MASSIVE Erection Thread 2016 - Lizard has the advantage. Trump is spiraling towards defeat.

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All discussion of the candidates, updates and results should go here

For example- here's a video of Ted Cruz vying for world domination.


Also Hilary Clinton is a crook and nobody should have sex with her.

Discuss

(Note- The title will change as we get nearer the election, previous titles will be archived in the OP)
 
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Brandobaris said:
People think racial profiling is bad when statistics back it up. Also, statistics are sexist and racist.
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Mkay let me bring up my old post that triggered OnlineViolence into rage quitting from the farms forever.

Facts:
Out of every 1000 violent crimes only 500 are reported.
Out of those 500 violent crimes 230 result in arrests.
Out of those 230 crimes 115 result in the charges being dropped due to lack of evidence or some type of police or prosecutor malpractice.
Out of those 115 charged who go to court 103 plead guilty 12 plead not guilty.
Out of those 12 who plead guilty 4 are found not guilty.
Out of those 111 people in prison 4 of them are later found to be falsely convicted.
Out of those 108 people 54 of them are black.

That doesn’t mean black people commit half the crimes it means black people commit 5% of the crimes and the additional 90% of the crimes we don’t know who commits because the criminal justice system is a failure.

Now for crime statistics themselves we can use basic statistical analysis to determine if rac, living arrangement, or socioeconomic status are stronger factors for crime.

http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5137

  • Poor persons living in urban areas (43.9 per 1,000) had violent victimization rates similar to poor persons living in rural areas (38.8 per 1,000).

  • Poor urban blacks (51.3 per 1,000) had rates of violence similar to poor urban whites (56.4 per 1,000).
Because whites usually compose a larger population than blacks in any given city or county, it is statistically more probable to be mugged or assaulted by a white individual than a black one. Not because whites are more likely to be criminals but because they are statistically a bigger portion of the population.

This doesn't however mean that we need to be afraid of every white/black guy we see in the street (since most crimes occur near or in your very own home http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=44) but it does mean that we need to take a certain level of wise caution with any given individual irregardless of race.
 
Pikimon said:
Because whites usually compose a larger population than blacks in any given city or county, it is statistically more probable to be mugged or assaulted by a white individual than a black one. Not because whites are more likely to be criminals but because they are statistically a bigger portion of the population.

This doesn't however mean that we need to be afraid of every white/black guy we see in the street (since most crimes occur near or in your very own home http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=44) but it does mean that we need to take a certain level of wise caution with any given individual irregardless of race.
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I'm not sure what you are trying to say. Statistics are Pointless? Racially profiling is pointless? You scared someone off the site? A statistician should be mad he wasted his life??

So you think that something like Black on Black violence shouldn't be addressed since ratio-wise its not really that bad in the community probably misreported and everything is fine? How do you figure out where to build Police stations, where funding should go for things involving human error in reporting? Your gut?
 
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Brandobaris said:
I'm not sure what you are trying to say. Statistics are Pointless? Racially profiling is pointless? You scared someone off the site?

So you think that something like Black on Black violence shouldn't be addressed since ratio-wise its not really that bad in the community and everything is fine?
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What I'm saying is that statistics point towards poverty being a better indicator of crime than race, and that racial profiling will not only infringe on the rights of millions of Americans for the paranoia of a few, but will also be ineffective at addressing the real root of crime and allow a significant portion of people that commit crime to fly below the radar.
 
Pikimon said:
What I'm saying is that statistics point towards poverty being a better indicator of crime than race, and that racial profiling will not only infringe on the rights of millions of Americans for the paranoia of a few, but will also be ineffective at addressing the real root of crime and allow a significant portion of people that commit crime to fly below the radar.
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Well you could've just said that. So how do you poverty profile people? Ask them to tell you their account balance? See if they are wearing brand name?
 
Eh, the simple fact to me is that I'm on this ride and there's no getting off.

Regardless of who you support I'm pretty sure this is a fairly decent explanation of where things are. At this point I just look at the spectacle for entertainment value.
 
Pikimon said:
What I'm saying is that statistics point towards poverty being a better indicator of crime than race, and that racial profiling will not only infringe on the rights of millions of Americans for the paranoia of a few, but will also be ineffective at addressing the real root of crime and allow a significant portion of people that commit crime to fly below the radar.
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cpt06a-fig02.jpg

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Looking through some of the stats, I can see how law enforcement came to use racial profiling. Since it appears poverty correlates to ethnicity on some level. But I don't know more beyond what I've just read. I'm hanging out with more Asians and Whites from now on! : P

But if race appears to correlate with poverty AND crime. What's happening here? Why is it?
 
