Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

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Who is going to get hit the hardest?

  • North America

  • South America

  • Asia

  • Europe

  • Australia

  • Africa

  • The Middle East

  • Everyone's fucked

  • Nothing will happen

Results are only viewable after voting.
Socrates said:
And the people that do have it are accutely aware that things are going to be getting very lean soon. I'm personally having to cut back on shit as well. I can only imagine how bad it has to be for people with no savings.
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All the savings we got are in 10 year government bonds.

I think I'll buy a new pc and try to ask the local Kiwi Tech Auti... I mean Adepts how to Faraday cage it.

I need a pc anyway, it will only get more expensive. If collapse hits the fans, I'll have it wrapped and kept safe. I would prefer gold, but that is way outside my price range. If things rebound, I got a new pc before Taiwan became part of Numbah Wan. If there is a big crash, well, they'll eventually want to reverse engineer that shit.

That said, I doubt Hungary will go mad max. Even with the drought we got food enough to feed the country for winter, and we got russian gas.
The goverment's hold on the vote is cheap utility bills, or at least payable ones. Those require Russia.
 
Socrates said:
Another anecdote to add to the pile. Go to a popular restaurant once a month or so on the weekend. Usually place has a wait for a table but recently they haven't even been able to fill every table during peak hours. Have noticed it at other restaurants too. It appears the slowdown is beginning to show up on the service side of things. Anybody else noticed the same?
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I went to a local restaurant with my friend last weekend and it was busier than we have ever saw it.

Male Idiot said:
All the savings we got are in 10 year government bonds.
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Does Hungary have something like FDIC insurance for savings? If so, might be smarter to put cash in that rather than 10 year bonds, since 10 years is a while to hold up your money
 
F13 Key said:
Where are they finding these boat captains, the Exxon Valdez school of alcoholism? They may as well start putting wheels on them. And if a boat running aground at an inconvenient chokepoint is enough to cause ripples of global economic damage, the system is more of a fragile mess than imaginable.
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These freighter captains are generally from the Upstairs University of Barrel Bottom Scrapers International. Sadly it makes sense for the shipping companies not to go nuts shopping for top-tier mariners to captain their ships since the (meager) crew serving under him are the ones who typically do all the real work. On a typical trip back & forth across the pond, there isn't much work to do anyway. Navigating these rivers is usually done by either a navigator (part of the crew) or a pilot (an employee of whatever authority governs the waterway) and the captain is rarely directly involved, much less at the helm during the maneuver. Even when shit goes sideways, the captain's main job is to take the blame.

That said, this article understates the severity of the drought they're experiencing there. Under normal circumstances, the freighter likely wouldn't have run aground in the first place and even if it had, it would have been much closer to one of the shores leaving plenty of room for ships to navigate around. With the water as low as it is now, there's no room to maneuver around obstacles and so the waterway is blocked until they can tow the disabled ship out.
 
Uh....guys? Definitely don’t look into GEO Group Inc...


'Big Short' investor Michael Burry sold all but one of his stocks last quarter — after warning an epic market crash is coming​

Aug 15, 2022, 10:55 AM

  • Michael Burry of "The Big Short" sold virtually all of his US stocks last quarter.
  • Burry's Scion Asset Management held only a $3.3 million stake in Geo Group, a new filing shows.
  • Scion owned $165 million of stocks at the end of March, excluding its Apple put options.
Michael Burry, the investor of "The Big Short" fame, slashed his US stock portfolio to a single holding in the second quarter, a Securities and Exchange Commission filingshowed on Monday.

Burry's Scion Asset Management disclosed just over 500,000 shares of Geo Group, worth $3.3 million. Geo invests in private prisons and mental-health facilities and commands a market capitalization of less than $900 million.

Close followers of Burry are likely to interpret his decision to effectively liquidate his portfolio as a bad omen. The hedge-fund manager diagnosed the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things" last summer and saidowners of meme stocks and cryptocurrencies were careening toward the "mother of all crashes."

More recently, he has told investorsnot to get too excited about the recent rally in stocks, as previous downturns have seen many temporary rebounds before finding a bottom. He also said the "silliness" in markets during the height of the pandemic had returned and tweeted over the weekend that he "can't shake that silly pre-Enron, pre-9/11, pre-WorldCom feeling," referring to the euphoria that preceded the dot-com crash.

Scion's portfolio comprised 11 stocks worth $165 million at the end of March, excluding bearish put options it held against 206,000 Apple shares.

The Scion chief has taken a knife to his portfolio in the past. He pared it from 20 holdings to six in the third quarter of last year, reducing its value from $140 million to $42 million in the space of three months.

Burry rose to fame after his billion-dollar wager against the mid-2000s housing bubble was chronicled in the book and movie "The Big Short." He's also known for betting against Elon Musk's Tesla and Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation fund last year and for investing in GameStopbefore it became a meme stock.
 
