Reform probably are worth a thread of their own at this point. And the debate was starting to swamp the Brit News thread. So good on you for this. You have your colours nailed to the mast as a Reform champion and that's fine. Doing something is better than doing nothing. Right now if there were suddenly a General Election Reform would probably win based on current polling. If they didn't win they'd be a powerful Opposition but I think they'd win. But Labour will drag things out as long as possible so we're likely years away. It's really Reform's game to lose. I can't see Labour really getting their act together in any meaningful way in the next few years - though I can imagine Starmer going long before then. And even if they did get their act together, there are deep problems in this country which Labour will take the blame for as incumbents rightly or wrongly (largely rightly though). The Tories seem to be getting their act together (no really) which is an issue for people in this country who want a more nationalistic and less socialist government because it means the chief viable options will be between Reform and the Tories, which is effectively a form of infighting on the Right. Oh, I did forget about the Lib Dems, but then I always do!
Reform are still a protest party for a lot of people. And that's what propelled Reform to where they are now - the desire of people to reject the mainstream parties. So I think the Greens will see quite a surge as well (which is somewhat alarming). Where I see Reform getting into trouble is if they lose that protest vote. And I think recent moves have started to threaten that. Establishment Tories have been defecting in high profile cases. Exactly the sort that many voters don't like. Even Labour ones jumping ship. What Reform are casting this as is that they are the general vehicle for overhaul and change for anyone who is sick of the way things are and the general government incompetence and corruption. And that's the best messaging they could do and there's some merit to that. But I think they are also seen, and with some reason, as becoming the thing they claim to oppose. Like the pigs morphing into the farmers at the end of Animal Farm. I am not nor have I ever been, a fan of Big Tent politics.
Reform's success is contingent on people seeing them as having integrity and intent to deliver on their promise of being a real alternative. Little undermines that more than seeing it inflate to include some of its latest high profile acquisitions. I think Farage has just noticed this as I saw him make a statement earlier about not being a life raft for scared Tories or something. But it's still an issue.
Kemi Badenoch honestly pulled a blinder with denouncing Jenrick before he could pull his big reveal on his own terms. However she got wind of the defection, she was able to kick him out, label him as a traitor and suck every bit of wind out whatever clever framing he had prepared for sticking the knife and jumping to Reform.
Farage is collecting big names (but keeping out any that are too big and might be a rival) but really it's time for new blood, raising up new names and candidates. That's really what people want. But it's not what I see Reform doing enough of. The reverse in fact. I've seen new campaign people brought in from the Tories begin purges of genuine LOCAL candidates who are liked, eloquent and helped get Reform where it is - along with their supporters if they wouldn't fall in line with the new order. Reform are ahead now, but they have to maintain that for likely a few more years. The biggest threat is within Reform, honestly. If by the time of the GE they are seen as just the Establishment wearing a new face, they might win but they wont change anything.
An old line from the Bible comes to mind: "What does it profit to gain the whole world if you lose your soul in doing so?"
I think Reform could win by staying laser focused on corruption, immigration and reforming the Civil Service. What I think is going to happen is that their Big Tent politics will absorb so much that they lose. You are what you eat, after all.
Conversely, I think the Tories will get their act together a lot more than people think in the next few years. I see the departure of people like Jenrick as a BOOST for the Tories. He's interested in power, not loyalty and policy. He's also making a strategic mistake in that by trying to claim the centre he may push the Tories further Right. Which is what many people actually want. It's even conceivable we could see a Reform government and a Tory opposition (but not the other way around) which would be hilarious. (Well, hilarious in some ways. I'm checking there are no monkey's paws nearby when I say this).
I respect your position and your passion and I certainly think it's better to do something than to sit around bitching, so I'm going to preface what I'm about to say with some positive things. I think there's some very good things about Reform, I think they are at minimum going to do very well and have a good chance they may win a majority at the next GE. I'm also pretty confident that many of the people on this forum who have criticised Reform would still vote for them over any other parties if a GE were called tomorrow. However, I don't trust Farage to see things through. I don't think he is ideological enough to give Reform voters what they want. Politics has changed. The winners aren't going to be the wheeler dealers, they're going to be the revolutionaries and the zealots. If that's not Reform at the next GE then it's going to be some Muslim party or some Rupert Lowe party or some other at the one after.
Western countries are in a mess right now. Catastrophic national debt levels, industrial flight, demographic collapses. The consequences of these drive people to seek single-minded strong leaders with a clear ideological bent. However good Farage is at making deals, I don't think he's that.
Again, you have a lot of my respect for your dedication and I am not condemning Reform. And I think it's likely to do very well. I think if paired with a Tory opposition to keep needling it to the Right, it could be good for Britain. There are major issues in this country (esp. some of Blair's laws and the civil service) that will require a large majority to put right. I will even concede that views of people like me probably don't align that well with the general population - Farage seems to do pretty well in general and may do very well in terms of getting elected. But I want more than someone getting elected. I want to know they will change things.
