Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Kramer on the phone]

Herein the Midwest US, gas and food are up, but I guess we're doing okay when compared to people in Europe. It sucks that restaurant prices are though the roof. Even a 1 tier above fast food chicken dinner costs 15 bucks now. Dining at a nice sit down restaurant will cost you about 25-30 bucks. (It used to cost you 20 just a couple of years ago.) It's a good incentive to not be a lazyass and cook your own dinner instead of ordering DoorDash every night - not that that will stop my lazy brother from doing so and then wondering why he's broke despite working 20 hours overtime every week..

from what i've seen restaurants are struggling hard, the lower the experience the more they're getting fucked. i don't think i've seen an ihop with more than one waiter working so far this year, most fast casual has a similar fuckery. meanwhile the upscale fancy dining places like steakhouses are desperate for waiters despite already being down to 4 tables per person, but the waiters can still expect $1k+ a week working with just that in these types of resturants. ($100 a plate helps with those 25% tips)

like that one article said, the people making $150k a year are doing better than ever, but any place that doesn't cater to those types might as well be 3rd world, hiring people right off the street who won't make shit because they rely on tips and the poor won't tip. we're at the point where entry level jobs pay $20/hr here, so its no wonder tip jobs don't have the people they used to.

Realistically if the USD collapsed, your crypto won't have much value since everyone will be selling it to pay for shit. It's also going to take hit after hit as the USD collapses, meaning that if you buy $50K of it now, it very likely won't be worth $50K then (and no, it won't be worth more either). But if you buy 50K worth of gold and silver, it would be very unlikely for it to be worth less than $40K (too much inherent value) and very possible it's worth even more than $50K (especially if you bought silver since that's undervalued).

beyond that bitcoin isn't going to be worth shit if the miners cease to exist, its barely profitable to mine now, you only get 6 bitcoin for mining now, i doubt once it gets to 3 in 2024 it will be worth it for even the mining farms if there is a global depression.

You're talking to a cultist. Crypto's benefits reside in its neutral status, not beholden to any financial system or national laws and ability to simplify transactions. Absolutely none of this makes it a store of value, even if Bitcoin does have a finite amount of tokens it doesn't mean the value of these are fixed into an upward trend. As @Save the Loli points out, people will be cashing out into more immediate liquid assets when times get tough which will drive crypto into the dirt. Bitcoin and all of the shitcoins ate dirt back in Feb-March 2020 during the covid panic sell off, if anything it fell harder and faster than the regular stock market.

The only things of value is physical commodities because it can be converted into manufactured goods. Silver, Copper, Gold, and other metals store reasonably well if you take precautions, even if you don't plan on selling the bar of copper you could pound it with a hammer into a kettle or plate with some effort. In a collapse situation like Weimar Germany everything becomes localized, having the ability to buy shit in China with your internet tokens is useless because you cannot get it to you with any sort of guarantee.

thats another great point, only techy guys and lumpen types hold crypto meaning they are more likely to take a hit if the market goes to shit, its like hats in tf2. they won't be worth much to you once you lose your job, or your parents do you neet.

at least with cash enough of it is held by people that can't refuse to use it. plus as the last few years has shown crypto is more likely to be affected by the market not less like what was theorized a decade ago. if a depression happens then bitcoin will be worth as much as CS:GO items.

*coin sperging*

,only criminals use cash or coin nowadays. And even drug dealers stopped taking coins a long time ago, if our government wasn't build and designed to keep boomers happy so they can do the bidding of kikes then we would have gotten rid of every coin years ago, even just switching to quarters being the minimum would have meant a lot. it also is a psych-op too. by keeping coins in circulation you force people to have this insane idea that things are as good as they were when there was penny candy.

Its a fuck load harder to pass minimum wage increases or other necessary things to keep the poor from starving because these "people" can propose 6 cent increases like Florida did for about a decade. remember a majority of states in this country don't even have a minimum wage and rely on Joe Biden's government to tell them what the minimum is.

these faggots feel that because they could go half a mile on quarter's worth of gas we should keep pennies and nickles and dimes around.

the only thing pennies are good for is getting $5 worth and putting them in a sock to beat someone to death with. you literally can't even buy anything with a dollar now.

The China number is bullshit and doesn’t make any sense.

I challenge everyone here to prove me wrong.

"the people that keep demanding we believe the 6 gorillion whine about our numbers" -chinese 4chan

the chinks at least fudge their numbers for the good of their people, none of this "be ashamed to be the majority" faggotry of the west.

