Greece defaults on its debts

  • Want to keep track of this thread?
    Accounts can bookmark posts, watch threads for updates, and jump back to where you stopped reading.
    Create account
Holding a referendum on a highly technical issue that most of the voters won't even understand is the height of irresponsibility.

It is basically trolling and it is no wonder that the IMF blew them off.

I'm not exactly a fan of the IMF, but this is some bullshit. Giving in to Greek demands would just open the floodgates to more attempts to weasel out of debt by other countries that have not to date tried such a tactic.

I think the IMF is as much to blame for this as Greece, and has a long-standing policy of extending loans conditioned on governments (often corrupt and incompetent) implementing horrible policies, but however you address that, this is clearly not the way.

Basically handing Greece a windfall for bad behavior would create a huge moral hazard. Other countries would follow suit.

Not that I'm an expert on this or anything, but I don't think it takes Milton Friedman or Keynes to see that this shit is fucked up.
I think of it as Greece resorting to using a Trojan horse tactic to prove their points. There are consequences to what they did and both entities should have been more accountable for what happened. There is going to be a lot of short-term pain for Greece and their situation is not going to improve overnight. It's going to take months, possibly years for the country to regain some economic footing again, not to mention how deep rooted their issues with Germany are and what happened during World War 2.

One big lesson from this debacle is to never fuck with Greece or else they will find some way to fight back.
 
Interesting fact: During the late 1990's Greece was given advice from Goldman Sachs about how to mask some of it's economic indicators and debt. This would give them the standard needed to be accepted into the euro. Apparently the commission responsible for inducting countries into the currency knew about the fraud and ignored it.

So it's all their faults really.
 
Basically handing Greece a windfall for bad behavior would create a huge moral hazard. Other countries would follow suit.

They don't have to hand Greece a windfall, but I think it's worth questioning whether the austerity policies they're calling for would be good for Greece (or indeed Europe). @PantsOfDesire mentioned that it has done Ireland good, but my understanding is that the Greek economy is much weaker overall, and cutting into pensions at a time when a quarter of the workforce is unemployed seems immensely shortsighted.

Greece has already agreed to review its public corruption (something I think Syriza was planning on doing anyway) and they're in talks to privatize some utilities and the country's biggest port. It's unfair to say that Greece hasn't acquiesced in places.

Also Syriza (or rather most of Syriza) isn't that lefty. There are definitely some loopy neo-Communist elements in there, but the party was originally a coalition of everything from social democrats to socialists to communists. Varoufakis describes himself as an 'erratic Marxist,' which is hardly ADF-tier.
 
Interesting fact: During the late 1990's Greece was given advice from Goldman Sachs about how to mask some of it's economic indicators and debt. This would give them the standard needed to be accepted into the euro. Apparently the commission responsible for inducting countries into the currency knew about the fraud and ignored it.

So it's all their faults really.

Oh there's definitely very little moral high-ground for anyone to occupy. Greece's entry to the Eurozone appears to have been done knowing that they were a basket-case economy. It's also worth remembering how France and Germany ran deficits that broke the terms of the Stability and Growth Pact, yet no action was taken. Oddly enough other countries weren't overlooked when they did the same. Similarly to Ireland, the money being given by the EU and IMF would merely rest in the Greek account before being sent abroad to its creditors, which would include quite a few banks in the same EU nations condemning Greece. If you loan money to a deadbeat, then you deserve to lose that money. I wouldn't go full Hayek, but I do believe that it is sometimes necessary for people to lose their shirts when they make poor decisions, and these losses should not habitually be converted to sovereign debt.

Yeah, @DawnMachine, it's not necessarily the same situation. Ireland's debt and situation were poor, but nowhere near as much debt as Greece has. Greece has definitely made some concessions. The problem is their overall behaviour is making things very difficult. The referendum, for example, is an incredibly risk. Encouraging people to say no, claiming it will strengthen the government's argument, seems to only make it more difficult to justify sending more cash their way. There's definitely plenty of blame to go around, and not all of it landing on Greece.
 
They don't have to hand Greece a windfall, but I think it's worth questioning whether the austerity policies they're calling for would be good for Greece (or indeed Europe). @PantsOfDesire mentioned that it has done Ireland good, but my understanding is that the Greek economy is much weaker overall, and cutting into pensions at a time when a quarter of the workforce is unemployed seems immensely shortsighted.

Ireland actually has an economy.

Greece's economy seems to be to sit around saying gibs me dat.
 
Holding a referendum on a highly technical issue that most of the voters won't even understand is the height of irresponsibility.

Not to mention that the campaigns have, what, mere days to organize and present their views to the voters?
 
Not to mention that the campaigns have, what, mere days to organize and present their views to the voters?

Yeah, it's a farce. I've seen some speculation on his reasons for taking this action. One possibility is that it shores-up his support at home and absolves his party of responsibility if they should have to accept a deal they vowed would never happen. Of course if that deal doesn't happen, then it's not likely the party is going to be very popular if Greece becomes a third-world nation.
 
