Link (Archive)
Putinism hides its failures just like communism
Vladimir Putin’s propaganda is bombarding the West with claims of military success in Ukraine, of Russia’s economic growth despite international sanctions, and of widespread global support for the Kremlin. In reality, Moscow’s alleged triumphs are based on the same illusions and deceptions as its failed communist past, in which the Soviet Union was supposedly destined to surpass the West.
Russian leaders are trying to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is losing the war in order to terminate military assistance for Kyiv. In reality, the war is disastrous for Russia. Although the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia for the winter, after defeating Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, the Russian army is being decimated, and its navy has been pushed back from the western part of the Black Sea. During two years of combat, Russia has lost at least 315,000 killed or severely wounded, from a ground force of some 360,000 that invaded Ukraine. It has also sustained huge losses in equipment, including 2,200 out of some 3,500 tanks and a third of its armored vehicles.
Despite Kremlin claims of invincibility, Russia’s resources are limited and shrinking. It has lost a substantial part of its officer corps and has recruited prisoners and foreign mercenaries for the Ukrainian front. Its weapons supplies are declining because production capacities are overstretched with increasing reliance on old Soviet equipment, imported drones from Iran, and shells and ammunition from North Korea.
Until it receives new supplies of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine has temporarily switched its operations from offense to attritional defense in order to kill the maximum number of Russian soldiers. Russia cannot sustain the kinds of losses it is experiencing in the battle over Avdiivka, where about 40,000 recruits have perished in the past three months. Ukraine does not need to launch a major counteroffensive to regain territory but simply to maximize Russian losses until the occupation becomes untenable. Increased supplies of artillery shells for Kyiv will multiply Russian casualties, while long-range rocketry and fighter jets will help destroy Russia’s logistical chains.
Much like their communist predecessors, Moscow’s current rulers also claim that Russia’s economy is growing. In reality, GDP growth in 2023 has only been sustained through massive infusions of cash into the military-industrial sector. The rest of the economy is sinking, shortages are spreading, infrastructure is collapsing, and inflation is rampant. The Kremlin’s war economy is not supportable in the longer term and cannot provide economic growth, especially as Western sanctions are tightening, its military products are demolished in Ukraine, and fewer workers will be available because of war losses and the mass exodus of young Russians. In sum, Russia has little prospect of economic development and is facing increasing social unrest.
Similarly to the communists, the Putinists assert that most of the world supports them against American imperialism and its alleged lackies in Ukraine. But despite a massive disinformation campaign over the past two years, Russia can only rely on a handful of allies, such as Tehran and Pyongyang, and a few unreliable partners in South America and Africa who are mostly bribed by Moscow in exchange for their international support. The Kremlin has lost much of its influence even outside Europe and North America, and its former satellites in Central Asia and the Caucasus are asserting their independence from Moscow. As Russia weakens militarily and economically, its global position will further shrink, with an increasing number of Russians now fearful that it will simply become China’s “younger brother” or will need to surrender its eastern regions to Beijing. Russian imperialism, much like Soviet communism, will collapse when its delusional lies can no longer disguise harsh reality.
Putinism hides its failures just like communism
Vladimir Putin’s propaganda is bombarding the West with claims of military success in Ukraine, of Russia’s economic growth despite international sanctions, and of widespread global support for the Kremlin. In reality, Moscow’s alleged triumphs are based on the same illusions and deceptions as its failed communist past, in which the Soviet Union was supposedly destined to surpass the West.
Russian leaders are trying to convince Western leaders that Ukraine is losing the war in order to terminate military assistance for Kyiv. In reality, the war is disastrous for Russia. Although the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia for the winter, after defeating Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, the Russian army is being decimated, and its navy has been pushed back from the western part of the Black Sea. During two years of combat, Russia has lost at least 315,000 killed or severely wounded, from a ground force of some 360,000 that invaded Ukraine. It has also sustained huge losses in equipment, including 2,200 out of some 3,500 tanks and a third of its armored vehicles.
Despite Kremlin claims of invincibility, Russia’s resources are limited and shrinking. It has lost a substantial part of its officer corps and has recruited prisoners and foreign mercenaries for the Ukrainian front. Its weapons supplies are declining because production capacities are overstretched with increasing reliance on old Soviet equipment, imported drones from Iran, and shells and ammunition from North Korea.
Until it receives new supplies of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine has temporarily switched its operations from offense to attritional defense in order to kill the maximum number of Russian soldiers. Russia cannot sustain the kinds of losses it is experiencing in the battle over Avdiivka, where about 40,000 recruits have perished in the past three months. Ukraine does not need to launch a major counteroffensive to regain territory but simply to maximize Russian losses until the occupation becomes untenable. Increased supplies of artillery shells for Kyiv will multiply Russian casualties, while long-range rocketry and fighter jets will help destroy Russia’s logistical chains.
Much like their communist predecessors, Moscow’s current rulers also claim that Russia’s economy is growing. In reality, GDP growth in 2023 has only been sustained through massive infusions of cash into the military-industrial sector. The rest of the economy is sinking, shortages are spreading, infrastructure is collapsing, and inflation is rampant. The Kremlin’s war economy is not supportable in the longer term and cannot provide economic growth, especially as Western sanctions are tightening, its military products are demolished in Ukraine, and fewer workers will be available because of war losses and the mass exodus of young Russians. In sum, Russia has little prospect of economic development and is facing increasing social unrest.
Similarly to the communists, the Putinists assert that most of the world supports them against American imperialism and its alleged lackies in Ukraine. But despite a massive disinformation campaign over the past two years, Russia can only rely on a handful of allies, such as Tehran and Pyongyang, and a few unreliable partners in South America and Africa who are mostly bribed by Moscow in exchange for their international support. The Kremlin has lost much of its influence even outside Europe and North America, and its former satellites in Central Asia and the Caucasus are asserting their independence from Moscow. As Russia weakens militarily and economically, its global position will further shrink, with an increasing number of Russians now fearful that it will simply become China’s “younger brother” or will need to surrender its eastern regions to Beijing. Russian imperialism, much like Soviet communism, will collapse when its delusional lies can no longer disguise harsh reality.
