Severe Weather outbreaks

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Return of the Freaker said:
This cell has produced multiple tornadoes over the last few hours and there was a tornado emergency on one of them. Right now looks like it might be about to drop yet another tornado on Moore.
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Thankfully it didn't produce a tornado in OKC proper (or Moore) but it dropped two tornadoes near Yukon, OK. One of them appears to have been very strong (possibly within the EF3 range), and the storm has become outflow dominant now, so I don't think it'll do anything else now.
 
#FF0000 said:
Thankfully it didn't produce a tornado in OKC proper (or Moore) but it dropped two tornadoes near Yukon, OK. One of them appears to have been very strong (possibly within the EF3 range), and the storm has become outflow dominant now, so I don't think it'll do anything else now.
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With a lot of tornadoes in Oklahoma with so many loaded gun warnings, it's miraculous to have not reach the city proper, thankfully. But I'm still worried about what might drop next near and in the Oklahoma city area considering its possibly the scariest time to be in Oklahoma in the last 10 years. As for Custer City, unfortunately there was some damage and injuries.
 
Been watching Max Velocity. There's a cell that just had a tornado warning expire but earlier based on velocity produced one tornado that curved NE and then almost immediately after produced another that looped backwards. Both were over empty fields
 
Return of the Freaker said:
Been watching Max Velocity. There's a cell that just had a tornado warning expire but earlier based on velocity produced one tornado that curved NE and then almost immediately after produced another that looped backwards. Both were over empty fields
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Yeah, both were extremely strong and came out of nowhere. Wish it was during daytime; we would've gotten some awesome photos.
 
The whole storm system in Kansas that was trending along I-70 was rotating tightly enough that by the time it got near Topeka it had several radar indicated tornado warnings which may have just been the difference between the outflow from the southern arm of it and the air behind. I don't know that any of those tornado warnings were visually confirmed but checking again some hours later it seems to have calmed down to heavy rain thunderstorm mode.
 
not william stenchever said:
The whole storm system in Kansas that was trending along I-70 was rotating tightly enough that by the time it got near Topeka it had several radar indicated tornado warnings which may have just been the difference between the outflow from the southern arm of it and the air behind. I don't know that any of those tornado warnings were visually confirmed but checking again some hours later it seems to have calmed down to heavy rain thunderstorm mode.
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Yeah I think tonight's pretty much done. Tuesday and Thursday look to be the most interesting imo
 
not william stenchever said:
The whole storm system in Kansas that was trending along I-70 was rotating tightly enough that by the time it got near Topeka it had several radar indicated tornado warnings which may have just been the difference between the outflow from the southern arm of it and the air behind. I don't know that any of those tornado warnings were visually confirmed but checking again some hours later it seems to have calmed down to heavy rain thunderstorm mode.
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A few touched down, including one confirmed one near Wichita. Wouldn't be much different from those crazy 100mph+ wind gusts.
Also, how the fuck did the HRW-FV3 model verify?
 
#FF0000 said:
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Likely derecho ongoing in parts of Kansas. If you are in the path, take cover now and treat these severe t-storm warnings as a tornado warning.
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I rode out a fucking derecho in 2022 in a let's say not very sturdy structure and 0/10, not a fun experience nor was the power outage/following heat wave. Would not recommend.

So yeah don't fuck with derechos, they mean business when they come knocking.
 
Green Man said:
I rode out a fucking derecho in 2022 in a let's say not very sturdy structure and 0/10, not a fun experience nor was the power outage/following heat wave. Would not recommend.

So yeah don't fuck with derechos, they mean business when they come knocking.
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We had a derecho in 2022 here in Canada. I was knowledgeable about weather at the time still so I knew shit was bad before it got to me, though it didn't do too much in my region. There was nothing in the forecast for severe thunderstorms so it unfortunately caught people off-guard and some people were killed.
You do not want to mess with them, they are like tornadoes but in a much wider swath. The August 10, 2020 derecho is a perfect example, winds gusted up to 140mph in relatively large swaths and managed to even destroy entire weaker buildings, similar to a tornado.
 
A major severe weather event is expected today, with the SPC stating that "an outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is expected mainly this afternoon to early evening."
A large area of a 15% chance of strong tornadoes is centered over Iowa and some surrounding states. A threat for strong winds and large hail also exist.
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Today has the potential to be extremely bad. Models are beginning to show a very large yet discrete/semi-discrete band of supercells rather than a more linear mode, going from Iowa down to southern Missouri and even parts of Oklahoma. A cluster of cells may also form in parts of Texas and could be tornadic, despite not being in the risk area for tornadoes.
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All the parameters are here for strong tornadoes, with strong moisture, strong instability and very strong wind shear all being present. Anyone in the risk area should be ready for a major severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a widespread tornado outbreak.
 
PDS Tornado Watch is likely soon.
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SUMMARY...Environmental conditions are expected to becoming
increasingly supportive of a significant severe thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3"
inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and long-track tornadoes. A Tornado
Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z, and a PDS designation is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast NE,
with an outflow-modified warm front extending east-northeast across
southern IA through the IA/IL/WI border vicinity. This warm front is
expected to rapidly move northward in response to strong mass
response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with upper 60s
dewpoints likely in place across much of IA and mid 60s possibly
reaching southern MN. As this occurs, steep mid-level lapse rates
will also advect into the region, resulting strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Wind fields are
expected to strengthen during this time frame as well, result in in
very long hodographs and fast storm motion. Bunkers right motion for
much of the region will be around 50 kt by the early afternoon. The
result will be an environment very supportive of significant severe
thunderstorms.

An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with the fast storm
motions allowing storms to stay ahead of the cold front impinging on
the region from the west. Any discrete storms will likely obtain
supercellular characteristics quickly, with very large hail up to 3"
inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes all possible. This
includes the possibility of long-lived, long-track
supercells capable of strong tornadoes and intense wind damage.
Storm interactions with the warm front, as well as the presence of
the deepening surface low, suggest the significant severe potential
will likely extend into south-central/southeast MI and southwest MN,
despite being displaced just north of the better mid-level flow and
low-level moisture.

Some upscale growth is anticipated as storms continue eastward, with
the resulting convective line capable of significant wind gusts
around 75 mph. Given the continued strengthening of the low-level
flow anticipated, some embedded QLCS circulations are likely as
well.

All of these factors suggests a significant severe weather event is
probable, and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z. A
PDS designation is being considered for this watch.
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Miami-Dade is under a severe t-storm warning, tornado possible.
 
EXTREMELY violent tornado just completely cored Greenfield, IA. Literally the entire thing. Debris up to 40kft (!!!) and DOW recording extremely violent winds. Jesus fucking christ.
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Can a guy who knows about cars try and determine what type of car this used to be? Because this is some incredible damage I haven't seen in years.
 
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