UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.

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Chemical snorfare said:
Putting aside the resentment, its the economically sensible thing to do. If they'd spent the money they tied up in housing on goods and services, the tax revenue might have made their care home place free as well.

We are a bit weird when it comes to "investing" in houses.
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I'm not sure it will work in the long term though since people will be advised to transfer their property (With caveats about letting them live in it until they die) instead of leaving it in a will and it'll make no diffrence to them since they'll get to stay in the same care home if need be.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
Such a dip seems incredibly unusual, but a number of polling figures were taken during the Manchester attack, so its possible that a good chunk of support has bled away temporarily. It seems rather odd to me that, when you check the figures, they've dropped 7-8% but those votes have seemingly disappeared.
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If Moz's rant is at all reflective of general attitudes, people were not terribly impressed with the government's handling of that thing. I'm not sure exactly why electing Super Cuck would make things better, but whatever.
 
It is a bit strange. As GP said the social care package was a bit of a fuck up, but other than that I cant think of anything May has done wrong. And lets be honest its just May at this point, Tory central office arent letting any of the vegitables (sorry , old spitting image gag) anywhere near a microphone.

There's a suggestion that now people have been able to see and hear Corbyn speak they realize he's not the child eating Stalinist hes been made out by the right wing press, but then Diane Abbot has also been on TV quite a lot so I'm sure that would counter any swing toward Labour by people informed by TV.

Could it be that Kippers are disappointed there hasnt been a general call to paint the streets of Manchester with the blood of Muslims by the Tories, and think they are a bit moderate?
 
Someone mentioned earlier in the tread that the Tories/conservatives must feel like a Democrat/Hillary supporter did last year, and i agree. But i also think that a lot of Labor party members must feel a lot like Republicans felt during that time as well.

We have a situation were a political party is being led by a man that a large part of its constituents dislike intensely, the fact that Corbyn is getting so close to beating the odds means they are probably going to be stuck with him for the foreseeable future, even if he could ultimately be the reason they lose and they could be doing much better with somebody else.

It reminds me a lot of how Republicans were worried about Trump negatively effecting the GOP when he sailed through the primary's. They still thought he had almost no chance of winning the election, but they knew the base loved him so much that he would probably change the face of the party and make them un-electable.
 
76LD910 said:
It reminds me a lot of how Republicans were worried about Trump negatively effecting the GOP when he sailed through the primary's. They still thought he had almost no chance of winning the election, but they knew the base loved him so much that he would probably change the face of the party and make them un-electable.
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If I love Trump at all, it is precisely because he has completely ass-raped Republicans for decades. For the foreseeable future, all Republican candidates will be excoriated by their own party, either for being too much like Trump, or for being not enough like Trump.

Thanks, Trump!
 
If you check out the UK polling report list here the Tories were still holding a pretty solid lead even as talk of "dementia tax" ramped up in the BBC and Guardian halls. I wonder what next weeks polls will bring.

Kantar a few days earlier still put the tories a good 8 points ahead, but that one isn't being talked about because it doesn't seem to make as good news.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
If you check out the UK polling report list here the Tories were still holding a pretty solid lead even as talk of "dementia tax" ramped up in the BBC and Guardian halls. I wonder what next weeks polls will bring.

Kantar a few days earlier still put the tories a good 8 points ahead, but that one isn't being talked about because it doesn't seem to make as good news.
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The Kantar poll seems to have the 4% Labour vote going entirely to the Greens.
That's too high a margin of error, so I'm not sure what accounts for it. On-line hipsters v telephone grannies like last time?

I'll be honest and say I'd usually be happy at these results, particularly the poke in the eye for the PLP. This time however, I'm worried that May wont have the "and Britain is behind me" she will need for Brexit.
 
I have had leaflets from:

- Greens
- Labour
- Lib Dems x2
- UKIP

Not a single Tory leaflet or poster. And this is meant to be a safe seat.

Come on, lads. Get your fingers out.
 
Ginger Piglet said:
I have had leaflets from:

- Greens
- Labour
- Lib Dems x2
- UKIP

Not a single Tory leaflet or poster. And this is meant to be a safe seat.

Come on, lads. Get your fingers out.
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I've had nothing from anyone here. I think everyone's already agreed that the sitting MP is retaking the seat as they have a stupidly high majority.
 
I've had:

-One from Labour
-Two or three from the Tories
-One from UKIP
-One from Lib Dems
-That ridiculous Peter Wright one.

I think the Tories are focusing here.
 
That being said, the posters are fucking everywhere in the villages around rural East Pillockshire (Twinned with Trumptonshire) where Tory support is at its strongest. These range from "KEEP EAST PILLOCKSHIRE CONSERVATIVE" to plain and pictured images of the grinning, ruddy cheeks of our local MP.

The Tories here have always operated the "Donut" strategy so successfully used by Boris in London as, at its core, Pillockville itself votes for Labour with the less affluent districts tending to stick to labour out of loyalty.

The villages and local farmers (themselves a powerful and respected local block) being solid conservative sorts. However an influx of middle class people from nearby cities wanting a quieter life, also tend to vote Tory, making the area an unfortunate patchwork of "spot the poor people".
 
I've never actually seen a political leaflet. Honestly, I've had the fortune (misfortune?) to live in either solid red or solid blue seat.

This MP 49%, last MP 39%, before that 55% and before that 48% (just checked em)

They turn up, weigh the ballot and that's the last you see of the fuckers for another five years.

