This is tinfoil hat territory, but I think some of Phil's loyal paypigs actually manage to save up and wait for specific moments to swoop in and be the tipping hero. Pretty sure Swaggins used to do this, he'd wait for a string of low tips, then flex his cash by tipping for a few solid days. But if someone else stepped up, he'd sit back and build up his next offering.
We kinda saw an example of that with the Pokemon bid war a few days back. It suggests some of the paypigs are sitting on tip money but only bust it out at moments where they can flex/those rare instances where Phil offers something resembling a reward. Right now, with OIC being such a constant, even the paypigs recognize there's little reason to donate because they can't compete, so they set aside money and then donate in larger chunks when no other paypig is around in some weird attempt to look like the stream hero/befriend Phil.
I think we also see it with certain paypigs who have become synonymous with certain days/games, like that one guy who always tips a lot, but only during Street Fighter. He's earned a place in gout history with his consistency, but he otherwise never donates to Phil because what's the point? So, in a way I do agree that Phil won't get a new one because he never seems to get new viewers in general, but I think there's still a few of the old guard of paypigs just waiting for their opportunity to get their 15 minutes of fame.
I wouldn't say that's tinfoil hat when we've already observed that them letting OIC do so much of the heavy lifting has pissed Phil off. Keep in mind, he knows more about who is tipping him than anyone, so when he bitched about that, it wasn't inaccurate information he was basing it on. The motherfucker knows exactly how few people float his streams, his refusal to REALLY do something about it means nothing, in terms of his awareness.
If OIC vanishes, there's no doubt that it creates an opportunity for the second banana to become the new "hero", but the peak still lowers, because like you say, they can't outshine him consistently. Only on rare moments, from saving up in order to do so. That 15 minutes of fame? That's not what Phil wants, he wants more whales, who are going to support him for a VERY long time to come. That's another reason why he's pushing for subs, in addition to the enabling it does for him, it means bigger checks per month, as well as more
commitment from his retards. It means they're giving him a certain amount, from that point forward, that he can always count on.
Phil may live day-to-day, but it's because of that, that he needs whales who dedicate themselves to him. He knows how much that loyalty is vital, he knows his chosen lifestyle requires that commitment, and he does operate accordingly. That's why it's a form of copium to him to begin with, it tells him he doesn't need to worry about his past, or present, costing him everything. He just isn't honest and upfront about it. Or competent, because the thing he doesn't know is that his tradition of constantly turning the heat up in the room in response to it killing the other occupants, is also killing his ability to acquire more commitment from enough people to float his retarded lifestyle for however many years the Grim Reaper has decided to let him have.
Phil needs to back off on a LOT of things, JUST to attract a new whale, let alone do ANYTHING about his shit-tier rep with normal people. Right now, he's demonstrating that he would rather slowly kill himself than relent on the repulsive nature of his streams, because he doesn't yet understand that that's the case. He hasn't yet put together that his insistence on getting MORE pigroach is preventing him from getting away with being a pigroach period and coasting for years. Will he ever? Most don't think so, and I can see why, but we'll find out one day.