Severe Weather outbreaks

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TheBigZee said:
My local news meteorologist has been repeating how rare it is to see an enhanced risk four-five days out.

Is the caution solely because of the models? It being a holiday weekend, a lot of people could get caught out in severe weather.
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Models can often get things wrong even a few days out, and we're waiting on specific details to see if there's something that may limit the risk that we're not seeing at the moment, or if model outcomes change.
 
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The Greenfield tornado has been preliminarily rated an EF4 with winds between 175 and 185 mph, which would likely make it the strongest tornado this year.
Keep in mind this is still preliminary. Rolling Fork was a preliminary EF4 with winds of 170 mph for several months before the survey was finally complete and upgraded to an EF4 with winds of 195 mph.
 
VIOLENT and slow-moving tornado ongoing in west Oklahoma, near Altus. DOW appears to have recorded EF5 windspeeds (65 m/s inbound, 50 m/s outbound, 115 m/s total) from my analysis, although take it with a grain of salt because it's raw data, and it may be calculated differently.
Mesquite trees have been apparently completely shredded by the tornado, which is very impressive. I have no pics as of right now though, but we may see them later.

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reptile baht spaniard rid said:
What do those mean?
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CAPE means Convective Available Potential Energy, and represents instability in the atmosphere, which acts as fuel for storms. SRH means Storm Relative Helicity, and it measures the spin in the atmosphere. 500 is a shit ton, and models are now showing nearly 600.
 
1Tonka_Truck said:
With the way the intact limbs look and the little bits of bark on the trunk, I think that was a sycamore tree. They have mottled bark which is white and smooth on the upper 60%+.
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That makes more sense with the branches and remaining leaves on the one side. That says EF3/EF4 probably EF4 since it's such a mature tree, but I still struggle with that classification for the tornado overall seeing what happened to those anchor bolts.
 
Agamemnon Busmalis said:
That makes more sense with the branches and remaining leaves on the one side. That says EF3/EF4 probably EF4 since it's such a mature tree, but I still struggle with that classification for the tornado overall seeing what happened to those anchor bolts.
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There’s some substantial rust on some of those bolts so we can’t discount that they were already damaged/bent for some reason before.
 
#FF0000 said:
VIOLENT and slow-moving tornado ongoing in west Oklahoma, near Altus. DOW appears to have recorded EF5 windspeeds (65 m/s inbound, 50 m/s outbound, 115 m/s total) from my analysis, although take it with a grain of salt because it's raw data, and it may be calculated differently.
Mesquite trees have been apparently completely shredded by the tornado, which is very impressive. I have no pics as of right now though, but we may see them later.
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The footage from right before atlus was downright biblical .

 
Return of the Freaker said:
Tomorrow's looking increasingly active

View attachment 6018568
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This day is gonna be historic. Trust me.
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Keep in mind, violent means EF4 or EF5 and the NWS very rarely uses that language, even on High Risk days.
They've also only issued one Day 2 High Risk ever, and they considered one today.
In other news... the tornado from yesterday in Texas caused what I can only describe as similar to Jarrell.
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Not a single mesquite tree left with any bark, not a single blade of grass remaining, not a single bush remaining.
Complete and utter annihilation of mesquite trees (which are INCREDIBLY resilient) and low-lying vegetation, with extreme ground scouring only comparable to some of the most violent EF5s. Thank god it didn't hit structures.
 
#FF0000 said:
The ground itself was ripped out and destroyed too. Absolutely mental.
I'd be kinda surprised (but also not really) if this wasn't rated an EF4.
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I have just enough autism to be interested in these storms, and know what these ratings mean on a surface level, but not enough to truly understand the numbers. And the idea of something ripping and tearing the earth, seemingly without the aid of large debris like house and building chunks, is unfathomable for me.

Is hurricane season projected to be bad?
 
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