US 2022 Mid-Term Election

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Moderates aren't a monolith either, though. The way I see it, there's a few key layers to this issue:

1. The individual running for office in a specific district
2. The specific preference distribution of voters in a specific district
3. Political ad spending in the leadup to the election

Given the political climate, I think it is physically impossible for any party to gain a supermajority in Congress. That's the definition I go off of when I think "red/blue wave".
Oh, that's certainly not happen this cycle at least. I'd guess a small majority in congress and a razor thin one in the senate.
Democrats will outspend the Republicans this cycle. The abortion question is going to impede Republicans, since the conversation around the overturning of Roe v Wade has turned into a shitfest of absolutes.
Nah, the polling shows little to no enthusiasm difference since the Supreme Court decision. My personal barometer of "rioting in the streets" turned up nothing even though several groups tried to get something going.
The ethical argument presented by pro-life politicians is going to be a bigger deal than the reality of the SCOTUS decision. I think many moderates, especially those who are more apolitical and pay less attention, are going to be averse to voting for Republicans because of their perception that they absolutely oppose abortion.
This has always been the case and the decision did nothing to change it. Very small change because it's at the forefront of their minds.
Congressional elections have far less individual visibility than Presidential ones. Attack ads are going to be very influential here, because in most cases there isn't a good platform for the candidate to fully express their position and it's a much better bang for the buck to just produce an attack ad.

Think about how much has changed in the popular consciousness in 6 years. I think we live in a completely new, post-COVID paradigm. Shit is more unpredictable than it was before.
Just no. Ads only work on the small segment of the semi-politically aware. They're going to be voting on their wallets. R's are mad and will show up. Only the fringe D's are really mad about the abortion decision and will not have much increase over it.
If you don't think I'm right, in the alternative, attack ads against the democrats are gonna be spicy since we had Afghanistan, Covid, Joe's gaffes, the J-6 shitshow, the ECONOMY, and so-on.
 
I thought this might be a valid cross-post.

It’s also worth reiterating that Virginia basically proves that there is a limit to fortification, and that that limit really isn’t even all that high.
Yet, evidentially, that 2% gap plus the increased scrutiny was just too much to overcome with the resources they had available.
Also look at the Arizona primary. Kari Lake will be a far tougher opponent and they very very clearly tried to do shit... but it all fell apart due to boomers watching.
The 2% gap was possibly after fortification too. I really like your point here though, it is very annoying that the majority people seem to think that election rigging is an all or nothing thing. The problems become exponentially larger the more you rig. You don't want to do anymore than you have to because you have a higher chance of getting caught or doing something stupid and making a close race be a double point win out of nowhere.
Personally, I think elections have always involved cheating to some unknown degree. 2020 was just so obvious because they had to pull out all the stops to make sure biden won. The fact it was so nakedly obvious something sketchy happened is precisely why they don't just throw in a billion ballots at 2am.

I think its pretty obvious that while the Democrats had a very reliable vote rigging system at one point, it was a very delicate system that required a lot of factors all aligning to work.
1) ZERO SCRUTINY: As long as nobody was looking for the fraud to happen, it slipped easily under the radar so by the time the winner was called, it was too late to spot the damage and call it out. Now with the modern amenities of the internet organization and video it is much harder to hide. Hell just sticking Boomers with smartphones near drop boxes cut the legs out from under their efforts in Arizona! Putting well-trained and motivated legal spotters in voting and counting centers makes it much more difficult.
2) LOW INTENSITY/FREQUENCY: The other way they kept things going was by nudging a few thousand votes here or there in select races, which makes it harder to spot. When the margins increase because of opponent turnout, they end up having to scramble and are unable to make their attempt anything except obvious. (See 2020) This puts them in a rock and a hard place - abandon the rig or be so blatant that they get caught, the entire risk calculation skews.
3) MANUFACTURED CONSENT: By manipulating polls and media, the Democrats could portray even a popular candidate as being a surefire winner/loser, and thus make their rigging seems more 'reasonable' through the centralized media. They could also smother complaints post election. Now there is a fractured media landscape and worldwide, live exposure on EVERYTHING, which makes their game much more difficult to play.
4) GROUND TROOPS: Rigging was always about low level ground troops, election secretaries, poll workers, vote counters, etc - and traditionally the more moneyed, activist/student classes of the liberals had more time and inclination to hold those roles. Without them, they can't rig jack shit - and it has to be a total blanket in the office because any one person could potentially blow the lid off the rigging. With Republicans and other 'rightist' people muscling in, it makes rigging much more risky and difficult to pull off.
5) UNSECURE SYSTEMS: Rigging depends on an insecure election system that is prone to exploitation by design or incompetence, period. The ramshackle defenses allow last minute ballot dumps, unlogged vote alterations, big pools of 'potential' voters', the list of attack profiles is lengthy and the riggers had to use every last one to put in the fix. Now many states are moving to reform and secure their systems - and even weak security upgrades have set the Democrats screaming in terror because their attack patterns are that delicate.

