US Study: What Americans really think - "Self-silencing" — people saying what they think others want to hear rather than what they truly feel — is skewing our understanding of how Americans really feel

"Self-silencing" --- people saying what they think others want to hear rather than what they truly feel --- is skewing our understanding of how Americans really feel about abortion, COVID-19 precautions, what children are taught in school and other hot-button issues, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The best predictor of private behavior is private opinion. People's actual views are far more likely than their stated views to drive consumer and social behavior --- and voting.

• "When we're misreading what we all think, it actually causes false polarization," said Todd Rose, co-founder and president of Populace, the Massachusetts-based firm that undertook the study. "It actually destroys social trust. And it tends to historically make social progress all but impossible."

The big picture: People are often more moderate than they'll readily admit when "being pulled toward a vocal fringe," whether left or right, Rose said.

• But in some cases, he said, people reshape their privately held views to conform to what they think their group believes, even if that assessment is inaccurate.
• The gap between real and stated views can have a generational impact, he said, because media amplifies perceptions that then cue young adults: "This generation's illusions tend to become next generation's private opinion."

How it works: Respondents were provided a mix of traditional polling questions and other questions using a list experiment method, or item-count technique, that provides them with a greater sense of anonymity. This process allows researchers to find the gap between what people say versus how they privately feel.

By the numbers: On abortion, the study found men are much less likely to privately agree with the idea that the choice to have an abortion should be left solely to a woman and her doctor (45%) than would say so publicly (60%).

• Republicans, meanwhile, were less likely to privately say Roe v. Wade should be overturned (51%) than publicly (64%).

On COVID-19, only 44% of women privately feel wearing masks was effective at stopping COVID-19 spread, though 63% felt they should say they did.

An astonishing four times as many Democrats say CEOs should take a public stand on social issues (44%) than actually care (11%).

On education, Americans overall are privately more supportive of parents having more influence over curriculum (60%) than proclaim this publicly (52%).

• That may help explain why GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin's messaging on schools appealed to swing voters in Virginia last year, and why GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) championed "parents' rights" in signing prohibitions on classroom instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity.
• One in three Democrats think parents should have more influence over public school curriculum --- even though only one in four say so publicly. Among independents, 71% agree privately agree, though only 55% say so when asked in a more direct polling format; 85% of Republicans privately feel that way.

Yes, but: Americans are actually less concerned about teachers talking about gender identity or how much public schools focus on racism than they say publicly.

• Only about half of Americans actually think it is inappropriate for schools to discuss gender identity in kindergarten through 3rd grade, compared to the 63% who say so publicly.
• This misconception is particularly stark among independents. Just 42% privately have an issue with discussions about gender identity in K-3rd, despite 67% saying they take an issue with it publicly.
• Even though 63% of Republicans privately said they believed racism was too much of a focus in public schools --- far more than Democrats or independents--- the number is a lot lower than the 80% who felt compelled to say so publicly.

The intrigue: The study found the biggest disparities among latinx respondents and political independents. On 14 out of 25 topics, these groups had double-digit gaps between what they say and believe.

Methodology: The survey was conducted for Populace by YouGov between May 23-June 8, 2022 among 3,334 respondents. The respondents were provided a mix of traditional polling questions and other questions using a list experiment method, which guarantees privacy.

• These kind of results do not have the same MOE measurements as traditional public opinion polling
• In the list experiment survey, respondents are never asked to directly share their opinion. Instead, they read a list of statements and choose the number with which they agree.
• By comparing a group of people who see a list that includes the sensitive statement to a group who sees a list without it, inferences can be made about the prevalence of that private opinion in the population.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/17/americans-voters-private-belief-poll-abortion-education-covid-19 (Archive)

 

[Otterly]

Why is the school racism result the opposite direction of all the others?

It’s a poorly phrased and leading question that’s very easy to interpret as the opposite of what it’s asking.
So is the gender one - it’s phrased in negatives linked together. That’s poor polling. Or maybe good polling if you want to spin it.
The difference between ‘should schools teach sexually explicit topics to pre K children’ and ‘is the focus on gender identity in schools inappropriate’ is large. People may see the gender identity thing and mark disagree because they disagree with the concept but the negative makes them misinterpret.

 

[Sugriva]

Who radicalized me? You did.

 

[Shroom King]

Why it matters: The best predictor of private behavior is private opinion. People's actual views are far more likely than their stated views to drive consumer and social behavior --- and voting.

I like the "and voting" part.

"OMG, if we let people think for themselves, they might put a stop to us filling up their country with millions of unemployable idiots!"

 

[queue-anon]

I'm confused about some of these results. How are more people publicly agreeing that racism is taught too much when that's the "naughty" opinion? Same with gender identity. The "wrong" opinion is that gender nonsense is inappropriate for kids.

Although it figures that Republicans are more honest about their opinions on gender identity. They know it's wrong and aren't afraid to say so.

 

[liquid nitrogen]

I'm confused about some of these results. How are more people publicly agreeing that racism is taught too much when that's the "naughty" opinion? Same with gender identity. The "wrong" opinion is that gender nonsense is inappropriate for kids.

Although it figures that Republicans are more honest about their opinions on gender identity. They know it's wrong and aren't afraid to say so.
View attachment 3616129

okay what's going on with the asians?

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

okay what's going on with the asians?

Might be immigrants, whom are most likely to be working class and not plugged into the Education system.

 

[HarblMcDavid]

Is it just me or is the article's graph all the respondent's answers regardless of demographic, averaged together?

It's strange because you look at the graph and you think "those numbers seem off" and then the article mentions that they did comparisons based on demographic information which are wildly different from the graph presented.

 

[queue-anon]

Might be immigrants, whom are most likely to be working class and not plugged into the Education system.

But they're hiding their real opinion, that gender identity shouldn't be taught to kids.

Asians in the U.S. tend to have the most cathedral-approved opinions since they're well educated and upwardly striving. So, a pretty large percentage of Asians lie about thinking gender identity is appropriate for kids, most likely because they know their white colleagues will lose their minds if they expressed their real opinion about it.

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

But they're hiding their real opinion, that gender identity shouldn't be taught to kids.

Asians in the U.S. tend to have the most cathedral-approved opinions since they're well educated and upwardly striving. So, a pretty large percentage of Asians lie about thinking gender identity is appropriate for kids, most likely because they know their white colleagues will lose their minds if they expressed their real opinion about it.

In my experience, there's a world of difference between immigrants and first generation Asians. First Generation is as you describe, but fresh off the boat? No, those people are more like "This is Library" guy and keep to themselves or the older people that get beaten by niggers.

 

[wyattamurcan]

It wasn't just rape, it was anal rape, which is a clear sign that the 15 year old troon who did it is a porn addict.

Oh and after that he made her clean her shit off his dick with her mouth which in my opinion completely discredits his moms argument that they were in a "relationship". Any man who actually cares about a woman is not going to make her eat shit, especially in a bathroom where there is water soap and towels two feet away.

If I was that father, I'd be in prison right now because I'd have found that little porn-addicted faggot, beat him to death and then gone to town on everyone at that school board that covered up for the troon. I'm dead serious & that's why I am glad that I have no kids, because if someone ever enabled anyone, let alone a troon faggot, to do that to my daughter... I'd make cannibal corpse cover art out of the entire school board.

 

[pikachudidnothingwrong]

Fear of getting ruined and losing family and friends tends to do that.. Now just imagine what it's like in places like europe where the wrong opinions can get you in serious legal trouble and most political parties won't even touch certain issues. (and refuse to work with ones that will)