Severe Weather outbreaks

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anliteralidiot said:
Is hurricane season projected to be bad?
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Yes, it's expected to be really really bad.
Anyways, uh...
...I have no words about tomorrow. We might have one of, if not the worst outbreak in modern Oklahoma history, without exaggeration.
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Keep in mind, this is the fucking environment they're moving into:
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We are fucked.
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Even a forecaster at the SPC is mortified.
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He also thinks that multiple rounds of supercells will fire, and the HRRR is currently only showing one round.
...what the fuck are we going to see tomorrow?
 
Some seriously apocalyptic shit from what the data shows.
 
#FF0000 said:
Yes, it's expected to be really really bad.
Anyways, uh...
...I have no words about tomorrow. We might have one of, if not the worst outbreak in modern Oklahoma history, without exaggeration.
View attachment 6019526
Keep in mind, this is the fucking environment they're moving into:
View attachment 6019528
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Wow...first one that comes to mind looking at that sounding is Moore in 2013 but worse. That holograph is even more cyclonic than Moore's.
 
Hopefully if it follows trends of this year it'll be a bust. Remember the other week where a cap kept in place and stopped the worst of it?
 
A_Skellington said:
Hopefully if it follows trends of this year it'll be a bust. Remember the other week where a cap kept in place and stopped the worst of it?
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A cap certainly exists, but with this type of forcing, I think it'll genuinely just make things worse and keep storms discrete. The only question now is moisture, since models are somewhat inconsistent with it, but that's probably not gonna be an issue at all.
 
#FF0000 said:
This day is gonna be historic. Trust me.
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Keep in mind, violent means EF4 or EF5 and the NWS very rarely uses that language, even on High Risk days.
They've also only issued one Day 2 High Risk ever, and they considered one today.
In other news... the tornado from yesterday in Texas caused what I can only describe as similar to Jarrell.
View attachment 6019149
View attachment 6019150
Not a single mesquite tree left with any bark, not a single blade of grass remaining, not a single bush remaining.
Complete and utter annihilation of mesquite trees (which are INCREDIBLY resilient) and low-lying vegetation, with extreme ground scouring only comparable to some of the most violent EF5s. Thank god it didn't hit structures.
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Patch of grass completely stripped to rock was something I have never seen before. I gotta say, thankfully it never touched any structures, if it did, the damage would be extremely devastating.
 
I'm usually pretty slow to start sounding the alarm bells but if everything holds tomorrow doesn't look like a fun day to be an Oklahoman, not that I'm sure there is a particularly fun day to be in Oklahoma.

Anyone wanna take bets on whether some storm chasers get themselves killed tomorrow? They've been doing some pretty stupid shit as of late and the big intercept roads look like a fucking parking lot half the time. Even Reed Timmer has been doing some boneheaded shit recently.
 
Green Man said:
Anyone wanna take bets on whether some storm chasers get themselves killed tomorrow?
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If reed doesn't fix his deployment system he's sure as hell gonna die someday soon.
Dunno about any others but I know there was this one tranny goth storm chaser who got into several accidents a few years ago, if they were chasing I wouldn't be surprised to see that too.
 
Green Man said:
I'm usually pretty slow to start sounding the alarm bells but if everything holds tomorrow doesn't look like a fun day to be an Oklahoman, not that I'm sure there is a particularly fun day to be in Oklahoma.

Anyone wanna take bets on whether some storm chasers get themselves killed tomorrow? They've been doing some pretty stupid shit as of late and the big intercept roads look like a fucking parking lot half the time. Even Reed Timmer has been doing some boneheaded shit recently.
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I live here. Chaser convergence has been a huge issue. Honestly I wish most of them would stay away especially from the OKC metro because we have enough retarded drivers as it is. Nobody learned a damn thing from 2013 though so I expect to see more of the same.

With this particular setup the caveats will be moisture return and cap strength.
 
Cat Menagerie said:
I live here. Chaser convergence has been a huge issue. Honestly I wish most of them would stay away especially from the OKC metro because we have enough retarded drivers as it is. Nobody learned a damn thing from 2013 though so I expect to see more of the same.

With this particular setup the caveats will be moisture return and cap strength.
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Moisture return isn't so much the issue, the issue is how high the temps will be.
Too much spread in dewpoints and temps at the surface will make storm development and organization very difficult, and you'd need dewpoints in the mid to high 70s to compensate for low 90s temps, which is what's possible here.
There's also some possible issues with forcing but not so much the cap.
However...
1716655295006.png

If storms form, all hell will break loose.
 
Green Man said:
I'm usually pretty slow to start sounding the alarm bells but if everything holds tomorrow doesn't look like a fun day to be an Oklahoman, not that I'm sure there is a particularly fun day to be in Oklahoma.
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There is never a single day where it is fun to be in Oklahoma.

idk how or why people willingly live there, just from the weather. I was born and raised there and got the hell out, went through a few tornadoes too many (honestly going through one is too many, but). It is even more baffling to me that, after everything, tornado shelters are still not mandatory.

Hope any Oklahomies ITT stay safe today/tonight, especially any OKC folk.
 
Today's forecast is becoming a genuine headache, my god.
Models are just completely wrong. Dewpoints are 2-5F higher than models are showing, and models are still lagging behind.
A few storms initiated in south and central Texas that not a single model was showing.
Models have been all over the place, I have no idea what's going on. The only thing we know is that, later tonight, any storm that forms in OK will likely become tornadic and produce a strong to violent, long-tracked tornado.
 
Fatniggo1488 said:
Tornado happened in tornado alley. Time to watch mutts worship harder at the envirocult shrine.
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I've said it before in this thread, all the hysterical faggots that pop up on tornado videos or discussion/comments on disasters piss me off so much. I honestly think there are people walking the Earth that think severe weather never existed before the steam engine.
 
...well that was a nothingburger.
We went from too little storms forecasted to so many storms too early that it just killed the environment for storms.
I swear to god models have become so shit recently. Not a single one showed any storms anywhere close to when they did.
 
#FF0000 said:
...well that was a nothingburger.
We went from too little storms forecasted to so many storms too early that it just killed the environment for storms.
I swear to god models have become so shit recently. Not a single one showed any storms anywhere close to when they did.
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The good news, genuinely, is that your batting average in this thread regarding Sharknado 6: Everyone is Going to Die is through the floor so far. :story:
 
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