trying to shove the narrative that low unemployment, rising wages, and lower taxes are somehow BAD for people. And while they are doing this, they have been telling anybody who thinks that this hyper anti-trump hysteria has gone too far to fuck themselves. The DNC has even gone so far as to support very vocal SJW groups that blame society's woes on a single racial group.

While their vocal minority has screeched loudly the last few years, moderates have gone strangely silent. Cortez winning the new york primary cast light on the impeding situation. Despite being in an area with nearly 300K registered democrats, and despite the area casting 60K+ votes in 2014, she won with a whopping...16K votes. That is a major red flag that indicated a large number of democrats are not showing up to the polls.

The border control REEEEing hurt democrats pretty badly. When they continued to blame the situation on trump, despite the record numbers of children held there under obama (without a peep from the democrats) many began to turn on the democrats for being blatant liars, willing to push an agenda at the cost of the morals they try to enforce upon others. Then even the liberal polls showed that a majority of democrats supported either tighter border laws or proper enforcement of the existing laws, yet the democrats continued to push against border control insisting only EVIL WHITE NAZI RUSSIAN SEXIST DEPLORABLES could support the literal killing of innocent border-hopping children. This then led to the insanity of "ABOLISH ICE" which went over like a lead brick.

The kavanaugh catastrophe has also backfired on the democrats. SO, SO many vocal democrats have been screaming about how kavanaugh is guilty of ~~groping~~ rape of ~~1,2,~~ 6 women with no evidence and shaky testimony. I've heard several try to twist "provide evidence beyond reasonable doubt" to say that if her story is believable, brett is guilty and should be removed, which is just asinine. When asked why Ford did not go to the police, their response was, I kid you not, "Well, she wasnt trying to arrest him, she was trying to expose his garbage character". Blatant support of outright libel and slander, because trump nominated a moderate to the courts.

And you bet that many moderates, including myself, have been keeping track of how often the democrats have claimed the sky is falling, only to completely abandon whatever horrible affliction has hit the country in favor of another malady to be outraged over, or to pull "muh russia" out of their ass again.

Moderates are pissed. Social progressive/fiscal conservatives are pissed. business democrats are pissed (get woke, go broke). centrists are in awe at the democrat's insane behavior, and all have taken note of how they are making money and the economy has improved despite the hysteria. The kavanaugh failure has united republicans while dividing democrats. With the sham russia investigation showing nothing, prominent democrat supporters getting caught up in #metoo, social media companies in cahoots to suppress free speech, and the liberal media contradicting itself at every turn (and being called out for it with increasing frequency and severity), the punches just keep. on. coming.

I have no doubt the senate will go further red this year. While the house is a wild card, it wouldnt surprise me to see republicans gain ground there. And at the local level, the hysterical grandstanding has left democrats no real platform to run on, no achievements, nothing to draw in voters other then "fuck trump, raise taxes" which will only attract the loons that will vote (D) regardless.

Watching this as an outsider, this is pretty much it in a nutshell. The insanity of the Democrats have made the republicans look normal.

RodgerDodger · Oct 12, 2018

Autistsforuganda said:
After all the stuff that has happend in the last 2 years and especially what happend in the Kavanaugh trials, i will call the american people exceptional for all eternity, if the Dems get majority in the house and the senate.

If you want to be really terrified, if the Dem’s take the House, Maxine Waters will be the head of the House Financial Services Committee. You know the one that oversees banking... the Rep investigated by the House Ethics Committee, the most in US History, and primarily for bank fraud.

UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

RodgerDodger

Sweet and Savoury

Null-like homunculus

Linako 2.0

One of few based™ oldfags

The Great Chandler

"Pickleless girls don't marry virgin boys"

RP 520

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kobebyarlant

Uhhh sir?

heathercho

Executive Horsewife

fam

thirsty

CephalopodEnthusiast

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xX_rAcE_wAr_420_Xx

LGBT, the Four Pests of the Communist Party

Ponderous Pillock

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RodgerDodger

Ponderous Pillock

Welcome to Triple T, Tards, Troons and Trolls!

RP 520

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PantsFreeZone

Smartest monkey on the spinning space rock

Keystone

Absolutego

There's no excuse for a fool with a gun

Autistsforuganda

uncleShitHeel

Along for the ride in clown world

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