The only reason there is a referendum is for the blame game. And this game is of tremendous importance.

A defeat of the greek government could mean a sponsored coup d'état and a civil war.

Edit: Rate me optimistic if you want, it won't change reality.
 
Last edited:
The US is not in danger of defaulting. Our debt-to-GDP ratio is still within the safe zone, our treasury yields are low and inflation is low. Where we wouldn't want to be on that score is Japan with a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200%, but even they aren't going to default.

While I agree that at this moment the US isn't in danger, its just around the corner.

The US government is borrow twice its yearly income every year and its tax base is shrinking (baby boomers are retiring in huge numbers over the next 5 years) whiles its expenses are shooting up (Medicare, Social Security and all those fun wars) to a level that is unsustainable.

As of last year almost 25% of total revenue went into Social Security (851 billions) and 18% into Defense spending (615 billions) and 7% (229 billion) went into interest payments, note that's interest and not capital debt repayment.

The US government borrowed a total of $3.5 trillions last year alone on an income of $2.8 trillions with a total debt of $13 trillions...just do some math on those numbers and if that doesn't worry you then your smarter then I.

Here's some delicious copy/pasta:

  • Social Security: Last year, 24 percent of the budget, or $851 billion, paid for Social Security, which provided monthly retirement benefits averaging $1,329 to 39.0 million retired workers in December 2014. Social Security also provided benefits to 2.3 million spouses and children of retired workers, 6.1 million surviving children and spouses of deceased workers, and 10.9 million disabled workers and their eligible dependents in December 2014.
  • Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace subsidies: Four health insurance programs -- Medicare, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Affordable Care Act marketplace subsidies -- together accounted for 24 percent of the budget in 2014, or $836 billion. Nearly two-thirds of this amount, or $511 billion, went to Medicare, which provides health coverage to around 54 million people who are over the age of 65 or have disabilities. The remainder of this category funds Medicaid and CHIP, which in a typical month provide health care or long-term care to about 70 million low-income children, parents, elderly people, and people with disabilities. Both Medicaid and CHIP require matching payments from the states.
  • Defense and international security assistance: Another 18 percent of the budget, or $615 billion, paid for defense and security-related international activities. The bulk of the spending in this category reflects the underlying costs of the Defense Department. The total also includes the cost of supporting operations in Afghanistan and other related activities, described as Overseas Contingency Operations in the budget, funding for which totaled $92 billion in 2014.
    Two other categories together account for another fifth of federal spending.
  • Safety net programs: About 11 percent of the federal budget in 2014, or $370 billion, supported programs that provide aid (other than health insurance or Social Security benefits) to individuals and families facing hardship. Spending on safety net programs declined in both nominal and real terms between 2013 and 2014 as the economy continued to improve.
  • Interest on the national debt: The federal government must make regular interest payments on the money it has borrowed to finance past deficits -- that is, on the national debt held by the public, which reached nearly $13 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2014. In 2014, these interest payments claimed $229 billion, or about 7 percent of the budget.

Ok, rant over.

On topic I don't believe the EU will let Greece default but they're not just going to forgive that debt.

But, the Greek people are the ones who voted in politicians who place the country in this position by being careless/reckless with the public funds.

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch;

you can't have low taxes, high welfare spending and rampant unionization. The money just isn't there for that and now they're run out of credit to borrow so now the Greek's and their children will have to live through austerity measure to pay for the high standard of life their parents enjoyed.

Does this sound familiar to anyone?
 
Lol you are going to blame to voters? Tell me who you would have voted for lol. Golden Dawn?

No the US is not just around the corner. It is spending way more than it can, but it's the financial world superpower. This gives it at least 10 to 20 years of continued abuse at this rhythm before it's options are gone and it will have to decide between 15% inflation and default.

When this happen, then the South will rise again.
 
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch;

Funny story about that: One of the more reckless things Greece has done is demand repayment for Greek debt that Germany incurred during WW2, which runs up to some $340 billion.

In fact, a pretty major chunk of Germany's post WW2 debt was written off by all its creditor nations.

low taxes, high welfare spending and rampant unionization

Greece's government did indeed have corruption and spending problem, but austerity just made things worse by instituting all the worst parts of austerity without leaving the breathing room for currency devaluation that would have been needed.

Shit, Greece's spending as % of GDP was lower than France, Italy and fucking Germany's for most of the 90s. Obviously expenditure by itself doesn't give the whole picture here.

Eurozone-Government-Expenditure_Levy-Institute-Interim-Report.png


Also we have several threads for catastrophizing about the US debt, please keep it to those.
 
One of my most controversial political opinion.
Are you ready?

Greece doesn't need devaluation. It needs bankruptcy. It needs to tell Europe fuck you. We're keeping the Euro but won't pay a cent. And not pay a cent of existing pension. And fire everyone.

Then, putting tax at a normal level, hire back at reduced salaries, and it could rise from thrash.
 
Lol you are going to blame to voters? Tell me who you would have voted for lol. Golden Dawn?

Not to be a fascist or something, but when a government sucks in a democracy, voters are in fact exactly the ones to blame.

