Sudan 2023 Crisis Watch - For the three people that care about this dump of a country.

[Sneeter Rabbit]

Can you break it down for the retards like me? Why is this the American-backed coup, and not the one that took out al-Bashir? The RSF leader Dagalo is pro-Russia.

it isn't a coup by the united states, its a consolidation of power on the part of the biggest chief in sudan. the coup was instigated by both warlords, burhan and hemedti, against a basically feeble civilian government two years ago iirc. the prospective successor to bashir, burhan, is trying to oust hemedti and assimilate the paramilitaries bashir set up to handle rebels in darfur into the army proper.
hemedti correctly sees that as a threat to his power, so he rolls the dice. as for western support goes, burhan could probably leverage the russian port deal being scrapped in order to garner recognition from the united states. egyptian support is probably something to do with continuing sudan's opposition to the grand ethiopian renaissance dam being filled. keeping the thing as useless as possible is a major strategic objective for egypt and i think sudan shares that interest. egypt is more active in assuring water security since the gerd was built, and will probably try to destroy or cripple the thing completely if it ever gets the opportunity. for that it needs strong regional allies, such as a sudan under burhan's sole rule with the paramilitaries castrated.

dagalo/hemedti was afaik the one who negotiated the russian red sea port treaty, which will only be ratified once sudan 'retransitions to civilian government,' when a big chief emerges from the unworkable power sharing agreement between the two leaders of the coups against bashir (19) and the former civilian govt (21) to set the tune of the pseudo-constitutional order that will prevail in sudan for the coming years.
perhaps burhan is leveraging this treaty to gain more support from the united states, beyond that which he already receives from egypt? russia probably has an interest in preserving the treaty as well as its lucrative gold mining concessions in sudan, not to mention the presumably friendly working relationship they have with hemedti on the border of sudan and the perpeutally burning car. orchestral movements in the car may be benefitial to the janjaweed's original goal of shitting on darfuri rebels. my head hurts thinking about all this niggardry, that is the greatest war crime so far.
TLDR its a local conflict into which the vying superpower and regional power are both drawn for the sake of their own interests - an intrawog power struggle that the us is seeing an opportunity in, not something the americans or russians conjured up.

 

[mindlessobserver]

egypt is more active in assuring water security since the gerd was built, and will probably try to destroy or cripple the thing completely if it ever gets the opportunity. for that it needs strong regional allies, such as a sudan under burhan's sole rule with the paramilitaries castrated.

This. Its quite possible a Regional War is about to erupt along the Nile and its all the fault of that fucking Dam Ethiopia is building with Chinese money. Now is the time to do it if Egypt wants to really bring down the hammer. The US, Europe and Russia are distracted to hell and back with the Ukraine War. They may see this as an opportunity to just say fuck it and annex the Lower Nile (Sudan) and then "Deal With" that Dam Ethiopia is building. Ethiopia is a hot mess right now, so the geopolitical situation is very favorable if Egypt decides its time to use its Army for something other then target practice for the Israelis.

 

[Sneeter Rabbit]

This. Its quite possible a Regional War is about to erupt along the Nile and its all the fault of that fucking Dam Ethiopia is building with Chinese money.

far as i know abiy ahmed is still in washington's graces and burhan seeks good relations with the southern neighbour. if sudan is seeking american backing, kicking up shit with ethiopia isn't the best way to do it. egypt, for its part, wants to achieve its goals in e. africa formally and unobtrusively through agreements and treaties and other such shite.
i think both ahmed and burhan will be busy pruning their respective gardens for the forseeable, considering that the tplf was never really defeated and that the cleansing of hemedti loyalists from the rsf after its integration will take a good while.
i don't think regional war is likely, but depending on how useful sudan proves itself to be the united states might start to pressure ethiopia into accepting sudanese-egyptian terms on the filling of the gerd resevoir, a subject whose intricacies i know even less about than the one we're currently discussing and so won't make any bold predictions on.

 

[mindlessobserver]

i don't think regional war is likely, but depending on how useful sudan proves itself to be the united states might start to pressure ethiopia into accepting sudanese-egyptian terms on the filling of the gerd resevoir, a subject whose intricacies i know even less about than the one we're currently discussing and so won't make any bold predictions on.

From what I understand the idiotic Nasser Hydroelectric Power Station in Egypt already fucked over the Nile Rivers natural ebbs and flows and is also why Egypt is now totally dependent on grain imports from Ukraine as they essentially killed the breadbasket of the Mediterranean with that boneheaded move. A subsequent population explosion since then means every drop of water that manages to leak past the Dam is now used for human consumption, and very little actually makes it to the delta at this point. The population explosion also means that the Nassar Dam is critical for Egypt's energy security, since all the excess treasure of the State is being sent to Kiev to buy their Grain to then turn around feed to their seething masses at a loss. The Egyptian Government cannot afford to pay the Saudis and Iranians for Gas.

