UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

http://archive.is/1rEYe

Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...

• What are the midterms?
• What do the polls predict?
• Why do these elections matter?
• How could recent developments affect things?
• Could Trump be impeached?
• Will the youth vote make a difference?
• What does it mean for Australia?

Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.

How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”

Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

 

[CWCchange]

I think the republicans will gain 1 seat in senate overall, and will likely lose the house by a very small amount.

The issue is how many Republican seats are up for grabs in red and purple enclaves of overwhelmingly blue states like California and New York. If Democrats are able to win about three-fourths of these seats, they still won't flip the balance of power. Still, it's VERY important Republicans defend and not take incumbent's advantage for granted, and remind people how much crazier Democrats have become, because then 2020 will fucking be right around the corner.

 

[melty]

https://politics.theonion.com/new-polls-increase-fears-that-midterm-elections-will-be-1829636720

 

[RP 520]

@heathercho I prefer a purple whirlpool metaphor. Blue and red opposing currents mix together and rotate into a whirlpool

Edit: uguu~ ^_^

I prefer the purple whirlpool answer because it implies the entire U.S. getting flushed down the toilet of insanity.

 

[TowinKarz]

The latest polling, which tends to be heavily biased towards Dems, shows the lead they had back in August/early September has now shrunken to the point where it's nearing being equal to the margin of error, that's a momentous and unprecedented collapse and doesn't bode well. Even the MSM is admitting it's closer than they'd like....

As mentioned, they can't take the senate even if every seat flips. But the house will be the real interesting outcome because, barring a miracle, they've seemingly managed to turn what historically and statistically looked like modest gains into a gain of a seat or two, to possibly even - no gain at all, it's astounding that they look to have fucked up this bad.

They can thank the whole Kavanaugh hearing for that, it wasn't just the partisanship, it was the naked aggressive partisanship where they actually threw out even pretending to care about presumption of innocence and basically shouting BEING ACCUSED IS ENOUGH, NOW REJECT HIM OR ELSE YOU ARE ALL SEXISTS!!!! And people's jaws fucking DROPPED. Not that they'd try a manufactured 11th hour scandal, but that they'd be so blatantly bad at putting it together they'd have no proof beyond "Accuser woman, accused man, we rest our case" and STILL went with it....

They are so out of touch they aren't even a parody anymore, now they are deranged, literally deranged, as in they have forgotten the very reason they couldn't obstruct the nomination is because THEY CHANGED THE RULES themselves, less than TWO YEARS ago.... and now are blaming OTHERS for that very fact..... it's astounding, I don't know if I should cry or wind my watch.

They literally are walking away from a burning building with a can of gasoline and aren't even saying "It wasn't us", they're actually saying "Look what they made us do! We didn't want to, but you MADE us do this!"

If that level of naked pettiness and raw hatred of their own country's law and voter is enough to turn a "gimmie" gain in the house into a loss, it'll be the most amazing political meltdown in this country's history.... no hyperbole, it would be unprecedented.....

 

[xX_rAcE_wAr_420_Xx]

I don't care too much about midterms (since I know exactly how my state will go) but there's a certain fascination at watching how all this will go down. I will freely admit I'm hoping for a bloodbath, since that's much more interesting, but even accounting for that I'm beginning to suspect this might be very messy for the Democrats.

The media was claiming a 98% win for Hillary in 2k16 and we saw how that turned out. Now the media is saying that THE BLUE WAVE IS TOTALLY COMING LET'S GO GUYS by like a margin of... a few points. If they're willing to admit that much of a margin, how bad are things actually for the Democrats?

Frankly I've given up hope that my friends will ever stop being eternally assmad about politics, and although most of the Republican policies don't appeal to me, at this point I'm just ready for the Democratic party to burn to the ground and get rebuilt into something less retarded. Until then, IhaveKiwiFarms.

 

[An Ghost]

Don’t care about seats cause fuck if I recognize any names on any ballot ever.

Excited to vote because one of the questions for my state involves overturning tranny protection laws.

 

[Sissy Galvez]

I want to vote in a republican governor just to fuck with the liberals and Antifa in my state. The race is pretty close.

 

[Iceland Heavy]

I'm still mostly expecting some gains for the Dems because of historical midterm trends, but I'm hoping the silent majority has had enough of reeee Drumpf screeching.

Spoiler: Probably :powerlevel:

I got redistricted from a swing district into a solid blue one a couple election cycles ago, and both my Senators are not only in safe seats but actively led the retarded charge against Kavanaugh. I'm still going to turn out to vote because seriously, fuck them both for doing this (not that they weren't already exceptional Dems before).

