- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Apparently this system forming today
is going to rock the pants off the east coast. Already forming over Georgia and Alabama
is going to rock the pants off the east coast. Already forming over Georgia and Alabama
Severe Weather outbreaks
- Thread starter Meat Target
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- Joined
- Jan 13, 2025
Last night tornado sirens were going off for an hour and a half before we got the alert that we needed to immediately seek shelter. Nothing came of it for us luckily, but 12 minutes away where some family lives there’s what was suspected to be an F0 tornado that damaged multiple buildings and caused an old barn to completely collapse, knocked down power lines, etc
It was about 2 or 3 miles up the road from where they live, thankfully other than some strong winds and heavy rain all they have is some flooded ditches.
Wednesday is supposed to be another hairy situation as well, I hope all of my fellow kiwis that are in the line of these storms are safe. This is looking to be an interesting year for weather
It was about 2 or 3 miles up the road from where they live, thankfully other than some strong winds and heavy rain all they have is some flooded ditches.
Wednesday is supposed to be another hairy situation as well, I hope all of my fellow kiwis that are in the line of these storms are safe. This is looking to be an interesting year for weather
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2023
Northern California is getting pelted with snow.
Happy spring, everyone!
(P.S. Stay safe Kiwi frens in tornado country.)
Happy spring, everyone!
(P.S. Stay safe Kiwi frens in tornado country.)
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2022
hopefully the rain is putting out the fires in the Carolinas.
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2025
Wanted to make an update to my own post, it’s been confirmed that it was actually an EF-1 tornado that touched down where I was talking about. I’m just so relieved no one was hurt
This is a rural area with a fair amount of farmland so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised but it’s still extremely scary. Can’t think of the last time a true tornado touched down anywhere near here
This is a rural area with a fair amount of farmland so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised but it’s still extremely scary. Can’t think of the last time a true tornado touched down anywhere near here
- Joined
- May 9, 2017
You know what they say about March. In like a lion, out like an even bigger, angrier lion.
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Enhanced risk for today in Oklahoma and Kansas, with all hazards possible.
If I were the SPC, I'd put a moderate risk for tornadoes in central Oklahoma. A few intense tornadoes may be possible, with models being scarily consistent on showing a powerful tornadic supercell or two striking the OKC metro.
There's also a tornado-driven Moderate risk for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana, with a much larger enhanced risk around it.
Very impressive setup with the potential for a major tornado outbreak if storms remain discrete enough.
The severe weather threat should continue for the next few days in the deep south before we get a few days without much severe weather.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2024
Hello, tornado driven high risk, along with the explicit mentioning of "multiple long-track EF3+ tornadoes".
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Was not expecting that when waking up.
Updated 1300z Day 1 outlook. Narrow but large High Risk area, surprisingly Broyles isn't involved with this one.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys westward into the eastern
Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
tornadoes appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind gusts,
and large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys/Eastern Ozarks...
A potent mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, as a mid-level jet strengthens to over 120 knots, and
ejects rapidly northeastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
a low will move into the upper Mississippi Valley, as a cold front
advances eastward through the central states. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks and lower to mid
Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid
to upper 60s F. While storms will likely be ongoing near the front
during the day, the airmass further to the east is forecast to
remain undisturbed and will significantly destabilize during the
day. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across much of the moist airmass. The
500 mb jet is forecast to eject northeastward at nearly 55 knots
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated
with the right entrance region of the jet will overspread the moist
sector, becoming favorable for vigorous convective development.
Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, that scattered
discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of
the front near the instability axis during the mid to late
afternoon. Forecast soundings across the mid Mississippi Valley from
21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 400
m2/s2, and have strong deep-layer shear near 60 knots. This will be
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The ECMWF and NAM are in
good agreement, developing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet max
centered over far western Tennessee at 00Z. As supercells move
eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be
favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic
supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes.
Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid Mississippi Valley.
The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon
into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will
extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into
the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense
discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes.