Egypt is a sleeping revanchist state. If the Ethiopian Dam really puts the screws on them they will have no choice but to go on the attack. Not just against Sudan and Ethiopia, but also Libya, in order to secure the two critical fluids of modern society. Water and Oil. Both of Which Egypt lacks through a combination of bad geographical luck and fucking retarded government policies over the past decades.

 

[Sneeter Rabbit]

Egypt is a sleeping revanchist state. If the Ethiopian Dam really puts the screws on them they will have no choice but to go on the attack. Not just against Sudan and Ethiopia, but also Libya, in order to secure the two critical fluids of modern society. Water and Oil. Both of Which Egypt lacks through a combination of bad geographical luck and fucking retarded government policies over the past decades.

this is why they're in sudan backing burhan atm, to try and achieve the latter aim without resort to military force. they continue to support haftar in libya despite turkish military opposition, but didn't actively invade to support him because turkey is an all roung tougher customer than ethiopia. don't know what will happen if kilicdaroglu wins the coming elections in turkey. apparently he has been critical of erdogan's interventionism, so a win for the opposition coalition would mean less turkish involvement in the ongoing libyan conflict and might enable egypt to gain a sort of victory there, likewise without moving troops across the border.
the ideal for them, i suppose, is haftar regaining momentum, sudan falling into their debt through a costly victory and ahmed's ethiopia remaining too fragile to assert itself or even falling into civil war in the near future. in such conditions they could stop worrying about the dam so much and wouldn't even have to forego their warm relations with the west.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

From what I understand the idiotic Nasser Hydroelectric Power Station in Egypt already fucked over the Nile Rivers natural ebbs and flows and is also why Egypt is now totally dependent on grain imports from Ukraine as they essentially killed the breadbasket of the Mediterranean with that boneheaded move. A subsequent population explosion since then means every drop of water that manages to leak past the Dam is now used for human consumption, and very little actually makes it to the delta at this point. The population explosion also means that the Nassar Dam is critical for Egypt's energy security, since all the excess treasure of the State is being sent to Kiev to buy their Grain to then turn around feed to their seething masses at a loss. The Egyptian Government cannot afford to pay the Saudis and Iranians for Gas.

Egypt is a sleeping revanchist state. If the Ethiopian Dam really puts the screws on them they will have no choice but to go on the attack. Not just against Sudan and Ethiopia, but also Libya, in order to secure the two critical fluids of modern society. Water and Oil. Both of Which Egypt lacks through a combination of bad geographical luck and fucking retarded government policies over the past decades.

Not entirely.
Egypt is in the reverse Mexico position. Most stable country along the Nile (That's not hard nor an achievement), but also completely fucked because they use most of the water. They grow a lot of citrus (~60"+ water a per tree a year), mango (~65"* per tree a year) and watermelon (~32" a vine per year) versus wheat (~28" a year). Here's a hint: Stop growing so much fucking citrus for export and you won't be wasting so much water. Oh wait, Egypt owes a fuck ton of money to the IMF.....

I am no hydrologist but other civilizations have controlled floods better without building dams before. I am not sure if this would be possible without extensive cooperation with Sudan and Ethiopia (if at all), they would need to divert water away from the upstream of the Nile river before it enters rather than just storing it. Pretty sure "conserv(ation)tards" would call for the invasion of these countries if they built a irrigation similar larger than the Grand Canal of China.

The bigger two issues are sedimentation and "What the fuck do we do when it needs to be decommissioned?".

The former requires large controlled water releases, which requires upstream nations to be functional so to be able to refill it before next dry season, people to not live next to the riverbank and a competent set of operators. Given the fact Egypt uses the majority of the water it stores immediately for human/food use, not very bright on the prognosis but I'll let to decide on the plausibility of that.

The latter question's answer is somewhere between "beg and get bent over by the 'Jews' (China/Russia/EU/USA)" to "who cares" because they sure as fuck aren't competent enough to build a replacement dam.

I firmly believe that the Malthusian trap is not fertilizer for food production. It is water usage. The day we go over carrying capacity is the day when Indo-Pak war reboots with a nuclear exchange, and multiple US states go after each other and breaks the Union permanently. Looking at you, CA (Every Colorado river dispute ever) and GA (AL, FL, GA Tri-state water dispute over the Burford dam and the TN-GA dispute over the Tennessee river, fuck Atlanta), Florida.

