but think about it reasonably: in the interest of all the talents' feelings, phase can't run a raffle for only the top girls that would need it, so every talent gets a raffle. but you're a jelly fan, how popular is jelly that her slots will sell out? medium volatility compared to a pippa, tenma, lumi, shiina but higher than a rie, lia, panko, or uruka. as you move down in talent tiers your raffle is less a lottery ticket and becomes more an event ticket. how much of the domestic phase base is going to cali for a first run mostly-only Phase related con?
you likely have okayish-good odds of getting a jelly ticket day of the meet n greet.