Yup, Friday and Saturday [and to some extent Sunday] are looking pretty froggy.
For Friday, March 14th:
Overall risk for Friday.
Tornado probability for Friday.
Damaging wind probability for Friday.
And for Saturday, March 15th:
Overall risk for Sat.
Probabilistic risk for Sat.
Sunday, Mar 16th, too far out to really predict yet but it might do something.
Hopefully it ends up in a QLCS form rather than allowing discrete supercells to form because from what I've read all of the ingredients for tornadoes are present both days in large amounts. QLCS/squall lines sometimes produce little spin-up tornadoes but not typically anything too long-lasting or violent. Friday looks particularly likely to be derecho-y. Quite a few things could make either day a bust, like if some random pop up storms along the front sap some of the energy out of the air.
Again of course people are comparing it to the 2011 Super Outbreak which is fucking dumb, that was a once in a lifetime event. If you were alive and old enough to remember it clearly, you will likely not see another outbreak like that in your life. That was genuinely like playing GTA and putting in all of the most chaotic cheats at once, that's how primed the atmosphere was to fuck up Alabama. My rule of thumb is if James Spann is telling people to look out, it probably means business. The SPC doesn't hand out moderate risks very often and that 45% hashed area in the south is pretty rare to see too.
Hopefully it busts, this is that time of year where people get all excited about warmer weather but when it gets this warm that quickly in early March, it usually portends something ugly because there's so much moisture to work with.