All of these recent developments throwing those factors into disarray are definitely a good start, but two things must be kept in mind. First, election security in law must be advocated and fought for until we have elections that are secure in the legal, policy, and physical sense - the laws, processes, and equipment must be robust, accurate, and transparently reliable. Perhaps more importantly is the administrative security, the actions taken to secure and keep secure our elector processes. Virginia and Arizona would have been rigged in a heartbeat if money, time, and manpower wasn't put into making it secure. Countless hours were spent training, planning, and preparing to safeguard the process from start to finish. Organizing volunteers for drop box watching, training poll observers, retaining lawyers in anticipation of legal challenges, informing the party members, the list goes on and on - stopping the steal can be done, but it takes constant effort and attention.

As the Founders said: "The cost of liberty is eternal vigilance."
 
The cities will remain blue, the countryside will remain red, and the suburbs will vote redder than they have before.
Suburbs are the swing district now since the average voter is a "respectable" type who doesn't like BLM chimpouts or their elementary school-age kids being taught they're a racist who needs to cut their dick off for the nice drag queen, but also doesn''t like politicians who say mean things on Twitter like Trump. This is why the media is still obsessed with Trump, why they tried airing the January 6th Show Trial live primetime, and why they're so obsessed with Liz Cheney since they believe they can win this demographic if they convince them the Republican Party has been taken over by Trump.
 
Suburbs are the swing district now since the average voter is a "respectable" type who doesn't like BLM chimpouts or their elementary school-age kids being taught they're a racist who needs to cut their dick off for the nice drag queen, but also doesn''t like politicians who say mean things on Twitter like Trump. This is why the media is still obsessed with Trump, why they tried airing the January 6th Show Trial live primetime, and why they're so obsessed with Liz Cheney since they believe they can win this demographic if they convince them the Republican Party has been taken over by Trump.
And on the other side Democrats fund MAGA candidates in the Republican primaries to have "easier" election contests later on. the thing is though that MAGA actually resonates with a lot of people. So in essence Democrats create their own enemy they then have to fight with everything the state has to offer.
 
The results of the Hawai'i Primary Election are in, and the results were not surprising at all.

-Dr. Josh Green facerolls his way into a Primary win in the Governor race in the Democrat Party.

-The BJ Penn campaign didn't gain as much interest as hyped, based on Duke Aiona's primary win in the same race for the Republican Party.

-Brian Schatz and Ed Case faceroll even harder to a Primary win in their respective Senator and House races, and Jill Tokuda wins the House race, all for the D Party.

It will take an obviously catastrophic throw from the Blues, in order for Hawai'i to turn into a lesser Blue shade of Blue in the General Election. And that won't be enough.
 
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The results of the Hawai'i Primary Election are in, and the results were not surprising at all.

-Dr. Josh Green facerolls his way into a Primary win in the Governor race in the Democrat Party.

-The BJ Penn campaign didn't gain as much interest as hyped, based on Duke Aiona's primary win in the same race for the Republican Party.

-Brian Schatz and Ed Case faceroll even harder to a Primary win in their respective Senator and House races, and Jill Tokuda wins the House race, all for the D Party.

It will take an obviously catastrophic throw from the Blues, in order for Hawai'i to turn into a lesser Blue shade of Blue in the General Election. And that won't be enough.
Hawaii, Commiefornia, New York, Washington and Illinois will NEVER stop being blue.
 
The results of the Hawai'i Primary Election are in, and the results were not surprising at all.

-Dr. Josh Green facerolls his way into a Primary win in the Governor race in the Democrat Party.

-The BJ Penn campaign didn't gain as much interest as hyped, based on Duke Aiona's primary win in the same race for the Republican Party.

-Brian Schatz and Ed Case faceroll even harder to a Primary win in their respective Senator and House races, and Jill Tokuda wins the House race, all for the D Party.

It will take an obviously catastrophic throw from the Blues, in order for Hawai'i to turn into a lesser Blue shade of Blue in the General Election. And that won't be enough.

