UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

http://archive.is/1rEYe

Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...

• What are the midterms?
• What do the polls predict?
• Why do these elections matter?
• How could recent developments affect things?
• Could Trump be impeached?
• Will the youth vote make a difference?
• What does it mean for Australia?

Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.

How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”

Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

 

[Bongsnake McGee]

Shut down the government forever and lift all restrictions on fire arm sales. We will uphold the NAP or die trying.

This, except unironically.

 

[Sissy Galvez]

Let’s just start the purge already and get rid of undesirables on both sides.

 

[Medicated]

Got my ID, so now I'm registered to vote in my new home state. Right now I'm in full stealth mode IRL, dodging political topics as best I can. Unfortunately, sometimes I fail my Dex save. This morning, a cab driver lectured me about how the government is clearly the best choice to run our health care because they care, you guys.

Well technically the government cares about health care more since they are trying to directly appeal to the voters. So at least there is some "connection" to people. With Medical Corporations, they don't answer to the populace in any way shape or form. A mean look at gender clinics. You think you'd want to do more research on this sort of stuff before advocating to the public and children.

Hell no, this is a real money spinner, especially for parents will to take their kids in. And they'll have to be "treated" forever, drugs, cosmetic procedures, medical procedures, psychs, counselors etc etc.

 

[Your Weird Fetish]

Well multiple layers of government bureaucracy, insurance, hospital administration, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies...responsibility is pretty distributed. Same with incentives and disincentives to perform for the customer. It wouldn't change all that much I don't think.

 

[AZ 594]

Texan Kiwi here, voted early. Outside the polling place you had the usual people holding up signs and shit, waving at cars, etc. Funnily enough it was just for local politicians, not for anyone state-wide. Inside, though, it was pretty low energy. There weren't any of those ever elusive high energy Millennial socialists that will BTFO the Republicans into the stone age like the Dems keep boasting about. Pretty much all boomers and late Gen X'ers that didn't have that "progressive" aura about them. Maybe it was just the polling place I was at, but I was pretty much the only one there that looked under 30.

Yeah, it's too early to tell, but if this is a sign of things to come on election day, Beto O'Rorke is gonna have to change his name to Beta O'Rekt.

Older people tend to be the early voters. Younger voters seem to wait until the official date or skip entirely after sleeping in.

 

[misterduckford]

Older people tend to be the early voters. Younger voters seem to wait until the official date or skip entirely after sleeping in.

Which probably works against the Left.

Youthful idealism tends to lend itself to the hopey-changey everything free open borders! message they push. Later on, shows up.

 

[Sissy Galvez]

It’s just so damn funny how much Trump rage there is on twitter amongst millennials yet they never show up to vote.

Maybe twitter is really just a loud echo chamber made up of an insignificant population of the US?

 

[CWCchange]

Which probably works against the Left.

Youthful idealism tends to lend itself to the hopey-changey everything free open borders! message they push. Later on, shows up.

Also, pee o'cees, who won't wait in line unless its for gibs nao.

 

[Keystone]

It’s just so damn funny how much Trump rage there is on twitter amongst millennials yet they never show up to vote.

Maybe twitter is really just a loud echo chamber made up of an insignificant population of the US?

Or, as the screeching around Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro shows, an insignificant population outside the country that can't even vote in these elections anyway; or both.

 

[BR55]

Personally I actually do think that young liberals are more "energized" then in previous elections.
The only problem, for the Democrats anyway, is that all those voters are concentrated in places like LA, the Bay Area, and NYC. Which as 2016 showed us isn't very good for winning elections.
So yeah I seriously doubt that the Dems take the House. Especially when you look at individual races instead of the almighty "Generic Ballot" that all the pundits keep crowing about.
As for the Senate the GOP is making gains that is certain at this point. Perhaps even very large gains.
The best case scenario for the GOP would be taking the "Quint", that being North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and West Virginia, and then possibly picking up seats elsewhere. Most likely Florida or Ohio.
Besides those races there are still a few other opportunity's.
Namely Minnesota's Special Election which is looking very close and my own home of Wisconsin were its starting to look likely that Tammy Baldwin loses.
Then you have the real longshots those being New Jersey and Virginia. Word is that the Dems are getting very nervous about New Jersey and Virginia could flip if GOP turnout is high and they manage to hold down the Dem margins in NOVA but like I said that is a real longshot.
Finally you have the Governor and State Legislature races which if the Dems were smart they would be focusing on instead of the House so they could have more influence over Redistricting in 2020.
The Dems will almost certainly take Illinois. New Mexico, Maine, and Michigan all have a good chance of flipping as well.
The GOP will almost certainly take back back Alaska. Minnesota, Colorado, and surprisingly enough Oregon are also good pickup chances.
Sorry for the minor text wall but TLDR the GOP is mostly looking good.