 

[CephalopodEnthusiast]

While the Dems have a strong lead as of this month, I believe the Republicans could easily overtake them.

Is anyone else sick of hearing "Trump might be impeached" every month? At this point I want him to win because it would generate so much liberal salt, and change the headlines.

 

[Audit]

The democrats will not win as much as they hope and the third parties will be blamed again, or maybe bernie bros, or perhaps Russia. Hmm, if we assume that Russia, the green party, and bernie sanders are all left wing then we can just blame Karl Marx on the democrat's poor election results.

There we go. Fuck Karl Marx, that bastard kept Hillary from having her turn in the white house.

 

[Intelligent Calcium]

No Yellow Monsoon for Jeb in the poll? Shameful.

 

[trannyfucker]

The media was claiming a 98% win for Hillary in 2k16 and we saw how that turned out. Now the media is saying that THE BLUE WAVE IS TOTALLY COMING LET'S GO GUYS by like a margin of... a few points. If they're willing to admit that much of a margin, how bad are things actually for the Democrats?

I think 538 had the Dems on like 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ The 98% folks should never work again.

Right now 538 have the Republicans on 81% for the Senate, and the Dems on 78% for the House.

 

[Kirito]

I think 538 had the Dems on like 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ The 98% folks should never work again.

Right now 538 have the Republicans on 81% for the Senate, and the Dems on 78% for the House.

We saw how Nate Plastics 72% chance of winning worked for the election. Why does anyone take him seriously?

 

[ICametoLurk]

An extraordinary number of former intelligence and military operatives from the CIA, Pentagon, National Security Council and State Department are seeking nomination as Democratic candidates for Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. The potential influx of military-intelligence personnel into the legislature has no precedent in US political history.

If the Democrats capture a majority in the House of Representatives on November 6, as widely predicted, candidates drawn from the military-intelligence apparatus will comprise as many as half of the new Democratic members of Congress.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/03/07/dems-m07.html

 

[Iceland Heavy]

We saw how Nate Plastics 72% chance of winning worked for the election. Why does anyone take him seriously?

He was the best out of the lot (which isn't saying much but still), and rode a wave of 'I told you so' in 2012 when conservatives then were claiming inaccurate polls.

 

[Kirito]

He was the best out of the lot (which isn't saying much but still), and rode a wave of 'I told you so' in 2012 when conservatives then were claiming inaccurate polls.

The consistent 70-30 split he puts on makes it very obvious it's intended to be used as a deflection if it's wrong. It's like his model is designed so that it absolutely can't be any more certain.

 

[trannyfucker]

The consistent 70-30 split he puts on makes it very obvious it's intended to be used as a deflection if it's wrong. It's like his model is designed so that it absolutely can't be any more certain.

Do you even math, bro? It's not a consistent 70-30, it's a model. You feed it numbers and it spits out an answer.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

Something would be wrong if you predicted a GOP win if all the data input (polls) show the Dems winning. So obviously there's no way for him to have predicted Trump winning given that the polls didn't show that. But at the same time it's still better than saying 'there's no way whatsoever'.

70/30 just tells you 'probably, but can't be sure'.

 

[Kirito]

Do you even math, bro? It's not a consistent 70-30, it's a model. You feed it numbers and it spits out an answer.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

Something would be wrong if you predicted a GOP win if all the data input (polls) show the Dems winning. So obviously there's no way for him to have predicted Trump winning given that the polls didn't show that. But at the same time it's still better than saying 'there's no way whatsoever'.

70/30 just tells you 'probably, but can't be sure'.

A model can be designed to spit out more favorable results. I dont disagree with it's results right now, for the most part, I'm just making an observation.

 

[RP 520]

We saw how Nate Plastics 72% chance of winning worked for the election. Why does anyone take him seriously?

The issue I have with Nate is he won't release the details of his analytical model to the public (or privately to a neutral 3rd party) to show exactly how he comes up with his predictions. He's also very vocal about his support for left-wing Democrats, which is generally a bad idea for a pollster, if you want to appear impartial and credible. There's a lot of pollsters who refuse to vote in elections or try to balance their time on various TV network appearances to try to keep that standard.

 

[Kirito]

The issue I have with Nate is he won't release the details of his analytical model to the public (or privately to a neutral 3rd party) to show exactly how he comes up with his predictions. He's also very vocal about his support for left-wing Democrats, which is generally a bad idea for a pollster, if you want to appear impartial and credible. There's a lot of pollsters who refuse to vote in elections or try to balance their time on various TV network appearances to try to keep that standard.

Nate has a lot of problems. There's a lot of reasons not to take him seriously.