Remember how May 6th had an absolutely ridiculous parameter space, despite not many tornadoes occurring?
Saturday is back for vengeance for basically the same areas.
This time it's looking even worse.
Models are already painting an incredibly concerning picture for Oklahoma in particular, with CAPE values ranging from 5,000 to
over 7,000 j/kg and a crap ton of shear/helicity to accompany it, with up to (and possibly over) 500 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. Subtle forcing should exist and a discrete storm mode should be maintained throughout the entire event, which would likely start around nighttime. Some uncertainties still remain, particularly regarding mid-level moisture and a strong capping inversion that the NAM is portraying, although typically the NAM shows more capping and less moisture than what's observed.
From what I've seen, chasers and meteorologists are already ruling out a linear mode for Saturday, which means that they won't congeal into a line of storms like what happened on May 6th. The only potential "failure mode" is storms not initiating to begin with, which is certainly not impossible, but it seems unlikely considering the NAM's biases.
We'll get a better picture once more models come into range, which should be around this evening.
South Kansas, and likely parts of north Texas, will also likely experience a similar threat, albeit less intense and/or less likely to occur.
But that's not all.
Sunday also looks incredibly concerning, this time over parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, such as Indiana, south Wisconsin, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and possibly even as far back west as far eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, and as far south as north Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. A very, very broad risk area for this day. There's much more uncertainty for this day, but models do show a very volatile environment, especially for the area, with CAPE values ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg and 0-1km SRH values ranging from 300 to possibly over 400 m2/s2. A discrete mode appears more likely, but since it's an extra day further out, and the NAM is barely in range, we're still not too certain.
The SPC has outlined an Enhanced/30% risk for significant severe weather for both of these days, with a larger Slight/15% risk in the surrounding areas.
Hopefully models aren't correct about these days, because this could lead to a seriously devastating, potentially historic, severe weather and/or tornado outbreak for the outlined regions.
