How Ben lost everything - Or how prediction market arbitration will fuck you up.

[Kiislova]

Barely a few days ago I was scrapping the internet for old Benjamin videos and just now he posts a video on how he lost all his money, ironically becoming part of his own lore of wallstreetbets losses.

Enjoy:

Local copy:

 

[Breadbassket]

No crying in the casino.

 

[cigint]

how strong is my higher-timeframe mean reversion signal

I love how degenerates come up with this "third-order acid reflux weak-to-strong substrate antisignal" terminology to convince themselves they aren't just putting it all on black.

 

[Althalus]

I love how degenerates come up with this "third-order acid reflux weak-to-strong substrate antisignal" terminology to convince themselves they aren't just putting it all on black.

It's basically finance bro logic, but less coherent since they never actually studied finance.

 

[Neodanthril]

Should I know who this is

 

[okyt]

So according to an AI summary of the video, he treated the stock market like a casino and is surprised when he lost it all.

 

[FlappyBat]

I love how degenerates come up with this "third-order acid reflux weak-to-strong substrate antisignal" terminology to convince themselves they aren't just putting it all on black.

Not bothering to watch the video my guess is something along the lines of:

Stocks on average have empirically two competing forces and which one is stronger depends on the time horizon. At short terms (~1 year or less) stocks tend to show some momentum where stocks that have done well recently tend to continue doing well for some time. This is offset in the long term (~10 years) where stocks show mean reversion and stocks that have done well over the prior period tend to under perform over the next 10 years. It's noisy and doesn't happen every time, but it's been consistently observed through historical data sets.

My guess is he overestimated the strength of that later trend and lost because of it.

The real lesson is don't pick stocks and don't pretend that your python program is going to outcompete high frequency algorithmic traders with an army of nerds whose entry level salary is >$350k.

 

[Mr. Ghoul]

When has a day trader not been absolutely felted? The only sure bet is that it will happen eventually.

 

[Kiislova]

The only sure bet is that it will happen eventually.

The ever relevant "It works, until it doesn't"

 

[Harry Dresden]

I remember watching a few of this guy's videos; he's actually pretty entertaining, and it was hilarious that he admitted he got to party with Sam Bankman-Fried. Many YouTubers would try to deny those accusations, but he embraced it without shame.

 

[elite_club]

Sad to see this, I’ve enjoyed his videos and found them very informative. But this is a big lesson in risk management(aka don’t bet the whole farm even if it seems like a guaranteed win). Honestly if you ask me statistical arbitration is such an uncertain area to operate within that even the most experienced in doing so would benefit from making it only a small amount of their portfolio, as demonstrated by Ben’s video.

 

[Waffle Iron]

I don't understand all the fancy words he's using, but did he keep betting his entire bank account after he made money off of election gambling arbitration? Sounds to me like his plan was: use all my money to make money with arbitration, then go on as usual. But then he later decided to keep betting with his entire capital doing stupid options shit that ended up bankrupting him?