UN Theresa May faces no confidence vote - Laugh at and mock a diabetic old lady here.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

UK Prime Minister Theresa May faces a vote of confidence in her leadership later after 48 of her Conservative MPs called for one to be held.

But a defiant Mrs May vowed to contest the vote "with everything I have got".

She warned that a new prime minister would be faced with the choice of "delaying or even stopping Brexit".

A majority of Tory MPs have publicly said they will back the PM in the vote, which runs for two hours from 18:00 GMT, but it is a secret ballot.

A result is expected fairly quickly after the voting finishes.

Can she survive the confidence vote?
Immediate statements of loyalty for the prime minister were issued by every member of her cabinet, including several who have been touted as possible successors.

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Mrs May was "the best person to make sure we actually leave the EU on March 29", while Home Secretary Sajid Javid said a leadership contest would be seen as "self-indulgent and wrong".

So far, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against, according to BBC research. She needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs to survive.

If Mrs May wins the confidence vote she cannot be challenged as Conservative leader for at least another year.

If she does not win the vote there would then be a Conservative leadership contest in which she could not stand.

If Mrs May won - but not overwhelmingly - she may decide to stand down as party leader and trigger a leadership contest in which she could not stand.

A Conservative Party spokesman said Mrs May was "fighting for every vote" and said she did not believe the contest was about who leads the party into the next general election, but about whether this is the time to change leader.

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Media captionSir Graham Brady says he phoned the prime minister to advise her the threshold of 48 letters had been reached
What has Theresa May said?
In her statement delivered early on Wednesday morning, Mrs May said: "A leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation or the Parliamentary arithmetic.

"Weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division just as we should be standing together to serve our country. None of that would be in the national interest."

She said she was making progress in her talks with EU leaders and vowed to "deliver on the referendum vote and seize the opportunities that lie ahead".

The Conservatives had to build a "country that works for everyone" and deliver "the Brexit people voted for".

"I have devoted myself unsparingly to these tasks ever since I became prime minister and I stand ready to finish the job."

Will there be a new prime minister if she loses the vote?
Not immediately. She would be expected to stay on as a caretaker prime minister until a new Conservative leader is selected by the party, a process that could take up to six weeks.

If there are multiple candidates, Conservative MPs hold a series of votes to choose two to go forward to a vote of party members.

As leader of the largest party in the Commons, the new Conservative leader would then be expected to be asked to form a government and become prime minister, without a general election.

It's Wednesday, so... Prime Minister's Questions
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Media captionJeremy Corbyn criticises Theresa May at PMQs
Mrs May faced repeated calls from Labour MPs for her to quit - or hold another EU referendum - at a rowdy Prime Minister's Questions.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: "The time for dithering and delay is over. The prime minister has negotiated her deal. She has told us it is the best and only deal available.

"There can be no more excuses, no more running away. Put it before Parliament and let's have the vote."

Mrs May said the vote will take place, and as Labour MPs shouted "when?" at her she said: "We've had a meaningful vote, we had it in in the referendum in 2016."

The PM added: "And if he wants a meaningful date I'll give him one; 29 March 2019 when we leave the European Union."

Veteran pro-European MP Ken Clarke called the prospect of a leadership contest "unhelpful, irrelevant and irresponsible", prompting loud cheers from the Tory benches.

But the SNP's leader at Westminster Ian Blackford called on Mrs May to stand down, saying her government was "an embarrassment".

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Media caption'The inconstant gardener' - May's PMQs swipe at Labour
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Analysis
By BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg

The prime minister who promised she would be strong and stable is instead at the top of a party that looks weak and chaotic at a vital time.

She's in this position, her critics say, because of the choices and missteps she has made.

But her supporters would say it was because for some people in the Tory party who have had years of fury about Europe, nothing would ever have been good enough.

One of her cabinet colleagues is predicting a "long day" but a "solid win". Let's see.

Read Laura's blog

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Who is trying to oust Mrs May?
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Image copyrightPA
Image captionJacob Rees-Mogg: In the national interest, she must go
The challenge has been brought by Conservative MPs who think Mrs May has watered down the Brexit voters were promised in the 2016 referendum.

The PM thought she had seen off an attempt by this group of Brexiteers to get rid of her last month.

But her decision to cancel Tuesday's Parliamentary vote on her deal at the last minute proved to be the final straw for many who had previously given her the benefit of the doubt.