In addition to the tornado threat, supercells associated with large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected to form in the mid to late
afternoon across a large area from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to
the southern Great Lakes. Large hail will also be possible with
supercells that develop along and near the front, further west into
the Ozarks. The more intense supercells should have potential to
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. During the mid
to late evening and overnight period, several organized line
segments are expected to organize and move eastward into the
Tennessee Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Gusts
above 70 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing segments.
The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.
...North Texas...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central Plains
this morning. At the surface, as a cold front will advance eastward
through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place over much of the eastern half of
Texas. In spite of weak forcing, isolated thunderstorms may initiate
along or ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm this
morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the front in north Texas have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will likely support a large hail threat with
any supercells that can develop. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more
vigorous supercell downdrafts. The severe threat is expected to
gradually end during the day across parts of northwest and
north-central Texas as the front moves eastward. However, isolated
supercells with large hail could redevelop during the evening and
overnight, as warm advection again brings low-level moisture
northward into the Red River Valley.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 04/02/2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys westward into the eastern
Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
tornadoes appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind gusts,
and large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys/Eastern Ozarks...
A potent mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, as a mid-level jet strengthens to over 120 knots, and
ejects rapidly northeastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
a low will move into the upper Mississippi Valley, as a cold front
advances eastward through the central states. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks and lower to mid
Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid
to upper 60s F. While storms will likely be ongoing near the front
during the day, the airmass further to the east is forecast to
remain undisturbed and will significantly destabilize during the
day. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across much of the moist airmass. The
500 mb jet is forecast to eject northeastward at nearly 55 knots
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated
with the right entrance region of the jet will overspread the moist
sector, becoming favorable for vigorous convective development.
Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, that scattered
discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of
the front near the instability axis during the mid to late
afternoon. Forecast soundings across the mid Mississippi Valley from
21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 400
m2/s2, and have strong deep-layer shear near 60 knots. This will be
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The ECMWF and NAM are in
good agreement, developing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet max
centered over far western Tennessee at 00Z. As supercells move
eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be
favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic
supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes.
Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid Mississippi Valley.
The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon
into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will
extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into
the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense
discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes.
In addition to the tornado threat, supercells associated with large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected to form in the mid to late
afternoon across a large area from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to
the southern Great Lakes. Large hail will also be possible with
supercells that develop along and near the front, further west into
the Ozarks. The more intense supercells should have potential to
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. During the mid
to late evening and overnight period, several organized line
segments are expected to organize and move eastward into the
Tennessee Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Gusts
above 70 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing segments.
The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.
...North Texas...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central Plains
this morning. At the surface, as a cold front will advance eastward
through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place over much of the eastern half of
Texas. In spite of weak forcing, isolated thunderstorms may initiate
along or ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm this
morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the front in north Texas have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will likely support a large hail threat with
any supercells that can develop. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more
vigorous supercell downdrafts. The severe threat is expected to
gradually end during the day across parts of northwest and
north-central Texas as the front moves eastward. However, isolated
supercells with large hail could redevelop during the evening and
overnight, as warm advection again brings low-level moisture
northward into the Red River Valley.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 04/02/2025
Updated 1300z Day 1 outlook. Narrow but large High Risk area, surprisingly Broyles isn't involved with this one.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley.
Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear
likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and
large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area
from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level trough with associated 100-120 kt mid-level
jet streak will advance quickly northeastward today across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. A broader area of 50-70+ kt southwesterly
mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains into
the lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley. At the surface, the primary
low over far eastern NE/western IA this morning is forecast to
develop northeastward in tandem with the upper trough today,
eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by this evening. A trailing
cold front will continue east-southeastward across the southern
Plains and Ozarks today, before eventually stalling and lifting
northward as a warm front tonight. Weak secondary surface low
development is possible this afternoon and evening along or just
ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South.
...Ozarks into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and Southern Great Lakes...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from northern MO
southwestward to southern OK and north TX along/near the cold front.
Even with some capping concerns noted on area soundings ahead of
this activity, a very strong (60-70 kt) southerly low-level jet is
providing ample low-level moisture transport to support continued
convective intensity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear are also fostering some embedded supercell
structures, with associated large hail threat. Otherwise, given the
strength of the low-level flow and very strong effective SRH,
scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
primary threats with this line of convection as it continues
eastward this morning across the remainder of OK into AR and MO. A
strong tornado may occur with any sustained surface-based supercell.