"The Scion chief has taken a knife to his portfolio in the past. He pared it from 20 holdings to six in the third quarter of last year, reducing its value from $140 million to $42 million in the space of three months."

None of the articles I've seen on this so far mention that GEO was one of the six he pared it down to last year, it appears that he is just holding it while dropping the others. What's interesting to me is GEO's performance hasn't been all that great, at least not yet. A couple of the others he was in big last year were OVV and STNG, which have been doing much better in my portfolio (5% gain in GEO vs. 42% on OVV and 120% on STNG).
 
Commodore 128 said:
"The Scion chief has taken a knife to his portfolio in the past. He pared it from 20 holdings to six in the third quarter of last year, reducing its value from $140 million to $42 million in the space of three months."

None of the articles I've seen on this so far mention that GEO was one of the six he pared it down to last year, it appears that he is just holding it while dropping the others. What's interesting to me is GEO's performance hasn't been all that great, at least not yet. A couple of the others he was in big last year were OVV and STNG, which have been doing much better in my portfolio (5% gain in GEO vs. 42% on OVV and 120% on STNG).
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From a cursory search:
“In 2019, agencies of the federal government of the United States generated 53% of the company's revenues. Up until 2021 the company was designated as a real estate investment trust, at which time the board of directors elected to reclassify as a C corporation under the stated goal of reducing the company's debt.”
Things that make you go hm.
 
Hollywood Hulk Hogan said:
I went to a local restaurant with my friend last weekend and it was busier than we have ever saw it.


Does Hungary have something like FDIC insurance for savings? If so, might be smarter to put cash in that rather than 10 year bonds, since 10 years is a while to hold up your money
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Ah sorry it is 5 years. But it generates enough money to provide the barest minimum of food and shelter. Basically it is my parents', so I may not know all the details. It provides roughly 5% interest per year usually. If the state dies it goes belly up.

But than I will be benevolently liberated from my money by foreigners anyway.
 
If seas are rising, build atom power plant, desalinate that shit.

Water and salt for the internet would both be made.
 
I am very angry that you exceptional individuals are fighting about climate change, when this is a Wendy’s. I mean, global depression thread. Can you guys fight or fuck elsewhere?
 
German PPI MoM was forecasted to be .7% this month. Was .6% in July. Now 5.3%

Welcome to the long dark winter.

Edit: YoY jumped to 37%.
 
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Socrates said:
New mortgage applications have reached their lowest rate since 2000.

Article
Archive
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I know anecdotal evidence is shit at best but the subdivision signage of “new homes starting at $xxxk” are spiraling out of control when I drive to and from work, running errands, etc. It was $300k last year and now is $500k or upper $400k. I think people are wizening up to how fucked it is to compete with other prospective buyers who have cash (likely BlackRock or some other equity firm) and realizing it’s better to stay at their current home or apartment and ride it out until prices become reasonable.
 
Desu Mountain said:
If I tried to cut down a tree here I'd be arrested for destruction of city property and for running around with a deadly weapon. You need a loicense for that shit, mate.
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Chopping down trees is way too much effort to get firewood in most parts of the US that aren't in the middle of nowhere. Most metro or suburban areas will have businesses that are happy to let people haul off old pallets that can be used for firewood. Pallets are also useful for making a cabin in the wilderness after you go broke and can no longer afford rent:

Earlier this year I started regularly seeing expired temporary plates on cars when driving around and it made me wonder if lots of people are letting their car registration slip because they can't afford it. I started looking at tags on license plates when driving around and I see expired tags every time I drive somewhere now. This isn't just people that let things slip for 1 or 2 months, I regularly see tags that expired 6+ months ago. It looks like a higher number of people can't afford to register their cars this year.
 
King Vidiot said:
Chopping down trees is way too much effort to get firewood in most parts of the US that aren't in the middle of nowhere. Most metro or suburban areas will have businesses that are happy to let people haul off old pallets that can be used for firewood. Pallets are also useful for making a cabin in the wilderness after you go broke and can no longer afford rent:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1HA4zY8xCyY
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Private residences, too. You'd be surprised how much stuff you can get from people just by knocking on their door and politely asking if they want to get rid of it.
 
King Vidiot said:
Chopping down trees is way too much effort to get firewood in most parts of the US that aren't in the middle of nowhere. Most metro or suburban areas will have businesses that are happy to let people haul off old pallets that can be used for firewood. Pallets are also useful for making a cabin in the wilderness after you go broke and can no longer afford rent:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1HA4zY8xCyY
Earlier this year I started regularly seeing expired temporary plates on cars when driving around and it made me wonder if lots of people are letting their car registration slip because they can't afford it. I started looking at tags on license plates when driving around and I see expired tags every time I drive somewhere now. This isn't just people that let things slip for 1 or 2 months, I regularly see tags that expired 6+ months ago. It looks like a higher number of people can't afford to register their cars this year.
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Be careful with those pallets though, you never know what they're been used to move. There's a chance it was treated with methyl bromide if it was used internationally.
 
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