And so nothing will change in Hawaii (again) *sigh*
 
Under the current forms of the parties, sure, but nothing ever says the same in politics. Fifty years ago, the south voting red would have been unthinkable. (well, maybe 60, can't be assed to look at the historic maps)
Pretty much. Hawaii was dominated by the Republican Party until the 1950s, basically the Kamaaina haoles, mercantile Chinese and Hawaiians had an alliance to lock out the Japanese, Filipinos and more recent mainlander transplants. Returning Japanese-American war vets fortified with college degrees teamed up with the unions to successfully dismantle that bloc by prying off the Hawaiians.
And so nothing will change in Hawaii (again) *sigh*
Yup. The election was rife with infighting and fuckery.
Right now, the Progs are making deep inroads into the Hawaii Democratic party apparatus, and this is making the older establishment Dems very uncomfortable. Josh Green is basically one of the hybrid Establishment/Progs that are at the forefront of the party, and he's essentially the one who was ordained to succeed the black hole of charisma and energy that is David Ige (who wasn't the chosen nominee of the party for the last go round, but isn't an outsider and hence acceptable).

This is making some of the Democratic Establishment here very uncomfortable, though no one will really ever come out and say what it is exactly. But first let's go into his defeated opponents in the primaries. There were only two serious foes. One, Vicky Cayetano, is the wife of former governor Ben Cayetano. She basically represented Dem aligned business interests and people who remember the last time this state wasn't an absolute hellhole under her husband (that he is partly the cause of the decline goes unrecognized, but voters here like names they know). Kai Kahele, the other opponent, is the son of an old, incredibly corrupt establishment Dem from the neighbor islands. He was running as an astroturfed progressive, but is an incompetent politician with no core values, and fucked up both his Representative position and his governor run so badly that I'm pretty sure his political career is over.

Now, why did it get so dirty? Well, because the local-born Asians who were once the core of the Democratic party leadership and backroom apparatus are being replaced by mainland haoles (and I may add, *Jewish* haoles with all that entails). This Dem primary is the fight breaking out in the open for the first time.

I'm pretty sure that there was some heavy fortification going on for Green. While I would expect him to win the primary honestly, I would expect more socially conservative rural districts to bend towards Cayetano more, and for the Big Island, where Gil Kahele is well loved and remembered (corrupt fucker made sure to spread the wealth to his constituents), to have a very strong tilt towards his son even with his own idiotic fuck-ups. That did not happen.

The Republican primary was pretty interesting. Everyone was expecting BJ Penn to mount some sort of Trumpian populist campaign energizing the non-voting majority in this state, basically the MMA-loving, pig-hunting, lifted pick-up truck driving local braddahs in "DEFEND HAWAII" branding. Of course, the runs into the hard reality that until recently BJ Penn was a drunken fuck-up picking bar fights with losers because of a mid-life crisis. Also, he's a total fake. He plays up the whole self-made badass local braddah persona, when he's a private-schooled son of a wealthy businessman who paid for him to fly to California and Brazil to train in MMA. Anyone who meets him tends to find him personally unlikeable due to his very pompous attitude.

Hawaii GOP being arch-RINOs more comfortable in losing with dignity than running a race with the intent to win, could not countenance someone who might possibly lose without dignity, or worse, actually win an election, and at the literal last minute, Duke Aiona submitted paperwork for the primary. Duke Aiona is a rarity, namely a Republican in Hawaii who has actually held office. He was lieutenant governor under Linda Lingle back in the 90s, and he was basically just both ethnic Hawaiian and Christian evangelical window dressing for the Lingle administration, which did not give a shit about either of those two blocs. I've met him a few times, and he's a very likable person with good moral character and genuine local folksiness, but is kind of intellectually dim and easily manipulated by others. Rounding out the official GOP candidates was Heidi Tsuneyoshi, who is both the State Chamber of Commerce and Hawaii Tourism Board collectively wearing a human skin suit. She actually only made fourth place in the race, with the third place winner, Gary Cordery, an incredibly based ex-military guy being the name that collectively, local media has decided to not name or platform. That he was consistently outpolling Tsuneyoshi and had actual human beings supporting him in the real world didn't matter. He was never discussed or allowed a voice.

This has been your local le 56% face Hawaiian Evola-poaster reporting to you on the Hawaiian goobernatorial primaries.
 
@OrangeJuliusEvola (reply bug)

To also add on for those outside of Hawaii: Labor unions has always being a big influence on local elections. You'll notice in the wiki article how the winners have a shit ton of endorsements from the unions. That's not a coincidence.