*I think. Not a tropical fruit specialist but I know citrus since it's so valuable.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Egypt is in the reverse Mexico position. Most stable country along the Nile (That's not hard nor an achievement), but also completely fucked because they use most of the water. They grow a lot of citrus (~60"+ water a per tree a year), mango (~65"* per tree a year) and watermelon (~32" a vine per year) versus wheat (~28" a year). Here's a hint: Stop growing so much fucking citrus for export and you won't be wasting so much water. Oh wait, Egypt owes a fuck ton of money to the IMF.....

I just cringed inside. Citrus? REALLY? WHY?

There is a reason Florida is famous for its Citrus. Its a fucking swamp that get hits by Tropical Storms every Tuesday. Their water issues are they have too much god damn water. The only thing that can grow in Florida industrially is Citrus. They grow so much of it Americans view Orange Juice as poor people food.

It really is a tragedy. The Nile River and the Delta is the PERFECT climate for Wheat. Predictable water flows. Suitable dry spells to prevent drowning. Mild temperatures. There is a reason Egypt was a powerhouse for thousands of years. The fact that they have to suck off the Ukrainians for food, and rage at the Abyssinians over water rights should be humiliating to any Egyptian. But this explains everything. Why worry about national power when true power is your personal bank account.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I just cringed inside. Citrus? REALLY? WHY?

There is a reason Florida is famous for its Citrus. Its a fucking swamp that get hits by Tropical Storms every Tuesday. Their water issues are they have too much god damn water. The only thing that can grow in Florida industrially is Citrus. They grow so much of it Americans view Orange Juice as poor people food.

Before I answer the why question, I need to give you some background since this is a really long winded explaination:

Citrus is native to much of the Himalayas, Southern China and Indonesia. They generally are a bit finicky and don't like being water logged, but also require high amounts of heat, sunlight and water...
Most tree crops require high amounts of water. Pecans need 80"+, Almonds ~100", Walnuts 80" etc. At least walnuts, almonds and pecans can be shaken with mechanized devices... Anything that's fleshy needs to be hand harvested 90% of the time. Figs, which are native to Egypt and the Levant, require 80"+ of water on a dry year. However, Modern science is amazing. I could probably grow store grade citrus in North Dakota if there was a market (hint: Shipping is cheaper). You must not forget however, tree nuts/fruits are not staple crops, they were historically a delicacy. The exception to this are some tropical fruits like breadfruit, plantains, palm hearts. They generally don't have watering issues since they are uh, tropical rainforest plants.

The logic of growing citrus in Egypt is not "insane" (to the Ag industry), it is the same reason it is done in California, Arizona, New Mexico etc. It makes "sense" from a large scale agriculture standpoint, since water is cheaper than disease control (pesticides), and higher humidity = more disease because more living things. Egypt fulfills the criteria for citrus growing:

• Large cheap labor pool (in the USA it is illegals)
• Dry environment (low disease pressure)
• Cheap land (Compared to say, France)
• Long growing season (some citrus fruit 2 times a year)
• Subsurface or river water for irrigation

Egypt, also owes a fuck ton of debt and is too unstable for proper industrial base (The West + Zionists have a vested interest in coups in Egypt). So they must export to repay it namely in petroleum (unrefined), table grapes/raisins and citrus. They can't compete with the large scale mechanical agriculture for wheat with Ukraine* because the Egyptians don't have a proper manufacturing base, lack of extensive irrigation systems (still reliant on Nile itself mostly, look at a pop density map of Egypt) and lack of capital for investment.

*Consider that Ukraine has tons of advanced heavy industry like the Mykolaiv Shipyard or Ivchenko-Progress ZMKB after the USSR broke up. Not something built in a year or two, that takes decades to develop and is kinda hard to maintain when a large contingent of your population believes in the sect of Islam which tends to rejects science and think that great prophet Mohamed will guide their missiles (الله أكبر) instead of rigorous application of physics and mathematics, compared to say, Iran.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Its not sustainable though, so rather then force me off my original point its entrenched, Egypt is on the war path willingly or not.

If what you are saying is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, the very treasure of the State is tied up in the citrus exports. Because god knows Egypt has nothing else to export. Those citrus exports are for paying off the IMF and keeping the elites in the state to which they are accustomed. But this requires WATER.

I'm sorry, but Egypt does not support citrus production at the levels required. Iran and India were the historical origins of the fruits, yes, but they were delicacies because they were monsoon dependent. There is only one place on fucking earth where Citrus production is industrial viable and that is the State of Florida, USA. Thanks once again to the Overpowered Stats of North America. The Centrifugal Force of the Atlantic winds insure Florida is always getting a storm at some point to feed citrus crops in a subtropical environment. No rivers required. If anything Florida needs to do aquatic engineering to get rid of water.