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Pikimon said:
Mkay let me bring up my old post that triggered OnlineViolence into rage quitting from the farms forever.

Facts:
Out of every 1000 violent crimes only 500 are reported.
Out of those 500 violent crimes 230 result in arrests.
Out of those 230 crimes 115 result in the charges being dropped due to lack of evidence or some type of police or prosecutor malpractice.
Out of those 115 charged who go to court 103 plead guilty 12 plead not guilty.
Out of those 12 who plead guilty 4 are found not guilty.
Out of those 111 people in prison 4 of them are later found to be falsely convicted.
Out of those 108 people 54 of them are black.

That doesn’t mean black people commit half the crimes it means black people commit 5% of the crimes and the additional 90% of the crimes we don’t know who commits because the criminal justice system is a failure.

Now for crime statistics themselves we can use basic statistical analysis to determine if rac, living arrangement, or socioeconomic status are stronger factors for crime.

http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5137

  • Poor persons living in urban areas (43.9 per 1,000) had violent victimization rates similar to poor persons living in rural areas (38.8 per 1,000).

  • Poor urban blacks (51.3 per 1,000) had rates of violence similar to poor urban whites (56.4 per 1,000).
Because whites usually compose a larger population than blacks in any given city or county, it is statistically more probable to be mugged or assaulted by a white individual than a black one. Not because whites are more likely to be criminals but because they are statistically a bigger portion of the population.

This doesn't however mean that we need to be afraid of every white/black guy we see in the street (since most crimes occur near or in your very own home http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=44) but it does mean that we need to take a certain level of wise caution with any given individual irregardless of race.
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I'm not trying to start shit here, but you are mixing and matching statistics that are not actually related. Your RAINN cite, the first cite you give, is listing their interpretation of sexual violence data. Following their provided link for simple criminal justice data simply redirects to their sexual violence charts.

The more apt second cite, from the FBI, details crimes cleared, not arrests of individuals as you appear to be suggesting. If you read the cite, the arrest of one individual may clear multiple crimes while the arrest of a group of people may clear only one crime. There is not a one-for-one correlation in this data that you can apply per capita or segment across groups.

I only did a quick skim of the two articles in your third cite. One focuses heavily on a study of federal court trials, both criminal and civil. That one does make an odd proclamation by ignoring that the national violent crime rate has been falling during the time period they are concerned with. The second one seems to be specifically about Cook County Illinois, so I really didn't look into it much.

Your fourth cite outlines the process of a criminal case. It has no data supporting the premise that 12 out of 115 defendants plead not guilty.

The fifth cite is behind a ResearchGate paywall, so I can't see their data. While it is likely not much has changed since 2000, there is surely something more recent out there.

I've got to skip out, but I hope you see what I mean. No one you are arguing against is supplying anything regarding the efficacy of racial profiling and I mostly agree with you, in that it is at the very least unethical and probably illegal. Still, you cannot reasonably take rate data from many different sources and condense it down to a declarative statement. All you need to make your point is the percentage of black people in prison and the violent crime rate among black people. If that differs from the white people sample, nothing more needs to be said.
 
Jon-Kacho said:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_poli...n-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

CNN's latest national poll puts Daddy 2 points ahead, a 10 point swing from August. Looks like teleprompter Daddy is much more popular than off the cuff Daddy.
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I haven't been paying attention for a month but this is a thing now? Fucking Trump is leading going into the debates? Were all those 30 point lead polls from Nate Silver or something? I knew it would be close at the end but I never expected to see Trump lead at any point.
 
Oh Long Johnson said:
I haven't been paying attention for a month but this is a thing now? Fucking Trump is leading going into the debates? Were all those 30 point lead polls from Nate Silver or something? I knew it would be close at the end but I never expected to see Trump lead at any point.
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Even 538 had trump leading briefly after rnc and prior to DNC
 
Brandobaris said:
Well you could've just said that. So how do you poverty profile people? Ask them to tell you their account balance? See if they are wearing brand name?
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Or you could not profile people and just arrest people when they commit crime.
 
Pikimon said:
Or you could not profile people and just arrest people when they commit crime.
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Arrest people when they commit the crime... So you want an officer following every person in the country waiting fo them to fuck up? Or is it more a Minority Report deal you are going for?
 
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