I posted this in a couple Discord servers a few weeks ago, but also posted it in the 2022 Midterm thread in the Articles & News section. For the sake of having it be visible to lurkers who don't want to make a Kiwifarms account, I'll copy and paste it here as well.
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BOLD 2022 PREDICTIONS
-Raw turnout in terms of voters (not necessarily percentage of eligible voters, but probably also as a percentage of eligible voters) will be higher than 2018...and either close to 2016 or even a bit higher than in 2016. I base this off the fact that both VA & NJ guber races in 2021 had higher raw turnout than those races in 2017.
-In the same way that Dave Brat primaried Eric Cantor in 2014 and Lauren Boebert primaried Scott Tipton in 2020 , there will be multiple House (perhaps some Senate) Republicans who will be replaced in the primaries by those more MAGA / anti-establishment than they are
-College Whites, College Nonwhites, Noncollege Whites, and Noncollege Nonwhites will all swing R from 2020 results. Even College White Women will swing (but not trend) R.
-The magnitude of the R swings, in order from highest to lowest, will be:
Noncollege Hispanic Males(high double digit R swing closer to 20 points than 10) > Noncollege Asian Males (high double digit R swing closer to 15 than 10) >> Noncollege White Males(double digit R swing around 10) > Noncollege Hispanic Females(double digit R swing around 10) > Noncollege White Females(double digit R swing around 10) > Noncollege Asian Females(double digit R swing around 10, e.g. 9-13 points) > College White Males(high single digit R swing close to 10, e.g. 9-11points) = Noncollege Black Males(5-7 points R) > Noncollege Black Females(4-6 points R) >> College White Females (3-6 points R) > College Asian Females (3-6 points R) > College Black Females (2-5 points R)
-note that I am estimating nationally, the swings could differ for each demographic based on the state (e.g. college whites in Colorado not having an R swing as strong as college whites in Pennsylvania) note that I am considering swing to be in terms of margin. So a "20 point noncollege hispanic male swing" would be like 60%Dem 40% Repub to 50%Dem 50%Repub note that I count undergrad college students in the 'College' category despite the fact that they haven't earned their degree yet
-Rubio and DeSantis win by close to double digits, possibly a little over 10. Miami-Dade goes Red for both
-Ron Johnson wins Wisconsin by more than the 4.9% margin he had in 2010, Evers loses in Wisconsin by close to double digits
-Lee Zeldin gets above 43% in New York, maybe even above 45%, the strongest GOP performance in the state since Pataki in 2002
-Schumer underperforms his 70.6%-27.2% 2016 performance, making it closer to the 2016/2020 Presidential performances, possibly a bit lower
-Tim Walz loses in Minnesota by a close margin, Janet Mills loses in Maine similarly
-Gretchen Whitmer loses in Michigan by high single digits
-GOP nominees take the Pennsylvania Senate and Gubernatorial races by high single digits
-Mark Kelly loses to Blake Masters by high single digits, if not low double digits. Katie Hobbs loses to Kari Lake similarly
-Catherine Cortez-Masto loses to Adam Laxalt by mid-high single digits, Steve Sisolak loses similarly
-Raphael Warnock loses to Hershel Walker by mid single digits, Stacey Abrams loses to David Perdue by about the same amount
-Maggie Hassan loses by a single digit amount, but I am not sure if it will be a low/mid/high single digit amount. I think the CO-SEN Republican candidate loses by a single digit amount, but a bit better than Gardner's 2020 performance.
