Original (Archive)
Let’s take a little detour from the midterms.
Yes, the focus right now is fighting President Donald Trump and maximizing the blue wave at this year’s midterm elections. On those fronts, the latest Emerson College poll has plenty to like: 55% of likely voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, and Democrats lead Republicans by 8 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, which measures broad attitudes about which party voters want to see control Congress. All signs still point to a brutal midterm this year for the GOP.
But it’s fine to have a little fun, too. And the poll also offered a little nugget about the hypothetical 2028 contest for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads the pack, with 20% support among likely Democratic primary voters, though he and the others included in the poll haven’t announced their campaigns yet.
Of course, the largest share goes to “Undecided,” at 24% support. Because, realistically, isn’t everyone undecided? No one knows what the field will look like in 2027, when this thing kicks off in earnest. There will be 20 candidates—or maybe more. It’s as open as it gets.
Newsom’s pitch is obvious: He’s signaling that Democrats don’t have to play nice anymore. For voters who want someone willing to use every tool Trump normalized—and that this Supreme Court has blessed—to repair the damage done to the country, the California governor is staking a clear claim. He’s not presenting himself as someone bound by elite notions of decorum or tradition.
If other Democrats are smart, they’ll crowd into that lane. I hope they all do. But expect a few to misread the moment and talk about returning to “norms” and “traditions,” as if that’s what voters are clamoring for. One of the biggest questions in 2028 will be whether Democrats are willing to fully wield the powers that would be available to them if they won the White House. If the Supreme Court says agencies can be dismantled regardless of congressional authorization, that door swings both ways. Goodbye, Immigration and Customs Enforcement!
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who also ran for the nomination in 2020, has undeniable political talent. He’s remained visible and relevant despite not holding office this past year. He’ll be a player.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 nominee, must be taken seriously as well, though Democrats historically haven’t been generous about giving losing presidential nominees a second chance.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is another name to watch. Everything I’ve heard is that she’s at least considering a run. A challenge to New York Sen. Chuck Schumer would be compelling in its own right, but I would kill to see a President AOC.
Don’t underestimate Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. His state is a battleground state, and his numbers there are extraordinary: 56% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job he’s doing, while only 29% disapprove, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Even 24% of Republican voters approve of his job performance. The same poll shows him crushing a Republican gubernatorial challenger, 55% to 37%, this November—in a state Trump won. Expect him to beat those numbers once the votes are actually counted. However, whether that popularity translates nationally in 2028 is another question.
I do love Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Along with Newsom, he’s been among the most aggressive governors opposing the Trump agenda, and he effectively chased federal agents out of Chicago before they descended on Minneapolis. But it’s going to be tough for him to stand out in a field of candidates with more, let’s say, rizz.
As for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, she’s dead on arrival. There’s nothing like literally embracing Trump to kill any shot this former rising star might’ve had.
And this list is far from complete. Expect Sens. Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, Chris Murphy, and Mark Kelly to seriously weigh a run. There are even rumors about billionaire Mark Cuban poking around the idea.
The smartest move right now isn’t attaching to a single name. It’s defining the agenda. Push for the kind of presidency you want to see. For me, it’s one that’s aggressive, unafraid of conflict, and willing to use executive power to deliver tangible change. If multiple candidates embrace that vision, the odds of electing it increase.
The field is wide open. The work now is making sure whoever emerges is ready to meet the moment, and that we’re unified behind the kind of leadership that can deliver.
Let’s take a little detour from the midterms.
Yes, the focus right now is fighting President Donald Trump and maximizing the blue wave at this year’s midterm elections. On those fronts, the latest Emerson College poll has plenty to like: 55% of likely voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, and Democrats lead Republicans by 8 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, which measures broad attitudes about which party voters want to see control Congress. All signs still point to a brutal midterm this year for the GOP.
But it’s fine to have a little fun, too. And the poll also offered a little nugget about the hypothetical 2028 contest for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads the pack, with 20% support among likely Democratic primary voters, though he and the others included in the poll haven’t announced their campaigns yet.
Of course, the largest share goes to “Undecided,” at 24% support. Because, realistically, isn’t everyone undecided? No one knows what the field will look like in 2027, when this thing kicks off in earnest. There will be 20 candidates—or maybe more. It’s as open as it gets.
Newsom’s pitch is obvious: He’s signaling that Democrats don’t have to play nice anymore. For voters who want someone willing to use every tool Trump normalized—and that this Supreme Court has blessed—to repair the damage done to the country, the California governor is staking a clear claim. He’s not presenting himself as someone bound by elite notions of decorum or tradition.
If other Democrats are smart, they’ll crowd into that lane. I hope they all do. But expect a few to misread the moment and talk about returning to “norms” and “traditions,” as if that’s what voters are clamoring for. One of the biggest questions in 2028 will be whether Democrats are willing to fully wield the powers that would be available to them if they won the White House. If the Supreme Court says agencies can be dismantled regardless of congressional authorization, that door swings both ways. Goodbye, Immigration and Customs Enforcement!
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who also ran for the nomination in 2020, has undeniable political talent. He’s remained visible and relevant despite not holding office this past year. He’ll be a player.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 nominee, must be taken seriously as well, though Democrats historically haven’t been generous about giving losing presidential nominees a second chance.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is another name to watch. Everything I’ve heard is that she’s at least considering a run. A challenge to New York Sen. Chuck Schumer would be compelling in its own right, but I would kill to see a President AOC.
Don’t underestimate Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. His state is a battleground state, and his numbers there are extraordinary: 56% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job he’s doing, while only 29% disapprove, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Even 24% of Republican voters approve of his job performance. The same poll shows him crushing a Republican gubernatorial challenger, 55% to 37%, this November—in a state Trump won. Expect him to beat those numbers once the votes are actually counted. However, whether that popularity translates nationally in 2028 is another question.
I do love Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Along with Newsom, he’s been among the most aggressive governors opposing the Trump agenda, and he effectively chased federal agents out of Chicago before they descended on Minneapolis. But it’s going to be tough for him to stand out in a field of candidates with more, let’s say, rizz.
As for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, she’s dead on arrival. There’s nothing like literally embracing Trump to kill any shot this former rising star might’ve had.
And this list is far from complete. Expect Sens. Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, Chris Murphy, and Mark Kelly to seriously weigh a run. There are even rumors about billionaire Mark Cuban poking around the idea.
The smartest move right now isn’t attaching to a single name. It’s defining the agenda. Push for the kind of presidency you want to see. For me, it’s one that’s aggressive, unafraid of conflict, and willing to use executive power to deliver tangible change. If multiple candidates embrace that vision, the odds of electing it increase.
The field is wide open. The work now is making sure whoever emerges is ready to meet the moment, and that we’re unified behind the kind of leadership that can deliver.