The effect that this morning convection has on downstream afternoon
severe potential across the lower/mid MS Valley may be substantial.
Most guidance shows either a gradual weakening trend with the line
by late morning/early afternoon, or a devolution into a broken line
of supercells. Mid/high-level cloud debris could inhibit daytime
heating to some extent across much of the warm sector, and the
northern extent of the weakening line over northern MO may serve as
a cutoff for surface-based thunderstorms across the Midwest and OH
Valley later today. Even with these continued uncertainties, it
appears likely that a corridor of moderate to strong instability
will develop this afternoon across the lower MS Valley into the
Mid-South and lower OH Valley, generally ahead of whatever remains
of the ongoing/morning convection. With more nebulous/weaker
large-scale ascent over these regions given their spatial
displacement from the ejecting upper trough, there may be a more
mixed/supercell mode this afternoon/evening, particularly with
southward extent.
Current expectations are for several intense supercells and clusters
to develop by 20-00Z from far northern LA into eastern AR, northwest
MS, western TN/KY, and southeast MO, and southern IL/IN. This region
appears to have the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong
instability, strong deep-layer shear, and ample low-level shear to
support multiple tornadic storms. With most guidance showing
enlarged, curved hodographs through the boundary layer, and
effective SRH forecast to generally range 250-400+ m2/s2, several
strong tornadoes are likely. Multiple EF-3+ tornadoes should also
occur given the very favorable parameter space forecast, but this
high-end tornado potential may be dependent on a relative lack of
supercell/cluster interactions, which are difficult to pinpoint.
Still, based on latest high-resolution guidance trends showing
multiple intense supercells developing, the High Risk has been
expanded a bit southward with this update to include more of eastern
and south-central AR. The tornado and severe/damaging wind threat
will likely continue after dark, with updraft interactions
suggesting a messy mode, with clusters/lines and embedded supercells
all possible.
In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to
2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur
with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears
more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the
southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today.
But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the
ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern
extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the
Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the
Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells
ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest.
But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to
expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and
western OH.
...Southern Plains...
With the cold front expected to stall and eventually begin lifting
northward tonight, additional supercells may develop late in tandem
with ascent preceding another shortwave trough and a strengthening
southerly low-level jet. With steep mid-level lapse rates present
and ample MUCAPE and deep-layer shear, this convection should pose a
threat for mainly large to very large hail.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/02/2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley.
Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear
likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and
large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area
from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level trough with associated 100-120 kt mid-level
jet streak will advance quickly northeastward today across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. A broader area of 50-70+ kt southwesterly
mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains into
the lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley. At the surface, the primary
low over far eastern NE/western IA this morning is forecast to
develop northeastward in tandem with the upper trough today,
eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by this evening. A trailing
cold front will continue east-southeastward across the southern
Plains and Ozarks today, before eventually stalling and lifting
northward as a warm front tonight. Weak secondary surface low
development is possible this afternoon and evening along or just
ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South.
...Ozarks into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and Southern Great Lakes...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from northern MO
southwestward to southern OK and north TX along/near the cold front.
Even with some capping concerns noted on area soundings ahead of
this activity, a very strong (60-70 kt) southerly low-level jet is
providing ample low-level moisture transport to support continued
convective intensity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear are also fostering some embedded supercell
structures, with associated large hail threat. Otherwise, given the
strength of the low-level flow and very strong effective SRH,
scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
primary threats with this line of convection as it continues
eastward this morning across the remainder of OK into AR and MO. A
strong tornado may occur with any sustained surface-based supercell.
The effect that this morning convection has on downstream afternoon
severe potential across the lower/mid MS Valley may be substantial.
