Don't forget all the money earned that they have to give to Disney, especially since they probably wouldn't have poured much money besides negotiating the rights and marketing.
Disney's cut is
precisely why it's borderline impossible for them to turn a profit. So, the development budget for wolverine is already in excess of $300 million. "Budget" however does not mean "we spent exactly X amount on this", it means "we set aside X amount of money at the start of the project, which we
think it will cost somewhere in the ballpark of when all's said and done". Delays, rewrites, reshoots (you know, like what might happen after a giant leak) all tend to drive costs higher than what the budget actually was. However, let's be as generous possible to them, and assume a little over $300 million is what they spent on marketing, and let's assume a rather small relative marketing budget too, somewhere around or a little above $110 million, giving us a total cost for wolverine of $420 million.
If sony sold every single copy digitally, and didn't have to pay a retailer cut since they're the retailer, at this budget, they would break even at 6 million copies. However, when you factor in disney's cut, it jumps up to
at least 8 million (iirc, the cut differs slightly between regions). The big kicker though, bundles. Every copy of a marvel game bundled for free with a ps5 would normally be $0 in revenue. However, there's a clause in the contract with disney (we know all this thanks to the fuckhuge insomniac leak from a few months back) that seems to mostly be so sony can't screw disney and sell 10 million bundled copies of a marvel game and then tell disney "thanks for helping us sell 10 million ps5s, but since we didn't make any money on the game, you don't get any either!" where sony pays disney a cut of the
console's wholesale price to disney for any marvel bundle. For spiderman, they had to sell 2-3 copies at full price to dig themselves out of the hole each bundle put them in. Given the price has jumped on the ps5? Every bundle with wolverine likely eats away at the revenue of around 3-4 copies sold at full price.
Think of it this way, for every million copies of wolverine bundled, that 8 million break even, assuming the lowest budget possible, gets further away by 4-5 million (the bundled copy, plus the additional copies that need to be sold to dig themselves out of the hole disney's cut puts them in).