Trump 2016

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Sweet and Savoury said:
I hope Bernie wins. I'm honestly worried at what will happen if we get Clinton 2.0 as president.
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NeverHappened said:
I hope Bernie wins because I have a strong feeling Hillary or random Republican will actually start some major war.
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How does this make you feel? Your man probably would have won Iowa.
 
King n Yellow said:
Still it puts a dent in all the various polls that had Trump ahead by 5-10 points of Cruz and the pundits that said Trump WOULD win. It shows Trump is beatable.
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Kinda sorta. We now know that Trump supporters aren't dedicated enough to spend 2 hours caucusing, but they may still bother to show up to vote in other states that don't have a goofy caucus system.
 
Ass Manager 3000 said:
@TrippinKahlua Your thoughts?
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Is this the General election? Seems a little early to want to know my thoughts...

But anyway, this sounds like some sort of stock sore loser phrase, but ultimately, Iowa does not mean anything. Very rarely in recent times has te Republican Nominee won Iowa. Whoever wins the best of three is gonna win the whole thing.

Thats why 2012s Primary season was so wacky. Iowa, Santorum, NH, Romney, SC, Gingrich.
 
Trump's not even close to done for unless he also loses New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
 
trombonista said:
Trump's not even close to done for unless he also loses New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
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Trump has 3 factors against him NH

1. Cruz riding the media high of winning Iowa
2. The fact Rubio almost edged him out for second. Rubio is starting to become a media darling as everyone was generally surprised at his sudden surge
3. Chris Christie has been campaigning hardcore in NH and while he was at the bottom of the pack in Iowa, there is a very real chance the votes going to him could cut into Trumps

Trump losing in a not even close race has destroyed some of the flair about him. A loss in NH could potentially destroy it all depending on well he fairs.
 
Bork Laser said:
Trump losing in a not even close race has destroyed some of the flair about him. A loss in NH could potentially destroy it all depending on well he fairs.
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Fivethirtyeight's predictions give Trump a 58% chance of winning New Hampshire, but perhaps more interestingly, give Sanders a 91% chance of winning New Hampshire.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

The links give a breakdown on the actual spread of likely outcomes as they reckon it.
 
AnOminous said:
Fivethirtyeight's predictions give Trump a 58% chance of winning New Hampshire, but perhaps more interestingly, give Sanders a 91% chance of winning New Hampshire.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

The links give a breakdown on the actual spread of likely outcomes as they reckon it.
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Unfortunately for Sanders supporters, not only does she hold a large national average in polling, but the Democrats' superdelegate system killedhim from the starting gate. She started with a whopping 359 delegates to Sanders' 8. Keep in mind people have been claiming Iowa means the death of Trump because he's down by 1 whole delegate; Bernie is down by 356 after Iowa! An outsider like Trump simply wouldn't be able to win the DNC ticket.

That said, there's hope for you Bernie Sanders fans in the fact that Hillary is facing two separate FBI investigations, and the evidence grows more and more damning.

For the sake of Trump's campaign, this isn't relevant yet I suppose... Still a lot of time before the general election.
 
NeverHappened said:
I hope Bernie wins because I have a strong feeling Hillary or random Republican will actually start some major war.
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Hillary Clinton will do whatever seems personally advantageous for the time.

In the past, from her, this has often meant explicitly opposing starting or expanding wars. Each time she's done this, it's also meant that she made the exact wrong calls and caused significantly more problems by her actions than would've happened otherwise. She made the wrong call on Bosnia, the wrong call on Rwanda, the wrong call on pretty much everything she did while Secretary of State, up to and including simultaneously getting involved in a war she was advised against entering and making all the wrong calls once she had the nation commit even to the point of tossing the people's lives she was willing to risk under the bus and trashing the protections of the First Amendment on live television to promote a story she already knew was bullshit for the purposes of covering her ass.

The worst part is, even though she regularly manages to put our nation in the worst of all possible options, this strategy has given her popularity significant shielding from criticism. "Chris Stevens is dead? That was probably the not-a-Muslim-as-far-as-I-know gentleman at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave."

DawnDusk said:
Unfortunately for Sanders supporters, not only does she hold a large national average in polling, but the Democrats' superdelegate system killedhim from the starting gate. She started with a whopping 359 delegates to Sanders' 8. Keep in mind people have been claiming Iowa means the death of Trump because he's down by 1 whole delegate; Bernie is down by 356 after Iowa! An outsider like Trump simply wouldn't be able to win the DNC ticket.

That said, there's hope for you Bernie Sanders fans in the fact that Hillary is facing two separate FBI investigations, and the evidence grows more and more damning.

For the sake of Trump's campaign, this isn't relevant yet I suppose... Still a lot of time before the general election.
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What worries me is that shit'll only hit the fan after the election ends, and she'll swing things so Obama gives her a pardon under the realpolitik principle of "well it's not like we can have a Republican in office." Which, if Obama actually does go through with such a thing, might be an act of such brazen cynicism that people vote for whoever the Republicans nominate out of spite even if they do wind up picking Trump.

Then, upon winning the election, Trump picks Clinton for Secretary of State.
 
AnOminous said:
Fivethirtyeight's predictions give Trump a 58% chance of winning New Hampshire, but perhaps more interestingly, give Sanders a 91% chance of winning New Hampshire.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

The links give a breakdown on the actual spread of likely outcomes as they reckon it.
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Trump could still pull it off but I dont think those polls reflect his chances after Iowa yet. Too me alot of the Trump crowd seems to people who want someone who wins absolutely. I have a feeling his loss in Iowa might shake their faith a bit. Enough to mater, I don't know.

As for Sanders, his victory in NH is almost a given. Unlike Trump, Sanders basically stalemating Clinton only to lose on technicality is win for him. His real challenge though is his appeal to minorities in states like SC.
*Asterisk* said:
and she'll swing things so Obama gives her a pardon under the realpolitik principle of "well it's not like we can have a Republican in office."
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Theres no way Obama would do this. If Clinton by some miracle gets indicted every Democrat will have to move away from her. Obama pardoning her during the election season will cripple the Democrats for YEARS. The DNC likes Clinton and wants her in office but not at the cost of long term wins.
 

Allum Bokhari is threatening to drop some "explosive" bombs on Cruz.

It's probably just about him fucking over Carson though.
 
Well Trump is now wanting a "new election" in Iowa and is claiming Cruz stole votes. So much for Trump taking defeat well I suppose. :(
 
Puppet Pal Clem said:
He's definitely salty, but Cruz was truthfully playing it dirty.
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Playing dirty politics is one thing though, you can be deceptive to voters and trick candidates all you want, that's perfectly legal (still dirty though). IF there was a really close vote (like with Bernie and Hillary) or there evidence of stuffed ballot boxes, had people vote twice or had people using dead people's names to vote on the other hand, then Trump would definitely have a reason to call for a new caucus vote. Plus there would probably be an investigation etc.
 
King n Yellow said:
you can be deceptive to voters and trick candidates all you want, that's perfectly legal
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His intimidation letters seem to be explicit election misconduct under Iowa voting laws about voting duress, which includes even impartial coercion to vote.
https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/ElectionLaws/ElectionLaws.pdf (see 39A.2)

I would imagine deliberately misinforming prospective voters that their chosen candidate has dropped out is also an explicit violation.

I agree there won't be a new caucus though.
 
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