MASSIVE Erection Thread 2016 - Lizard has the advantage. Trump is spiraling towards defeat.

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All discussion of the candidates, updates and results should go here

For example- here's a video of Ted Cruz vying for world domination.


Also Hilary Clinton is a crook and nobody should have sex with her.

Discuss

(Note- The title will change as we get nearer the election, previous titles will be archived in the OP)
 
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Dudeofteenage said:
Is there a scenario where Kasich gets Ohio but Trump does win it?
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Not really. Trump needs Ohio, or he'll only have a simple majority of delegates. If Trump doesn't win Ohio, the GOP is rocketing full-speed to a brokered convention, which will spell doom for both Trump's prospect as president, and a GOP win in the White House. They'll put up some establishment loser like Mitt "Let 'em all in!" Romney, and Clinton will curbstomp the GOP. Part of the reason Trump is popular in the first place, is because the GOP's base is tired of rich guys using illegal immigration to their benefit and their constituents' detriment. Trump is the only one slamming the brakes here.

At this point, it's Trump or Clinton for November, no matter who wins the nomination. If Trump loses Ohio on Tuesday, a Clinton presidency is 100% assured.
 
According to 538 Trump can still get the delegates he needs without ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...souri-they-could-help-make-trump-unstoppable/
If Trump loses Ohio but still wins Florida and sweeps Illinois and Missouri, he would need to win 50 percent of all other remaining delegates, a slightly higher bar but still very doable — and he would probably still be “on pace” for the nomination according to our delegate targets.
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Polling indicates trump holds leads in every other state other than Ohio, which is now a tie. He can still get the nomination without it.
 
KatsuKitty said:
Not really. Trump needs Ohio, or he'll only have a simple majority of delegates. If Trump doesn't win Ohio, the GOP is rocketing full-speed to a brokered convention, which will spell doom for both Trump's prospect as president, and a GOP win in the White House. They'll put up some establishment loser like Mitt "Let 'em all in!" Romney, and Clinton will curbstomp the GOP. Part of the reason Trump is popular in the first place, is because the GOP's base is tired of rich guys using illegal immigration to their benefit and their constituents' detriment. Trump is the only one slamming the brakes here.

At this point, it's Trump or Clinton for November, no matter who wins the nomination. If Trump loses Ohio on Tuesday, a Clinton presidency is 100% assured.
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The GOP would probably put Cruz or Rubio over Romney if Trump fails to get Ohio. Cruz is the only Republican candidate that has a chance at defeating Trump, and Rubio is many's second choice if I remember correctly.
 
DirkBloodStormKing said:
The GOP would probably put Cruz or Rubio over Romney if Trump fails to get Ohio. Cruz is the only Republican candidate that has a chance at defeating Trump, and Rubio is many's second choice if I remember correctly.
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The GOP hates Cruz almost as much as they hate Trump. They view him as a stubborn obstructionist who isn't willing to play Big Business' game.
 
You know you're the scum of the Earth when fucking Buzzfeed has the moral high ground over you.
 
KatsuKitty said:
The GOP hates Cruz almost as much as they hate Trump. They view him as a stubborn obstructionist who isn't willing to play Big Business' game.
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If Trump takes Ohio and Florida, what do you think will happen?
 
*Asterisk* said:
It makes no difference.
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It does. If trump lost Ohio it would slow him down considerably. He still has a good shot though, just depends how well he does outside of Florida on Tuesday.

I am looking forward to Rubio losing tomorrow. Multiple polls have given trump 20+ point leads. Little marco isn't recovering from a body blow like that.
 
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KatsuKitty said:
Trump wins the nomination.
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Depends how seriously the GOP plans on rigging it. They could change the rules to require a bigger majority for instance, and are allegedly duking in faithless Trump delegates who will either change their votes or at least go along with procedural changes to change the rules.

This isn't one of those deals where the insurgent is Ronald Reagan and they realize not only can't they take it from him, but he will win if they nominate him.

Instead, the establishment hates his guts and on top of that is sure that he'll lose. Whether they're right about that or not, they seem to be sure of it.

Thing is, anyone else they duke in will lose, probably even harder.

They could save their dignity by letting him lose if they think that's what he's going to do anyway. The alternative is to torpedo the GOP itself.

(Which I'd find delightful.)
 
The other part of Trump becoming the nominee is that he would become the standard-bearer for the entire party, which means every Republican in Congress would have to at least be willing to play nice with him. Trump hasn't done anything to help any of the vulnerable GOP congress-critters. Normally, the presidential nominee helps out in close congressional races, either with money or by making appearances. I don't see Trump doing either of those.

On the flip side, Clinton has been raising money for various Democrat campaigns, but Sanders has not. That may influence some people's opinions.
 
Wallace said:
The other part of Trump becoming the nominee is that he would become the standard-bearer for the entire party, which means every Republican in Congress would have to at least be willing to play nice with him. Trump hasn't done anything to help any of the vulnerable GOP congress-critters. Normally, the presidential nominee helps out in close congressional races, either with money or by making appearances. I don't see Trump doing either of those.
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I'm confident he will, but only to fuck over some key opponents out of their seats.

Wallace said:
On the flip side, Clinton has been raising money for various Democrat campaigns, but Sanders has not. That may influence some people's opinions.
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She has some nerve banging on about that given that she and the Mr. deliberately allowed the '94 Democratic House Majority to expire without raising a cent for any outside race.
 
AnOminous said:
Instead, the establishment hates his guts and on top of that is sure that he'll lose. Whether they're right about that or not, they seem to be sure of it.

Thing is, anyone else they duke in will lose, probably even harder.
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It's true that they will probably lose no matter who the nominee is. The worry is that Trump will, in losing, permanently damage the GOP brand. I think that's partly true but also exaggerated - the GOP brand was already fairly damaged just by having Palin on the Veep ticket and it hasn't really been rebuilt (except to the extent that people have short political memories).

Rubio or Kasich would probably lose, but they'd probably lose fairly gracefully. (Cruz probably wouldn't).
 
*Asterisk* said:
All that's left is to cuck Rubio out of his senate seat later this year, and bend Cruz over the barrel two years after.
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Rubio isn't running for reelection, so he would have been gone on January 3 no matter what.

AnOminous said:
Depends how seriously the GOP plans on rigging it. They could change the rules to require a bigger majority for instance, and are allegedly duking in faithless Trump delegates who will either change their votes or at least go along with procedural changes to change the rules.

This isn't one of those deals where the insurgent is Ronald Reagan and they realize not only can't they take it from him, but he will win if they nominate him.

Instead, the establishment hates his guts and on top of that is sure that he'll lose. Whether they're right about that or not, they seem to be sure of it.

Thing is, anyone else they duke in will lose, probably even harder.

They could save their dignity by letting him lose if they think that's what he's going to do anyway. The alternative is to torpedo the GOP itself.

(Which I'd find delightful.)
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It really is a "rock and a hard place" situation for Republicans. A lot of big donors are slowly beginning to focus on retaining the Senate almost exclusively. I've had conversations here in Alabama (!) with people who think that a Clinton presidency, with strong Republican majorities in both houses of Congress acting as a bulwark, may be preferable to Trump. Then again, most of these people don't believe that Trump can win, which is something I have serious doubts about as well.
 
Time for some strawpolls!

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I'll post results about a half hour before polls close
 
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