I've said this before, but if something like 5% of men are rapists, and a woman is interacting with something even like 15 different men in various capacities every day, the individual chance that any man she meets is a rapist is low, but after about a week there's a near certain chance she will have encountered at least one male rapist. Now obviously this is an oversimplification, encountering doesn't mean something happens, and this calculation is assuming new men each day, but the overall point is this; The total number of problem actors in a population can be overall low, but repeated interactions will eventually produce a problem guaranteed, and with men and women the danger is so immediately obvious that no society on earth has ever ignored it.
The issue is that admitting this dynamic with troons in particular would blow up the trans position, because if troons commit sexually predatory behavior even just at typical male rates (and we all know they actually seem to be worse), that alone would be enough of a reason justify excluding them from female spaces, because they asymmetry of danger is just so stark. In no other comparison is one side virtually guaranteed to be at a physical disadvantage to the other, other than maybe adults and children, which is exactly why the same logic of watchfulness and protection applies. The logic of including troons into female spaces only works the premise that troons are, in both tendencies and physical capabilities, equivalent to women and not men. Otherwise the only available argument is that, despite all evidence to the contrary, men are not much more likely to be a danger to women than vice versa. These are both impossible sells to the public. You can convince corporate HR people and NGO NPCs for a while, you can get the professional class liberal simps to pay lip service, since they already operate in an ideological bubble, but you cannot convince an entire population to ignore the obvious reality in front of them. If troons had been willing to accept that they would be treated "as women" in some, but not all, social situations, I don't think people would be nearly as militant in the backlash. Sure there would have been bullying and insulting, but anti-trans talking points are finding purchase specifically because they align more with material reality than the alternative presented.