-Greg Abbot performs similarly to his 2018 performance, possibly beating Beto by more than he did Valdez
-Ted Budd retains the North Carolina Senate seat for the Republicans, winning by close to double digits
-Jim Renacci primaries Mike DeWine and the Gubernatorial and Senate races are both won by double digits
-GOP breaks the 250 seat mark in the House (they got to 247 in 2014), districts like Frank Mrvan's seat in Indiana are close, some unexpected GOP wins like OK-05 was mostly unexpected for Democrats in 2018
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My personal 2022 Endorsements
Alabama: Mo Brooks for Senate because he's been strong against the Steal(Britt is a McConnell plant who is merely saying what she knows we want to hear), Lynda Blanchard for Governor (Ivey is not the worst GOP governor but we could do better)
Alaska: Kelly Tshibaka for Senate,
Arizona: Blake Masters for Senate, Kari Lake for Governor
Arkansas: Jan Morgan against the snake Boozman for Senate, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders for Governor
California: lol
Colorado: also lol, being 100% mail-in makes me think the GOP candidate can make it within single digits against Bennett but not enough. Polis probably wins by double digits. Maybe the GOP can still break 45%, but this is low priority
Connecticut: we should make a shot at the gubernatorial race and I'd vote for a Sununu type over Lamont, if the GOP nominee is like Phil Scott or Baker I'd just vote third party
Florida:
https://www.luismiguelforsenate.com/ rather than Rubio ; DeSantis wins easily, possibly by double digits
Georgia: Herschel Walker for Senate, David Perdue for Governor
Hawaii: lol
Idaho:
http://natalieisawesome.com/index.php/issue-highlights/ I
llinois: lol
Indiana:
https://dannyforhoosiers.com/issues because while Todd Young is no Mitt Romney, he's still no John Neely Kennedy
Iowa: Jim Carlin, hero for election integrity, against Grassley; if anyone primaries Kim Reynolds from the right, vote for them but she's definitely preferable to the Democrat in the general
Kansas: whichever person decided to throw their hat into the ring against Moran; for Governor, any Republican as long as they aren't as bad as DeWine
Kentucky: whichever Republican is primarying Rand because of his vote to certify the fraudulent 2020 election, though he is nowhere near as bad as some other Republican Senators and will easily win. Maybe he should also be applauded for refusing to take the clotshot
Louisiana: John Neely Kennedy, one of the few to vote against certifying the 2020 election - unless he dies from taking the clotshot
Maryland: lol
Missouri: Eric Greitens for Senate
Nevada: Adam Laxalt for Senate, Joe Lombardo for Governor
New Hampshire: Don Bolduc in the primary but someone like Morse is acceptable in the general; Sununu is an afterthought for Governor
New York: Lee Zeldin for Governor, I'll be voting to bring the state the best GOP performance since 2002
North Carolina: Ted Budd for Senate
North Dakota: anyone who primaries Hoeven for certifying the fraudulent 2020 election;
Ohio: Renacci against DeWine for Governor. For Senate, while Vance is acceptable in the general I'm mildly concerned he could pull a Romney. Mandel is saying a lot of great things that every other Republican politician ought to be saying but I'm not too sure about his past either. Therefore I'd go with Mike Gibbons, who worked pretty hard in his primary against Renacci in 2018
Oklahoma: Jackson Lahmeyer against the snake Lankford; Mark Sherwood against Kevin Stitt but Stitt is acceptable in the general
Oregon: lol
Pennsylvania: For Senate, as of January 15 (as I'm writing this) I'm honestly not sure, I'll wait for more candidates to join in. Anyone who is most similar to Parnell for Senate. Barletta for Governor
South Carolina: Tim Swain against the snake Tim Scott; for Governor,
https://www.fitsnews.com/2021/12/01/trucker-bob-running-for-governor-of-south-carolina
South Dakota: anyone who primaries Thune from the right, would not vote for Thune in the general; anyone further than Noem for governor but Noem is acceptable enough in the general
Utah: lol
Vermont: lol
Washington: lol
Wisconsin: I'd vote for someone who primaries Johnson for certifying the fraudulent 2020 election, but Johnson is acceptable in the general; Kleefisch probably cinches the gubernatorial nomination but if anyone is to her right, I'd vote for them - but Kleefisch is acceptable in the general
