*Sees Ghostbusters BS*
... Is it safe to say Trump Wins...? Is it safe to be scared, seeing as I'm black, as well??
Unless Trump manages to somehow repair the incredibly high negatives he has with women and minority groups, he's still pretty royally screwed. That or he needs to manage to court nearly the entire white male vote his side.
The reality is that the make up of the electoral map is such that the Democrats have a sizable advantage under the current coalition. Consider that Bush only had 271 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win in 2000, and 285 in 2004. Obama, by contrast, had 365 of that 270 in 2008, and 332 in 2012. Bush only squeaked by to the tune of 500 votes in Florida in 2000 to just win the election by two more electoral votes, and only had 16 more with the incumbent's advantage in 2004. It's also worth remembering that Bush managed to pick up 40% of the Latino vote in 2000, a number which Republicans haven't managed to get anywhere near since. And since then, the white percentage of the electorate has grown smaller in size compared to the sum of all non-white electorates. Bush wouldn't have stood a chance with both today's demographics, in addition to the fact the Latino vote continues to move into a more reliably Democratic voter base.
If you mess with prediction models, such as the one run on 538, if the amount of minority voters who voted in 2012 remains constant in 2016, and all groups have the same inclinations towards either party as they in 2012, even if literally every white person in the country votes, Clinton would still narrowly defeat Trump. It would be a narrow win, like 2004 for Bush, but a win nonetheless. The white vote, or at least the white male vote considering how badly he's polling with white women, is just not enough to win anymore.
This is certainly Clinton's election to lose, though I would admit that Trump is enough of an oddity that it's not entirely unthinkable that he somehow pulls something out of his ass that could be great enough to get him to win. I imagine if we get the minor recession that a lot of economists predict this year, it could get him a couple more points, as the incumbent presidential party is blamed. Perhaps the best thing to happen for Trump, though, as morbid and terrible as it is, is if a fairly sizeable terrorist attack happens close to the election. The national security issue was used effectively by Bush in 2004 to support his campaign, and Trump could potentially win if he used a tragedy like that as 'evidence' that the Democratic solution to security isn't enough. Given his hard line stances on both terrorism (Kill terrorist's families), and Muslims (The obvious ban), in addition to his confident and brash demeanor, it could cause a great tilt towards him.
