If Cali were to go, the rest of the west coast would likely follow, given how politically aligned they are (yes, I know it's just the major population centers of those states - but those population centers believe strongly they should get to dictate things to the rest of the state and they do exactly that).
But I don't think it will be liberal or progressive states that actually secede.
What I think is going to happen is eventually they'll have another small window in which they control all 3 branches (probably after the next Republican POTUS, maybe 2-4 election cycles out, since we tik tok between Republicans and Democrats in that regard), but without a Manchin type roadblock.
They'll proceed to eliminate the fillibuster and then almost immediately both "reshape" the court (stacking it with progressives' minded judges who don't have a consistent judicial framework) and pass "voter reform" laws that are aimed at making sure they retain power (probably dropping the voting age to 16, along with establishing a couple new states that tip the senate permanently blue). Note that these two things are already stated as things they want to do (the former openly, the latter implicitly under the guise of "enfranchising more people").
At which point red states will start ignoring the reshaped court, the Feds'll try to crack down on them, and they'll end up being the states that secede over it since at that point they're effectively disenfranchised from the Federal government (but will do so claiming to be the legitimate followers of the Constitution, rather than a rehash of the civil war era when they formed an entirely different type of government. Probably will tweak things a bit with some amendments).