Crime New study on Swedish rape offenders

As some of you may know, rape statistics in Sweden stand out - the numbers are much higher than in surrounding countries. This has become somewhat of a political argument with the country being dubbed "the rape capital of the world" by Nigel Farage (see arguments trying to refute this: The Local). The left argue that the numbers are high because (a) people are more prone to report rape and that (b) the definition of rape is stricter. The right argue that immigrants (more specifically people from North and East Africa, the Arab world, and Afghanistan and Iran) are to blame. Even more recent spikes in rapes have been attributed to this but the left furiously calls this oversimplified racism (an example here: The Local):

"We are not facing an occupation by Muslim men who rape our women," Sarnecki told Dagens Nyheter. "The report shows that the immigration influx has not affected the number of sexual offences."

Sarnecki instead concludes that changing attitudes toward what constitutes sexual assault are a driving factor behind the increase in reported incidents.

"It's clear that there is less tolerance for certain types of sexual offenses that may have not previously been reported," he said.

One of the major contentions has been that Brottsförebyggande Rådet (BRÅ; literal translation: Crime Prevention Council), which compiles statistics on crime on an annual basis, have not take citizenship, country of birth, or ethnicity into account in reports since 2005.

So, what is this news that I'm bringing? Well, four researchers at Lund's University published a new article in Forensic Sciences Research this week that examines over 3,000 rape cases from Swedish courts between the years 2000 and 2015. The article. Among other things, the authors find that:

Rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape (rape+) are increasing in Sweden.

and that:

A majority of them [the offenders] were immigrants (n = 1 800; 59.3%) of which a majority (n = 1 451; 47.8%) were born outside of Sweden.

These numbers should be compared with the 17-18% of the total population born outside Sweden in 2016. These numbers do not include second generation immigrants, which are likely to also be elevated.

The whole article can be found as pdf here.

 

[Fomo Hoire]

Sorry for the necro, I was looking at what people had archived recently and noticed what I think may be a tiny update to this story?

Looks like October 28th, someone wrote a followup in Swedish. I can't read it, but someone translated it into English. Lazy English that skips the hyperlinks, but at least it's kind of intelligible.

I think most of it is a summary of the original study, but this part looks recent:

Sundquist and his colleagues already have allegations of violations of good research practices. They are also accused of failing to claim that their research did not reduce exclusion and did not improve integration. Despite the fact that the prosecutor’s office did not find any signs of crime, the Ethics Appeals Board filed an appeal and the Attorney General, despite the lack of new facts, changed his decision and initiated a investigation on 13 October.

Looks like as of a month and a half ago, the authors hadn't properly retracted their study and crawled under a rock to atone for their sins against diversity, so now they're being "investigated".

OP does include a link to the PDF but I'm attaching it here anyways just in case it really does get retracted and harder to obtain.