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Hurricane Isaias, a Category 3 major hurricane with 120-mph winds, is bearing down on the Gulf Coast. The first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, and the latest-forming first hurricane in the basin in more than a century, strengthened to a Category 3 on Friday, Oct. 9. Accuweather
Where is Hurricane Isaias going? AccuWeather expects landfall between 8 p.m. EDT Friday and 1 a.m. EDT Saturday somewhere between Dauphin Island, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Isaias is forecast to weaken slightly to a Category 2 hurricane with winds up to 110 mph at landfall. The strongest winds and highest storm surge are expected near and just east of the landfall point. The storm will then move quickly inland across Alabama and the Southeast this weekend, with a flood and tornado threat well east of the center.
What are the main hazards from Isaias?
Storm surge: 6–10 feet along Alabama’s coast and the western Florida Panhandle, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 feet.
Rain and flooding: 8–12 inches near and east of the track, with a Local StormMax™ of 25 inches.
Wind: gusts of 100–120 mph near and just east of landfall, with damaging winds and power outages extending well inland.
Tornadoes and waterspouts near and east of the center.
Evacuations: Mandatory evacuations are in effect for coastal Zones A and B in Okaloosa County, Florida, and officials in Escambia County, including Pensacola Beach, are urging residents to leave. Pensacola’s mayor warned that bridges close once sustained winds reach 39 mph. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties.
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 87.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.2 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward
motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to
approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make
landfall within the warning area this evening.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or
near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening.
Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall,
and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently
reported at Dauphin Island, Alabama.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft
Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft
Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
this evening into early Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are
now beginning. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland
as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the tropical storm warning areas.
RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized
totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2
to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and
coastal Carolinas.
Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with
considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also
expected, some of which could be significant.
TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue
tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across
parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the
Carolinas.
SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward
the Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Waffle House locations in Pensacola are closing ahead of an approaching hurricane
The "Waffle House Index" is an informal metric used by FEMA to gauge a storm's severity
A closed Waffle House, indicated by a red status, signifies a serious disaster is imminent
Waffle House prides itself on reopening quickly after storms to serve communities, even without power
Pensacola now has a hurricane warning some locals take the most seriously of all: Waffle Houses are closing.
Waffle House confirmed to the News Journal that all Escambia and Santa Rosa County locations will close today at 10 a.m. and remain closed until conditions are safe following Hurricane Isaias.
The Waffle House Index, an informal FEMA metric for disaster severity based on operation status, has set all of the Pensacola area Waffle House’s to “threatened” status, meaning they are at severe risk of closure.
Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate created the Waffle House Index while he was leading Florida’s emergency management efforts in 2004, according to AP News.
For the South, the sight of one of the 24-hours shutdown typically means disaster is imminent.
With over 2,000 locations nationwide recorded on the Waffle House Tracker, the map can give a glimpse of which areas will be hit the hardest by a storm.
Out of the three-color metrics used to rank – green (open,) yellow (at risk) and red (threatened,) Florida is lit up in bright red spanning from the Panhandle down toward Gainesville, as well as sections of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia and North Carolina. Red typically indicates that the “restaurant is closed. Conditions are severe,” according to the Waffle House Tracker. “This rarely happens and indicates a serious disaster.”
Reports have been flooding social media of their local Waffle Houses shutting down in different staggered times since yesterday, with Flora-Bama confirming that their neighboring Perdido Key restaurant had closed yesterday.
Waffle House prides itself on being among the first to open up once their doors once the storm has passed, administering hot meals when many are still without power.
Waffle House employees even train to be prepared when disaster strikes, including what they can still serve without having electricity, AP continued.
It's not landing here, unless it magically turns here. We did got a lot of rain here the last few days because of it. We are getting a bit of wind today and they might cancel work tomorrow because of people not used to living in Florida tarding out about it.
This isn't accurate. Only the Waffle Houses in two counties in the Florida panhandle have been closed. The Waffle House Tracker map doesn't show Waffle Houses that are closed, necessarily, only the ones under weather advisories. Zooming in I saw a bunch of red ones hundreds of miles away that were just under such as a flood watch because of local weather but presumably still open. Notice that on the legend red doesn't mean closed but "threatened"
This is where the Waffle Houses are closed. Google says this is probably a total of 23 locations. Waffle House claims to operate over 2000 locations.
However when the Waffle Houses do close you know it's bad
It is curious how history does rhyme on occasion. Tomorrow is the 8th anniversary of Hurricane Michael's landfall, slightly further east of where Isaias will come ashore, and at a much greater strength. But one thing these two hurricanes have in common is that instead of the vertical wind shear degrading the storm, as usually happens to hurricanes in the Gulf in October (see Milton from a couple of years ago), the direction the shear is coming from is helping them maintain intensity. It is why Michael was able to reach category 5 right before landfall in the face of 50 knots of wind shear. Isaias does not have enough time left over water to reach that same milestone, but any weakening from here is not going to be meaningful.
The Peninsula's been getting tickled by perimeter bands and just that has caused several days of flood warnings. Lots of retention ponds went from basically dry to overfull in that time. I'd guess this is going to be a slow rolling, low-intensity, high precipitation one like the Carolinas got a while back. Good luck Panhandlebros!
That's when you know shit is getting real. I did a road trip about 15 years ago, and sought refuge in a Waffle House during some serious storms. Tornadoes and funnel clouds were popping down all over, and shit was just business as usual, almost eerily so. Staff didn't bat an eye, customers didnt bat an eye. I've since learned this is fairly typical of Floridians. Its one of the reasons I can't help but to like Florida.