Its all about the water and with Ethiopia's government barely clinging to power they are in no position to negotiate internationally. They are gonna throw themselves on the Chinese. Further destabilizing the situation on the Nile. If I was the despot of Egypt right now, I would be very concerned about my ability to simultaneously keep my orange trees alive and my slaves fed and watered. Egypt being reliant on citrus exports makes the nightmare scenario more likely, not less.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

If what you are saying is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, the very treasure of the State is tied up in the citrus exports.

It's mostly petroleum export actually (I don't understand... Not like coal...). But followed closely by agriculture where it is rice, cotton, citrus, grapes (Fresh and raisin, no wine grape because حَرَام) .
Rice kinda okay because there is dry rice, cotton is meh, grapes are meh (raisins... lol) and citrus are a big lol.

Multiple crop failures historically marked the end of an iteration of a nation. Egypt is this taken to the extreme. Not only that, they don't even control the majority of the river drainage basin.

Iran and India were the historical origins of the fruits, yes, but they were delicacies because they were monsoon dependent.

You are partially correct. Citrus is native to China/India/SE Asia (NOT Iran) depending on the type of citrus. Most ones we eat are hybrids. Mandarins (China, Ryukus in Japan), lime (Indonesia), Finger Lime (Australia/PPG) Pumelo (Indochina/Burma), Kumquat (China), Orange (India/Bangladesh).

The taxonomy and genetics for the genus are a complete fucking shitshow because of the sudden spread and evolution of the genus ~4-10 million years ago (relatively new genus). We've been hybridizing them so much with the exception of finger limes that it's really hard to tell the true species types nowdays.

To be frank, modern agriculture is sustainable until the aquifers get depleted. That or we'll be forced to use agricultural runoff water for human consumption. Because my money will be on nobody will have prepared for aquifer depletion since it is a tragedy of the commons scenario. Then the mass starvation begins...

 

[Stoneheart]

I'm sorry, but Egypt does not support citrus production at the levels required. Iran and India were the historical origins of the fruits, yes, but they were delicacies because they were monsoon dependent. There is only one place on fucking earth where Citrus production is industrial viable and that is the State of Florida, USA.

And thats why nobody takes you american for real...
The Us isnt even in the top 5 of citrus producers...

 

[Corpun]

This. Its quite possible a Regional War is about to erupt along the Nile and its all the fault of that fucking Dam Ethiopia is building with Chinese money. Now is the time to do it if Egypt wants to really bring down the hammer. The US, Europe and Russia are distracted to hell and back with the Ukraine War. They may see this as an opportunity to just say fuck it and annex the Lower Nile (Sudan) and then "Deal With" that Dam Ethiopia is building. Ethiopia is a hot mess right now, so the geopolitical situation is very favorable if Egypt decides its time to use its Army for something other then target practice for the Israelis.

Can the Egyptian military even pull a stunt like that?

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

How did the Sudan thread become the Citrus economy watch?

 

[TenMilesWide]

How did the Sudan thread become the Citrus economy watch?

Well when life gives you lemons...

 

[BlancoMailo]

How did the Sudan thread become the Citrus economy watch?

Only natural, considering we're on a fruit farming forum.

 

[mindlessobserver]

And thats why nobody takes you american for real...
The Us isnt even in the top 5 of citrus producers...

Largely due to countries unsuitable for doing it doing it anyway. Like Egypt.

Can the Egyptian military even pull a stunt like that?

On paper? Yes. The Egyptian Army could absolute ruin all its neighbors day except Israel. In practice? Who knows.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Largely due to countries unsuitable for doing it doing it anyway. Like Egypt. On paper? Yes. The Egyptian Army could absolute ruin all its neighbors day except Israel. In practice? Who knows.

Well, Egypt is more suitable than the majority of Asia because of citrus greening...
Hopefully a genetic cure comes out before citrus becomes extinct.

Can the Egyptian military even pull a stunt like that?

The better question is how good is the Ethiopians/Sudan/South Sudan at resisting it? My guess is "Not very".

 

[PyroJohn]

If I'm not mistaken, this war is a proxy war between the United States and Russia according to some posts I saw on 4chan. Also, this war is near the Nile River, which is very important to global trade.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

If I'm not mistaken, this war is a proxy war between the United States and Russia according to some posts I saw on 4chan. Also, this war is near the Nile River, which is very important to global trade.

It's a Proxy between the US-Russia (Egypt - Sudan) and US-China (South Sudan, Tigray - Ethiopia, Etiriea) with your typical African tribal rivalries thrown in.

 

[Ishtar]

Has it been called a civil war yet? Or is it still just a “conflict”?