While the prevailing post-payrolls narrative has focused on the surprisingly strong headline payrolls number (at 216K, this not only came above most estimates but was the highest in 4 months, denting the Fed's case for a March rate cut) and the far stronger than expected hourly earnings (which rose to 4.1%, but only because hours worked dropped again to 34.3, a level last seen in the pre-covid days from 34.4) and unchanged unemployment rate, which at 3.7% further makes the case for rate cuts quite challenging, a closer look at the details of today's jobs report reveals just how ugly the reality behind the the Budget-Busting Bidenomics truly is.
Let's start with the now monthly revisions.
Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which - without fail - had been revised lower...
... and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from 10 of the past 11 months has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.
But that's just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were rather terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!
Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious in the chart below.
While that's bad, unfortunately it gets much worse, because while we already know that there is something very troubling with jobs quantitatively, the Household Survey also looks at the quality of jobs gained or lost, and specifically it breaks down the jobs into full-time and part-time jobs (Source: Table A-9).
Here, one look at this month's adjustment and it's literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin, the mainstream media, or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in December the number of full-time jobs plunged by 1.531 million to 133.2 million, the biggest monthly drop since the record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!
Of course, as full-time jobs crashed, something had to offset the plunge, and sure enough, it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In December, the number of part-timers soared by a whopping 762,000, the second highest monthly increase since the covid lockdowns, to 27.794 million, the highest print since March 2018!
Putting this in context, it means that since February of 2023, the US has not added a single full-time job (in fact it has lost 34,000), while adding 774 part-time jobs!
But wait, there's more, because going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders - those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In December, that number surged by 222K, and at 8.565 million was the highest print on record!
Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in December the US added 216K payrolls (which included a record number of double-counted multiple jobholders), and yet the number of employed workers actually crashed by 683K, the biggest drop in 4 years. Furthermore, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in December, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 1.5 million, offset by a 762K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 222K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is Bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.
In short: December was a catastrophic month for the jobs market, which is why we expect the usual theater: non-stop spin and lies from the Biden admin, and not a single relevant question from the liberal media whose job is not to educate or inform, but to carry water, spread lies and enable propaganda.
But wait there's even more, because just as we enter the peak of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be (illegally) casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in December, the number of native-born worker
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border - and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin. Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November... and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose.
Let's start with the now monthly revisions.
Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which - without fail - had been revised lower...
... and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from 10 of the past 11 months has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.
But that's just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were rather terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!
Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious in the chart below.
While that's bad, unfortunately it gets much worse, because while we already know that there is something very troubling with jobs quantitatively, the Household Survey also looks at the quality of jobs gained or lost, and specifically it breaks down the jobs into full-time and part-time jobs (Source: Table A-9).
Here, one look at this month's adjustment and it's literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin, the mainstream media, or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in December the number of full-time jobs plunged by 1.531 million to 133.2 million, the biggest monthly drop since the record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!
Of course, as full-time jobs crashed, something had to offset the plunge, and sure enough, it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In December, the number of part-timers soared by a whopping 762,000, the second highest monthly increase since the covid lockdowns, to 27.794 million, the highest print since March 2018!
Putting this in context, it means that since February of 2023, the US has not added a single full-time job (in fact it has lost 34,000), while adding 774 part-time jobs!
But wait, there's more, because going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders - those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In December, that number surged by 222K, and at 8.565 million was the highest print on record!
Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in December the US added 216K payrolls (which included a record number of double-counted multiple jobholders), and yet the number of employed workers actually crashed by 683K, the biggest drop in 4 years. Furthermore, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in December, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 1.5 million, offset by a 762K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 222K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is Bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.
In short: December was a catastrophic month for the jobs market, which is why we expect the usual theater: non-stop spin and lies from the Biden admin, and not a single relevant question from the liberal media whose job is not to educate or inform, but to carry water, spread lies and enable propaganda.
But wait there's even more, because just as we enter the peak of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be (illegally) casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in December, the number of native-born worker
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border - and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin. Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November... and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose.