There needed to be 48 MPs calling for her to go - out of 315 Conservative MPs - to trigger a confidence vote and this threshold was reached on Tuesday.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has led backbench calls for her to go, said: "Theresa May's plan would bring down the government if carried forward. But our party will rightly not tolerate it.

"Conservatives must now answer whether they wish to draw ever closer to an election under Mrs May's leadership. In the national interest, she must go."

Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, who is campaigning for a further referendum, told BBC Radio 2 she she hoped Mr Rees-Mogg's group would "get a kicking" in the vote and that their "pompous gesturing" will be exposed.

Why are they trying to get rid of her?
They don't like the deal she has struck with the EU, which they say will keep the UK tied to the EU indefinitely with no say over its rules and unable to strike trade deals around the world.

Anger has focused on the so-called "backstop" to prevent the return of a physical border in Northern Ireland.

Mrs May has said she is seeking guarantees that this clause will be "temporary" but the Democratic Unionist Party, which she relies on to win key votes, wants the backstop to be ditched altogether.

And her Conservative critics think she will not be able to get anything more than cosmetic changes to her withdrawal deal because EU leaders say it can not be renegotiated.

Who are the frontrunners to lead the party if she loses?
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Image copyrightAFP
Image captionJeremy Hunt, Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Amber Rudd
There are many names being floated, with Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd among cabinet ministers rated by the bookmakers.

Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, ex-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis are the ex-cabinet ministers also judged to be in the running.

But, as BBC Political editor Laura Kuenssberg says, the field of hopefuls could be much larger and, initially at least, resemble the start of a Grand National.

What does it mean for Brexit?
In the short term it means Mrs May has had to call off talks with other EU leaders - including Irish premier Leo Varadkar - to fight for her leadership.

She had meetings on Tuesday with Germany's Angela Merkel and top EU officials as part of efforts to get changes to her EU deal to get it through the UK Parliament.

If she is ousted as Tory leader later she could still attend Thursday's EU summit as prime minister, but her deal would effectively be seen as dead.

Mrs May says any new Conservative leader would have to delay Brexit to renegotiate a deal with the EU.

But many of those calling for her to go say they would be happy for the UK to leave the EU on World Trade Organization terms, without a deal. They say warnings of economic doom are exaggerated.

Mrs May says a leadership contest will effectively hand control of the Brexit process to MPs, and with no majority in Parliament for a no-deal Brexit other options could emerge.

Some MPs are pushing for a Norway-style relationship with the EU, much closer than the one proposed by Mrs May.

Others are calling for a further referendum, with the option to stay in the EU on the ballot paper.

I think this is a big enough story to get its own thread. Plus I'd like to easily see some spicy memes about this.
 
Owned, good, etc.

I mean who didn't see this coming after how she handled Brexit.
 
"So far, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against, according to BBC research. She needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs to survive."

Sorry lads, sounds like she's not going.

How are there fewer declared against than letters submitted?
 
"So far, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against, according to BBC research. She needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs to survive."

Sorry lads, sounds like she's not going.

How are there fewer declared against than letters submitted?

Tories for you. They say they'll back her now (and the Monster Raving Loony Party is pointing this out beautifully on Twatter at the mo) purely to save their oily hides. Once they're in the secret ballot their opinions may vastly change.
 
"So far, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against, according to BBC research. She needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs to survive."

Sorry lads, sounds like she's not going.

How are there fewer declared against than letters submitted?

Tories are lying bastards, that's how.
 
OP said:
But a defiant Mrs May vowed to contest the vote "with everything I have got".

So, an impotent, slightly harshly worded memo, then?

That being said, I'm not particularly optimistic about the outcome. May's going to hang on to the PM's seat even unto it's meanest dregs, even if it means breaking the government now and the Tories for a decade. Sucks, but if she wasn't this way she wouldn't have be facing a no confidence vote to begin with, since she wouldn't have transparently tried to spike the ball on Brexit. Ya know, the thing that got her the role in the first place.

What is it the kids say these days? "You had ONE job..."
 
If I were her, I'd just take the opportunity to resign. Who the fuck wants to be person holding the brexit hot potato when it explodes? She can get out now with at least some shreds of dignity remaining.
 
Corbyn was smart to hold off tabling the motion of no confidence (despite pressure from MPs), as it would otherwise force the Tories to rally around May out of fear that it would lead to a Labour minority government.

We just get to watch the Tories tear themselves apart here.
 
So, if this goes through and May ends up on the losing side, what happens then in the UK Government? Will her party choose a new leader who will then be in charge, will there be elections for that post?
 