 

[Medicated]

Personally I actually do think that young liberals are more "energized" then in previous elections.
The only problem, for the Democrats anyway, is that all those voters are concentrated in places like LA, the Bay Area, and NYC. Which as 2016 showed us isn't very good for winning elections.

So basically the Twitter bloc?

 

[Irrenhaus Inmate]

Missouri is still way too much of a toss-up for me to make a prediction. I doubt rural voters will have as big of an impact as they have in recent election cycles. Hawley's been only holding rallies in areas he's already going to win, and while McCaskill's been campaigning where she needs to, she hasn't really had the strongest rebuttals to his attack ads. At least from what I've seen.

But this is the state known for meth and religious zealots, so maybe everything goes wonky at the last minute.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Well multiple layers of government bureaucracy, insurance, hospital administration, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies...responsibility is pretty distributed. Same with incentives and disincentives to perform for the customer. It wouldn't change all that much I don't think.

From what I could tell of obamacare its big problem was locking down the companies to a more state by state business. If it could have used the millions of people on plans on the coasts to help make flyover country insurance cheap. Instead it handed the companies an excuse to jack up payments and then the Dems pretended it didn't happen. Best proper reform to offer is let the companies offer it properly nationally.

Mind with the bomber everyone ignored the fact that drug prices are coming down soon. Another promise kept.

 

[RP 520]

It’s just so damn funny how much Trump rage there is on twitter amongst millennials yet they never show up to vote.

Maybe twitter is really just a loud echo chamber made up of an insignificant population of the US?

The problem with the youth vote in 2016, and possibly this election, is that they hype themselves up thinking there's no way they will lose (Hillary's 99% chance and Blue Wave) and then don't go vote because they expect such a large turn out that they don't have to and that someone else surely will vote in their place.

Or, as the screeching around Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro shows, an insignificant population outside the country that can't even vote in these elections anyway; or both.

There's this too. I've seen accounts from places like Australia and Britain freaking out over Trump and the mid-term elections.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Yeah everyone talking about the end of the democratic party needs to remember that not that long ago many of us (myself included) was wondering about the end of the republican party. Instead, an adaptation was made. That said I don't think the hard left will ever be exercised. Just the SJW part of it. Communism is a really resilient meme.

The Dems or some semblance of them will be back. But likely not in full force, barring a massive economic cratering, before 2024. It’s how cycles work. After 2008 the GOP retrenched and focused on rebuilding the base and taking the States. It took them 3-4 election cycles to turn around. The Dems need to do that. But so far they show no signs of it. They have no National Party Leadership worth a damn. The DNC is essentially unemployable has beens sticking their heads in the sand and hoping not to be arrested. Contrast Perez with the job Reince Preibus did rebuilding the GOP infrastructure during the Obama years. I think Chuckles Schumer understands this, but is paralyzed by the squabbling Dem electorate.

The Dems most likely will be back, but it is less certain than it was for the GOP. A fun fact that few on the left realize. The GOP is more argumentive internally, but also more flexible. The coalitions in it tend to be loosely held via key common interests. Past those they can bend and sway and even throw punches at each other. But the Dem coalitions are more rigid and brittle. Far more absolutist and unforgiving. It’s possible to see a split between the more centrist Jacksonian Dems and the far left Democratic Socialists. The fact that a segment of them is using the Democratic Socialist label so openly these days is a warning sign of fracture. At least until or unless said DemZi’s get wiped out electorally.

 

[ForgedBlades]

The best is when millennials reee about how they could increase voter turnout by making election day a federal holiday, implying they wouldn't spend the night before getting shitfaced and waking up too hungover to get to the polling place.

 

[Tranhuviya]

The problem with Obamacare is that it slaved one thing that HAS to work, healthcare, to notoriously inefficient bureaucracy. It was all but fated to be a shitshow. What happened with the website comes to mind.

Stuff like the individual mandate penalizing those who didn't buy in didn't help matters, either.

 

[TowinKarz]

O-care was VA-level "care" for all, with a penalty if you exercised your "option" to say "no thanks".

 

[misterduckford]

View attachment 578913

shudder
Another cringeworthy example of how the Left cannot meme.

O-care was VA-level "care" for all, with a penalty if you exercised your "option" to say "no thanks".

As a vetfag, I can attest to the depressing accuracy of this statement.

 

[Takayuki Yagami]

The troons are self disenfranchising. Imagine being this mentally fragile.

View attachment 576119

This is something I don’t really understand despite living in the US for my entire life. Why don’t we have compulsory registration, or just have someone get all the high school seniors in a room near the end of the school year and have them fill out the required forms? They did it at my school. Is it a public vs private thing? They whinge about registration when it’s usually simple as all hell.