Severe Weather outbreaks

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Preemptive RIP to the little hut on the Flatbridge :( Water is looking choppy af now, West Parade camera, trees and powerlines shaking violently. Poor stray doggys walking around. :(
 
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Always bet on the frog! Two banger drops right in the wall, which confirm an average of ~185mph. They're swinging around for the second leg of the figure 4.

ETA: Kermit is reporting an absolute low of 890mb
image0-144.jpg
 
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Melissa has strengthened since the last advisory. The central pressure inside the 15 n mi wide eye has fallen to near 892 mb, and the NOAA aircraft reported flight-level winds of 172 kt
at 700 mb. Based on these data, the the initial intensity has been increased to 160 kt.

The initial motion is now 025/8. This general motion should continue with some increase in forward speed, with the center making landfall in Jamaica in a couple of hours and reaching eastern Cuba late tonight or early Wednesday. After that, a faster motion toward the northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday night. After passing Bermuda the cyclone should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 36 h and a little north of the previous track after that time.

Melissa should weaken over Jamaica as the inner core gets disrupted by the mountainous terrain. However, the cyclone should maintain major hurricane status until the center reaches eastern Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause steady weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Catastrophic winds with total structural failure are liklely near the path of Melissa’s center. Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds are expected across the remainder of the island causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are expected soon. Life threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 77.9W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.0N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 26.6N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 30.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 35.9N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.9N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 52.8N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

AMHOLIO said:
Jamaica has the Blue Mountains which can take a tiny bit of wind out of the hurricane's sails depending on how it hits.
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Uhh…
The Blue Mountains rise to their summits from the coastal plain in the space of about 16 kilometres (9.9 mi), thus producing one of the steepest general gradients in the world. This provides cooling relief from the sweltering heat of the city of Kingston, visible below. Their summits rise and fall for 38.62 kilometres (24.00 mi) and span 22.53 kilometres (14.00 mi) at their widest point. The temperature decreases from around 27 °C (80 °F) at sea level to 5 °C (40 °F) at the Blue Mountain Peak, just 16 km (9.9 mi) inland.
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The mud flows are about to be biblical.
 
Lian Xing said:
Uhh…
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No, it's going to rearrange Jamaica's landscape like someone having a meth fueled freak out trashes a room, but it might be downgraded from 5 to 4 depending on the mountainside.

Lian Xing said:
Melissa should weaken over Jamaica as the inner core gets disrupted by the mountainous terrain. However, the cyclone should maintain major hurricane status until the center reaches eastern Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause steady weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.
Click to expand...
If Cuba is lucky, 3. But I'm hedging my bets. Cuba itself sometimes saves Floridian ass by having mountains and taking the brunt of a hurricane before it makes landfall by tearing down parts of the walls. Harder to keep organized when wind can't blow as well.
 
At least it's hitting the more sparsely populated west side. The east side it just looks like a windy day, everyone is still out and about in Kingston. It's going to decimate the coffee plantations though. That's a big part of their economy.
 
Went over to 4chan to see what they were doing with the storm coverage.

Reporting back, /pol/ wishes to inform the world that TND is in progress, and that on the Treasure Beach stream, Pole-kun is fucking Melissa in her Hurricussy.
 
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