He was lieutenant governor under Linda Lingle back in the 90s
It was actually the 2000s, cause I remember Furlough Fridays and the Superferry was under Lingle. Outside of that (plus being Jewish and all), she actually had a genuine interest in investing in STEM educational programs (pre-divursity bullshit) which greatly helped influence my current career, so I have bit of a small kine fondness of her. But I was a wee young'un then so more older people will have different views on her legacy. Anyway...

I didn't really keep track of the lieutenant governor candidates. Is the GOP candidate this time less insane than the last one and can actually get along with his running mate?
 
@OrangeJuliusEvola (reply bug)

To also add on for those outside of Hawaii: Labor unions has always being a big influence on local elections. You'll notice in the wiki article how the winners have a shit ton of endorsements from the unions. That's not a coincidence.


It was actually the 2000s, cause I remember Furlough Fridays and the Superferry was under Lingle. Outside of that (plus being Jewish and all), she actually had a genuine interest in investing in STEM educational programs (pre-divursity bullshit) which greatly helped influence my current career, so I have bit of a small kine fondness of her. But I was a wee young'un then so more older people will have different views on her legacy. Anyway...

I didn't really keep track of the lieutenant governor candidates. Is the GOP candidate this time less insane than the last one and can actually get along with his running mate?
Yeah, my bad memory. I was out of state for a good portion of her term, and was around for her first failed run in '98. I do *not* have fond memories of her, mostly because at the time I was a shitlib, and after my political awakening, now revile her for keeping away most grass-roots conservative and traditionalist folks and action groups from anywhere near the levers of power. After her term she immediately fucked off to the mainland to become a lobbyist/consultant.

The current GOP lieutenant governor candidate is from within the Hawaii GOP apparatus and is kind of the same wing of the party as Aiona. I really don't feel like either of them believes they have a chance at winning, which is honestly, a correct assessment.
 
Man I really hate how news org put a fucking novel before election results. I don't care about your opinions I just want raw numbers

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Double posting to say things aren't looking hot for the dyke

Cheneysisters...
 
a lot of people seem to think the libs will get out to vote on back of roe v wade being overturned, but from everything i've seen all the left leaning people are sick of the democrats and disappointed with them for never codifying it into law. i think a whole lot of people that normally voted for the dems as the "leftist" party are going to sit out any future elections until things actually change with that party and i don't see that happening any time soon. pile that on with people being fucking broke, everything costing more than it did during trump, and biden's "landmark" inflation reduction act being a whopping nothingburger, i think we're in for a red wave like we've never seen before, and i don't mean the communist kind.
 
They've done really well with the tribalism, so a lot of voters can just say "well troons and BLM are a little bad, but SURELY not all Democrats want that and of course they aren't as bad as those MEAN OL' REPUBLICANS who hate democracy like the nice man on the TV tells me!"

Based on that and other factors like gas prices having dropped by $1.50 in just a few months (at least where I am, that's the biggest drop in my lifetime), it's looking a lot better for the Democrats than a few months ago. Afghanistan is so far behind it's a "literally-what?" moment now, the perception is that Democrats got the gas prices under control (and it wasn't THAT bad since it helped us beat PUTLERMORT after all, right?) and they'll soon fix the economy. Anyone expecting a Red Wave will be as disappointed as the bluechecks who believed the MSM that 2018 would be a Blue Wave. Republicans will win, but not as big as people here say.
I'm sure it will not be absolute, but I fully expect a muddled purple mess of a result, maybe leaning more republican if they do well over the next few months and less so if not. Obviously the republicans will retake the house and probably the senate because if they didn't do that they would bucking almost 30 years of midterms results at this point and it would be a catastrophic result for them.

Edit: I also expect local surprises where state issues supplant national politics, like what happened with Virginia's election over the school issue, and people will wonder why PA went blue or some democrat candidate in New England lost.
 
When it comes to gas prices going down keep in mind this was the result of selling off strategic reserves. That’s not sustainable. There’s a good chance we’ll see prices go back up by voting day
 
When it comes to gas prices going down keep in mind this was the result of selling off strategic reserves. That’s not sustainable. There’s a good chance we’ll see prices go back up by voting day
no, its because the oil is still flowing while demand is going down like crazy...

the red wave will get alot bigger over the next week... the DOJ is playing this
on repeat after raiding Trump over stuff that isnt possible or not criminal...
 