Most guidance shows either a gradual weakening trend with the line
by late morning/early afternoon, or a devolution into a broken line
of supercells. Mid/high-level cloud debris could inhibit daytime
heating to some extent across much of the warm sector, and the
northern extent of the weakening line over northern MO may serve as
a cutoff for surface-based thunderstorms across the Midwest and OH
Valley later today. Even with these continued uncertainties, it
appears likely that a corridor of moderate to strong instability
will develop this afternoon across the lower MS Valley into the
Mid-South and lower OH Valley, generally ahead of whatever remains
of the ongoing/morning convection. With more nebulous/weaker
large-scale ascent over these regions given their spatial
displacement from the ejecting upper trough, there may be a more
mixed/supercell mode this afternoon/evening, particularly with
southward extent.
Current expectations are for several intense supercells and clusters
to develop by 20-00Z from far northern LA into eastern AR, northwest
MS, western TN/KY, and southeast MO, and southern IL/IN. This region
appears to have the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong
instability, strong deep-layer shear, and ample low-level shear to
support multiple tornadic storms. With most guidance showing
enlarged, curved hodographs through the boundary layer, and
effective SRH forecast to generally range 250-400+ m2/s2, several
strong tornadoes are likely. Multiple EF-3+ tornadoes should also
occur given the very favorable parameter space forecast, but this
high-end tornado potential may be dependent on a relative lack of
supercell/cluster interactions, which are difficult to pinpoint.
Still, based on latest high-resolution guidance trends showing
multiple intense supercells developing, the High Risk has been
expanded a bit southward with this update to include more of eastern
and south-central AR. The tornado and severe/damaging wind threat
will likely continue after dark, with updraft interactions
suggesting a messy mode, with clusters/lines and embedded supercells
all possible.
In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to
2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur
with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears
more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the
southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today.
But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the
ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern
extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the
Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the
Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells
ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest.
But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to
expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and
western OH.
...Southern Plains...
With the cold front expected to stall and eventually begin lifting
northward tonight, additional supercells may develop late in tandem
with ascent preceding another shortwave trough and a strengthening
southerly low-level jet. With steep mid-level lapse rates present
and ample MUCAPE and deep-layer shear, this convection should pose a
threat for mainly large to very large hail.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/02/2025
Last edited by a moderator:
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2022
I'm surprised Utah is even in a risk area, we never get tornadoes
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
That's a general thunderstorm risk. It just means a small chance for regular thunderstorms.
Doesn't mean a tornado is impossible, even Idaho got one yesterday.
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2019
Oh man that part of Kentucky got hit pretty hard by a tornado like a year or two ago. The jews are really pissed at middle America huh
Matzo Nazi
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2022
Just shoot the tornado as it gets close, castle doctrine applies to the wind too.
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2025
In honor of all this activity I’m going to watch the Texas City Twister episode of King of the Hill, honestly one of the shows best
The clip of Bobby throwing the egg only for it to fly back and crack in his face still leaves me cackling lol
The clip of Bobby throwing the egg only for it to fly back and crack in his face still leaves me cackling lol
Aib Ld
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2017
Happy spring!
Though, this nonstop hitting should be happening in May, the peak of weather like this. But Mother Nature does what she wants.
America is a big place so chances of getting directly hit is low, but still can't comprehend living in tornado-prone areas without a basement or tornado shelter.
Edit:
Tornadoes can indeed travel up and down mountains.
Though, this nonstop hitting should be happening in May, the peak of weather like this. But Mother Nature does what she wants.
America is a big place so chances of getting directly hit is low, but still can't comprehend living in tornado-prone areas without a basement or tornado shelter.
Edit:
California got a tornado warning too, despite people thinking the mountains can protect them.
Tornadoes can indeed travel up and down mountains.
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
Something of an adjustment at 12Z - the pattern shifts back west, and the 30% area shrinks, but the 15% area expands well into Illinois and Indiana.
EDIT: The 14Z, which is run on a different model with a larger number of input models, shows a drastically different picture, with two nodes of activity expected in AR and IL.
EDIT: The 14Z, which is run on a different model with a larger number of input models, shows a drastically different picture, with two nodes of activity expected in AR and IL.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Apr 20, 2021
I'm in the scary color of this map and my neighbor is piling unwanted furniture and cabinets on the adjacent curbside that definitely won't get picked up in time. Please pray.