One of my most controversial political opinion.
Are you ready?

Greece doesn't need devaluation. It needs bankruptcy. It needs to tell Europe fuck you. We're keeping the Euro but won't pay a cent. And not pay a cent of existing pension. And fire everyone.

I kind of sort of want to see exactly this happen, just to see what the actual result is.

I wouldn't want that if it were my country, though.

I really hate the IMF. I want to see what they'll do.
 
While I agree that at this moment the US isn't in danger, its just around the corner.

The US government is borrow twice its yearly income every year and its tax base is shrinking (baby boomers are retiring in huge numbers over the next 5 years) whiles its expenses are shooting up (Medicare, Social Security and all those fun wars) to a level that is unsustainable.

As of last year almost 25% of total revenue went into Social Security (851 billions) and 18% into Defense spending (615 billions) and 7% (229 billion) went into interest payments, note that's interest and not capital debt repayment.

The US government borrowed a total of $3.5 trillions last year alone on an income of $2.8 trillions with a total debt of $13 trillions...just do some math on those numbers and if that doesn't worry you then your smarter then I.

Here's some delicious copy/pasta:

  • Social Security: Last year, 24 percent of the budget, or $851 billion, paid for Social Security, which provided monthly retirement benefits averaging $1,329 to 39.0 million retired workers in December 2014. Social Security also provided benefits to 2.3 million spouses and children of retired workers, 6.1 million surviving children and spouses of deceased workers, and 10.9 million disabled workers and their eligible dependents in December 2014.
  • Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace subsidies: Four health insurance programs -- Medicare, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Affordable Care Act marketplace subsidies -- together accounted for 24 percent of the budget in 2014, or $836 billion. Nearly two-thirds of this amount, or $511 billion, went to Medicare, which provides health coverage to around 54 million people who are over the age of 65 or have disabilities. The remainder of this category funds Medicaid and CHIP, which in a typical month provide health care or long-term care to about 70 million low-income children, parents, elderly people, and people with disabilities. Both Medicaid and CHIP require matching payments from the states.
  • Defense and international security assistance: Another 18 percent of the budget, or $615 billion, paid for defense and security-related international activities. The bulk of the spending in this category reflects the underlying costs of the Defense Department. The total also includes the cost of supporting operations in Afghanistan and other related activities, described as Overseas Contingency Operations in the budget, funding for which totaled $92 billion in 2014.
    Two other categories together account for another fifth of federal spending.
  • Safety net programs: About 11 percent of the federal budget in 2014, or $370 billion, supported programs that provide aid (other than health insurance or Social Security benefits) to individuals and families facing hardship. Spending on safety net programs declined in both nominal and real terms between 2013 and 2014 as the economy continued to improve.
  • Interest on the national debt: The federal government must make regular interest payments on the money it has borrowed to finance past deficits -- that is, on the national debt held by the public, which reached nearly $13 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2014. In 2014, these interest payments claimed $229 billion, or about 7 percent of the budget.

I don't want to get too off topic with this, but for example you talk about Social Security and Medicare but those aren't even funded by general revenue. And when you talk about government "income" that's something that changes based on tax policy and even moreso on economic conditions. So again debt-to-GDP ratio and bond yields are more helpful indicators for thr US.

One of my most controversial political opinion.
Are you ready?

Greece doesn't need devaluation. It needs bankruptcy. It needs to tell Europe fuck you. We're keeping the Euro but won't pay a cent. And not pay a cent of existing pension. And fire everyone.

Then, putting tax at a normal level, hire back at reduced salaries, and it could rise from thrash.
That would have the same result as a bailout with austerity.
 
Last edited:
Not to be a fascist or something, but when a government sucks in a democracy, voters are in fact exactly the ones to blame.

The answer my question. What would you have done has a voter ? You can't blame them without saying what you were expecting them to do.

That would have the same result as a bailout with austerity.

A bailout would allow Greece to stay on the edge of bankrupty forever, unless you are talking of a bailout of the size of it's economy.
And austerity means absolutely jack shit in politics. I don't consider defaulting on impossible promises "austerity".
 
I don't consider defaulting on impossible promises "austerity".
What I meant was cutting public expenditures by firing all public employees and then rehiring them at lower pay would be austerity.
 
The answer my question. What would you have done has a voter ? You can't blame them without saying what you were expecting them to do.

Well, my gripe is that they elected a bunch of what are basically Communists.

It isn't about the plebiscite, which was basically rigged. The vote was basically "do you want austerity measures." Nobody is going to vote for that.
 
Disclaimer i know nothing about national fianances.

I deal quite often with private individuals who are in serious debt though.

I don't understand why greece doesn't default and revert to the drachma- yes the d would tank but that would make greek exports cheaper and make it cheaper than spain or italy to visit- they coukd undercut their eu competitors in fish exports etc and their med competitors in tourism.

Yes in the short term bankruptcy is painful but in the longterm they probably stand to gain.

But i realise countries and private individuals are quite different so im probably wrong!
 
Back
Top Bottom