They've done really well with the tribalism, so a lot of voters can just say "well troons and BLM are a little bad, but SURELY not all Democrats want that and of course they aren't as bad as those MEAN OL' REPUBLICANS who hate democracy like the nice man on the TV tells me!"

Based on that and other factors like gas prices having dropped by $1.50 in just a few months (at least where I am, that's the biggest drop in my lifetime), it's looking a lot better for the Democrats than a few months ago. Afghanistan is so far behind it's a "literally-what?" moment now, the perception is that Democrats got the gas prices under control (and it wasn't THAT bad since it helped us beat PUTLERMORT after all, right?) and they'll soon fix the economy. Anyone expecting a Red Wave will be as disappointed as the bluechecks who believed the MSM that 2018 would be a Blue Wave. Republicans will win, but not as big as people here say.
I generally agree. Also in the minds of voters, a bad plan is better than no plan. Republicans have avoided presenting anything as an alternative while Democrats have some very superficial wins under their belt: gas prices dropped, they’re pretending to fight inflation with the Inflation Reduction Act, and MUH 401Ks have largely rebounded. Don’t be surprised if they can pull a number of other surprises out of their ass in these final ten or so weeks left aimed at the suburbs. These “victories” are aimed squarely at low information centrists and independents.

Republicans will make gains because the only time this century when the incumbent party didn’t lose seats during the midterm was in 2002 and we were gearing up for Iraq. So there is nothing special about Republicans making gains. My money is on that they capture both the Senate and House of Representatives but just enough so guys like Mitt Romney can cuck and sink anything too spicy. It’ll be a repeat of the 2017-2019 session. Biden and the executive branch will just keep doing whatever they feel like. Republicans will focus on something retarded like another tax cut and squander their majorities by design.
 
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LIZ CHENEY READY FOR THE NEW JOB AT CNN​

Unless Democrats change their party affiliation en masse to support her, Liz Cheney should experience a resounding defeat in her primary today. Liz has received a tremendous amount of out-of-state campaign funding from Democrats, but it won’t help her win. Cheney should lose Wyoming’s lone congressional seat to her opponent, Harriet Hageman.

Liz Cheney is a neoconservative. A ‘RINO,’ or Republican In Name Only is another moniker that can be applied. Democrats love and support her.

Her war criminal father, Dick Cheney, is also a neocon and so was George W Bush. J’ever notice how Bush, Clinton, and Obama are all good buddies? That’s because they’re all on the same page. The neocons and Democrats are the ‘Uni-party.’ They all ran the same globalist agenda. Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney, and the Trump-hating John McCain all participated in that Deep State Swamp Uni-party.

unholy-trinity.jpg


President Trump, an outsider, wasn’t part of their club and therefore they tried to destroy him.

Liz Cheney carried on father’s hatred of our 45th President by voting for his impeachment and then accepting the vice chair of the January 6 Committee. She helped conduct an absurd, one-sided show trial that allowed ridiculous hearsay evidence against Trump, while not allowing rebuttal.

Dick Cheney made a commercial to support his daughter and in it he let loose a stream of white-hot vitriol against Trump. We saw Cheney’s Darth Vader-like dark side in that commercial. Cheney was probably partly responsible for 9-11 and definitely responsible for getting us into the Iraq war via outright lies. He also bragged about hoodwinking the voters in Wyoming for many years. All he had to do was pretend to be a country boy who shared the values of his voters. Jon Tester here in Montana has done the same thing. Why voters can’t see through Tester’s schtick amazes me. It’s as if Montanans are voting for Pelosi or Chuck Schumer. But I digress.


Liz Cheney should lose and lose big. She will be forced to exit the political stage—at least for a while. Will she run for president? I’d like to see that happen because it means she will get crushed again.

— Ben Garrison

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RINOS ARE GOING EXTINCT​

The primary in Wyoming helped to prove one thing: President Trump controls the Republican party. The neocon remnants who are also known as ‘never Trumpers’ are losing their gip on the party.

Conservative voters want Trump.

They don’t want to vote for fake conservatives who want globalism, endless wars, and believe in ‘climate change.’ They want leaders who want America first. They believe in making America great again.


The neocons are doing their best to bring Trump down, but they are failing. The white-hot anger that emanates from old Neocons such as Dick Cheney only underlines their political impotence. The former Vice President said Trump was a threat to our Constitutional Republic when in fact it’s the Marxist Democrats who are that threat.

The old ruling neoconservatives in the Republican Party have become dinosaurs.

They are destined to become extinct. Trump can help hasten them toward their tar pit.

— Ben Garrison
 
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