President Trump's attempt to rebrand the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act can't mask a grim reality: His economic approval is collapsing, and the data underneath is only getting worse.
Why it matters: Trump is in danger of getting trapped in the same "vibecession" dynamic that doomed President Biden — only this time, the structural signals are flashing red and Trump's signature legislation is toxic.
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Why it matters: Trump is in danger of getting trapped in the same "vibecession" dynamic that doomed President Biden — only this time, the structural signals are flashing red and Trump's signature legislation is toxic.
- Some Republicans already fear inflation could cost them dearly in the 2026 midterms, warning Trump has only a few months to reset his trajectory on voters' most important issue.
- For a president whose credibility on the economy has always been his strongest asset, the prospect of the bottom falling out is uniquely dangerous.
- Trump's favorability on jobs and the economy overall is better, but still underwater at -13.
- 52% of U.S. adults say the economy is "getting worse," while only 24% say it's getting better and 20% say it's about the same, according to The Economist/YouGov polling.
- Trump campaign officials acknowledged the PR crisis in a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill this week, where they urged Republicans to refer to it as the "Working Families Tax Cut Bill."
- Democrats say no amount of rebranding can disguise the reality: The poorest 25% of households lose money under the law while the richest reap the benefits, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
- Inflation is creeping higher as Trump's trade war continues to reorder the global economy, with some analysts predicting drug shortages and an uncertain holiday season.
- The labor market is softening: Layoffs are rising, and the number of unemployed workers now exceeds job openings for the first time since April 2021.
- The housing market is on shaky footing, with interest rates relatively high and supply stagnant.
- Manufacturing was supposed to be the biggest beneficiary of Trump's tariffs. Instead, economic activity has shrunk for six months running and now the sector is shedding jobs.
- A nonpartisan analysis found the average American will receive a $3,752 federal tax cut in 2026 under the new law — though that's compared to a world without the bill, not today's tax rates.
- The White House is also touting no tax on tips, $1,000 "Trump accounts" for newborns and other worker-friendly provisions as proof the legislation helps ordinary households.
- Wall Street is not the economy, but the disconnect is stark: Even as Trump's poll numbers lag, the market is up more than 8% since he took office — a huge boost for the 62% of Americans who say they own stocks.
- "As these unprecedented trade deals and the Administration's pro-growth domestic agenda of deregulation and historic working-class tax cuts take effect, American businesses and families alike have the certainty that the best is yet to come."
- That could leave the battle over economic perception to messaging and marketing, with billions of dollars in political ad spending expected before the midterms.
- If that's the case, Trump may wind up learning Biden's hard lesson: You can't convince voters the economy is strong when their lived experience tells them it's weak.
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