So, if this goes through and May ends up on the losing side, what happens then in the UK Government? Will her party choose a new leader who will then be in charge, will there be elections for that post?

Possibly.

The Tory MPs ballot themselves until they come down to two candidates, these candidates are then put to the membership to vote on.

May only got the job because Gove suicide bombed Boris, and Leadsom got torn asunder by the press for her words on saying childless couples have no stake in the future (boy how prescient those words are now).

So, end result is if she does lose, the Tories will have to pick two choices. A coronation was disastrous last time and it's unlikely they will risk not balloting the membership again this time. Meaning a Brexiteer PM is more likely.

So, new leader, new election? Welp. Nope. It's conventional for a new leader to go for a snap election to shore up their position with the elecorate but you don't actually have to. There doesn't really need to be anything "redone". Hard Remaniac Tory MPs are currently outnumbered by the DUP and Labour Brexiteer rebels, with the remainder likely to fall in line out of personal self preservation.

John Major would go two years before calling an election which he'd then go on to win before stuff like the ERM and recession fucked him over in 94.

Despite all this, however, BetFair currently has May surviving running at 9:1.
 
Tories for you. They say they'll back her now (and the Monster Raving Loony Party is pointing this out beautifully on Twatter at the mo) purely to save their oily hides. Once they're in the secret ballot their opinions may vastly change.

The shy Tory phenomenon has grown to the point where even their elected MPs fit the stereotype.
 
Thanks for the info, I was just wondering if this lead to a "regular" election, it would be too time consuming, I guess.
Though I sort of pity the person that'll take over, they inherit a really shitty position and I don't see much room to change much. The EU already said multiple times that they are not going to renegotiate, so whoever's taking over, he'll have to struggle quite a lot.
 
I can't wait for Tezza's leaving drinks, we'll have a right old time at Chequers. I wonder, will she be kind enough to foot the bar tab, or would we have to BYOB?
 
Thanks for the info, I was just wondering if this lead to a "regular" election, it would be too time consuming, I guess.
Though I sort of pity the person that'll take over, they inherit a really shitty position and I don't see much room to change much. The EU already said multiple times that they are not going to renegotiate, so whoever's taking over, he'll have to struggle quite a lot.

Nah, you send the EU into a blind panic by going "Deal's off, it's WTO rules and I'm throwing the whole government into this process."

Right now, No Deal prep has been made, but it's been somewhat lackadaisical. If a government spams resources at it, it can get shit done surprisingly fast.
 
The only person who should be leading the UK right now is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Yeah, he's a toff. Yeah, he's the most cliche toff possible. But honestly, he's the only person I feel actually has the county's best interests at heart. He's not a politician, trying to weasel his way into power. He legit seems like a guy who got into politics because he was bored and wanted to keep an eye on the scumbags in parliament. I don't trust any of the rest of them to do the right thing and unless they put up someone who genuinely inspires confidence, they're going to lose to Corbyn.
The sad part is I doubt Jacob Rees-Mogg will ever get in for long. A lot of the British public have a knee-jerk reaction against people like him, assuming he's a disconnected toff who doesn't understand the plight of the working man. Also, the regressives will hate him just for being what he is (cis-het, white, male, wealthy, not insane).
 
The only person who should be leading the UK right now is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Yeah, he's a toff. Yeah, he's the most cliche toff possible. But honestly, he's the only person I feel actually has the county's best interests at heart. He's not a politician, trying to weasel his way into power. He legit seems like a guy who got into politics because he was bored and wanted to keep an eye on the scumbags in parliament. I don't trust any of the rest of them to do the right thing and unless they put up someone who genuinely inspires confidence, they're going to lose to Corbyn.
The sad part is I doubt Jacob Rees-Mogg will ever get in for long. A lot of the British public have a knee-jerk reaction against people like him, assuming he's a disconnected toff who doesn't understand the plight of the working man. Also, the regressives will hate him just for being what he is (cis-het, white, male, wealthy, not insane).

JRM's one of those conundrum politicians. On paper he should be the most toffiest of stupid toffs humanly possible. But he has a streak of Noblisse Oblige running through him which means he keeps a close eye on stuff.

A few years back it became a running thing to ask random politicians what the price of milk and bread was. JRM's one of the few politicians I remember who answered it right away... mostly because he'd been shopping just before his interview.
 
I do actually like JRM he's kind of a posh twat, but that's actually fairly entertaining.
Not to mention he actually seems to have principles unlike almost every other tory, he didn't want Brexit but he actually respects the will of the British people.
 
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