The local Kebab shop, they want my vote real bad though.
 
Barrage of polls have come out last night, most taken during the bombing and its aftermath:

Opinium
CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). - 10% lead

COMRES
CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). - 12% lead

ORB
CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2) - 6% lead

YOUGOV
CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc) - 7% lead

ICM
CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1) - 14% lead.

Have another interesting pair of charts -

vN9rUCO.png


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From an article in the Guardian giving pollsters opinion on Labour's bounce in the polls:
“Privately, [pollsters] are terrified and befuddled,” said one senior industry figure. “What the polls are telling us is that seven, eight, nine million people flipped in the last 10 days or so. The real evidence is that campaigns make very little difference when you look at the settled picture before them and the result. It would be unprecedented for there to be this level of churn in a campaign.

“My personal view is I don’t think the Tories were ever 25 points ahead and I don’t think they are only 5% ahead now. I think changes to methodology made since 2015 have exacerbated the volatility.”
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Pickle Inspector said:
From an article in the Guardian giving pollsters opinion on Labour's bounce in the polls:
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From what I've been able to sniff out, a number of voters are doing the old "fuck with the pollsters" trick as well, claiming to vote Labour when they'll pop off and vote Tory and they're doing it on purpose.

Any that show that kind of volatility usually have smaller sample sizes, 2,000 or less when these days polls of 4,000-20,000 give the most accurate pictures, as swing voter loyalty is incredibly soft.

Personally I think the tories are somewhere between 7-10% ahead, about what we saw during Thatcher's time when she was up against a comparable left wing fool.

Things to note of course is that smaller parties have become somewhat more electable, with groups such as the SNP, Plaid and the Greens taking more from the Lib Dems and Labour than they have done in the past, so there could be a lot of upsets as a result of small chunks of votes whittling into Labour support, with around 30 seats or so realising this they're doing electoral pacts and some of them are dodgy as fuck (the greens getting £250k to stand aside in Richmond, for example).

That being said, I think we'll be looking at a majority of 50-90 with the tories taking more seats in Scotland than expected thanks to Ruth Davidson, leaving the tories with much more representation around the country as a whole (and likely a deal with the DUP or UUP) to bolster numbers further should they need them.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
From what I've been able to sniff out, a number of voters are doing the old "fuck with the pollsters" trick as well, claiming to vote Labour when they'll pop off and vote Tory and they're doing it on purpose.

Any that show that kind of volatility usually have smaller sample sizes, 2,000 or less when these days polls of 4,000-20,000 give the most accurate pictures, as swing voter loyalty is incredibly soft.

Personally I think the tories are somewhere between 7-10% ahead, about what we saw during Thatcher's time when she was up against a comparable left wing fool.

Things to note of course is that smaller parties have become somewhat more electable, with groups such as the SNP, Plaid and the Greens taking more from the Lib Dems and Labour than they have done in the past, so there could be a lot of upsets as a result of small chunks of votes whittling into Labour support, with around 30 seats or so realising this they're doing electoral pacts and some of them are dodgy as fuck (the greens getting £250k to stand aside in Richmond, for example).

That being said, I think we'll be looking at a majority of 50-90 with the tories taking more seats in Scotland than expected thanks to Ruth Davidson, leaving the tories with much more representation around the country as a whole (and likely a deal with the DUP or UUP) to bolster numbers further should they need them.
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I do love looking at Labour diehards on Twitter. Whenever a Labour related trend appears they're like 'it's just a little out of touch! It's still good! It's still good!'

Diane Abbot appeared on Marr today and apparently got 'smeared' (read 'arseblasted') while Amber Rudd got 'a cosy chat' (read 'she came off well, and the current trends of the police screaming around Manchester and kicking in the shit of goatfuckers is doing her well')
 
CWCissey said:
I do love looking at Labour diehards on Twitter. Whenever a Labour related trend appears they're like 'it's just a little out of touch! It's still good! It's still good!'

Diane Abbot appeared on Marr today and apparently got 'smeared' (read 'arseblasted') while Amber Rudd got 'a cosy chat' (read 'she came off well, and the current trends of the police screaming around Manchester and kicking in the shit of goatfuckers is doing her well')
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The standard tactic of any criticism of Facebook Momentum types is invariably, "why do you hate poor people."

Then again, they also reckon that this polling trend will continue and in a couple of weeks Labour will be in the lead. Chinny reckon, as we used to say when I was a kid.

I foresee a salt thread on them in their future.
 
Ginger Piglet said:
The standard tactic of any criticism of Facebook Momentum types is invariably, "why do you hate poor people."

Then again, they also reckon that this polling trend will continue and in a couple of weeks Labour will be in the lead. Chinny reckon, as we used to say when I was a kid.

I foresee a salt thread on them in their future.
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Momentum also forget about 'Shy Tories'

A trend they inevitably contribute to with their incessant bitching and whining.
 
CWCissey said:
I do love looking at Labour diehards on Twitter. Whenever a Labour related trend appears they're like 'it's just a little out of touch! It's still good! It's still good!'

Diane Abbot appeared on Marr today and apparently got 'smeared' (read 'arseblasted') while Amber Rudd got 'a cosy chat' (read 'she came off well, and the current trends of the police screaming around Manchester and kicking in the shit of goatfuckers is doing her well')
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Watching the interview now (was asleep when it was on) and you honestly wonder who the hell keeps thinking putting her up for interview is a good idea.

Does Labour HQ all have mercury poisoning or a meth addiction or something?
 
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