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fun fact: its the first time in global history 1q numbers trigger a decline, usually its the 4th because thats when companies are finally forced to admit they were caught with their pants down and people get fucked hard. hence the whole october decline in 2008 and 1929.

If the 1q reports are this bad, then the 4th must be dire. especially when expectations are usually so low after the holiday season that investors allow for meh quarterly reports. turns out turning on russia in march fucked everyone hard, that was all it took to find out most of these companies weren't wearing clothes at high tide.

Yeah, no way in fuck is China on a 4.8% growth rate. Especially with the current lockdowns in Shanghai and other major port hubs.

The Chinese economy is one massive house of cards that the CCP will push fake and misleading numbers constantly for. The actual meat and potato economics going on don't match up one damn bit.

you ever hear of making memes reality? if the chinese can force investors to believe it, it comes true. look at the 3GD, any country could destroy the fucker at any time and the chinks end up never being a problem ever again. but like their currency no one calls the bluff.

 

[Blobby's Murder Knife]

Sorry as a history nerd I have to say it's nonsense to try to survive on gardening and foraging in an industrial country. Because population density is far too high. Like in Europe it's like 70 people per square kilometres and 20 in North America, while foraging can sustain at most 0,5-2 persons per km².
A square kilometre of farmland can sustain up to 500 people with high calorie crops like rice, wheats, corn etc. So to say, sustain a family of 5, you would need about 50 x 50 m of land on your estate.

I don't think the point is though to completely sustain yourself from an apartment balcony, rather, you can just supplement your diet. I have an ok plot of land, but it is not good for intensive agriculture outside of herbs, potatoes, garlic, and onions. It is good for small livestock like goats, chickens, quail (which you might be able to get away with like pigeons in a city setting - they need to be caged and you can go from egg to slaughter in about 11-12 weeks. They don't make a lot of noise or have many requirements. You can slaughter them with kitchen shears in your sink. They don't even need nest boxes or anything like that. They just lay wherever they are. Chickens require coops to roost, nest boxes to lay, require way more space than quail, and take 5-6 months before they will lay. Quail lay at 8 weeks and space requirements are very minimal.). Just focus on whatever you are good at growing/raising then sell the excess. Hell, if it is just basil and arugula, focus on that.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

@Kramer on the phone

thats another great point, only techy guys and lumpen types hold crypto meaning they are more likely to take a hit if the market goes to shit, its like hats in tf2. they won't be worth much to you once you lose your job, or your parents do you neet.

at least with cash enough of it is held by people that can't refuse to use it. plus as the last few years has shown crypto is more likely to be affected by the market not less like what was theorized a decade ago. if a depression happens then bitcoin will be worth as much as CS:GO items.

Another thing I failed to point out is the likely collapse of the mining network. Energy costs are going through the roof and the price of electricity will quickly outstrip the rewards for Bitcoin mining along with other Proof-of-Work crypto. I don't buy into the cult think of the crypto people, much like libertarians; they live in Utopia, they fail to consider the rest of the world around what they fix their gaze on and assume it will perpetually stable and prosperous. That said, very few crypto have done even the slightest bit of work towards widespread adoption. Far as I know, BAT is the only crypto to integrate webhooks into its browser that allow people to transfer their crypto to another party easily. I want to be able to select some form of crypto as an option when I shop at Ebay, Amazon or wherever.

 

[AcidityLiquidity]

An interesting note is that various currencies are imploding, Japan's Yen is eating shit, Turkish Lira has been dying because of "Erdonomics" which has been accelerating its decline, the Lira has devalued nearly every month since 2014. Its absolutely insane how bad their currency is doing. Even the Euro is accelerating its decade long decline against the USD. I don't really have too much time to look around at all currencies but some of these are absolutely terrible. The further below the pink line (300 day moving average) the worse the currency is doing, some of them are in freefall mode.

JPY:
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Turkish Lira:
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Euro:
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Russian Ruble:

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Norway Krone
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South Korean Won:
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Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso seem to be stable at the moment, but a lot of these nations are just absolutely eating shit. The Russian Ruble is somehow doing very strong considering the stress upon it. Norway has a very strong hand right now because of it's sovereign wealth fund and the fact they export shit loads of oil and gas into an inflationary period when commodities are king. I don't really have time to investigate the why and how these currencies are eating shit, likely they are inflating faster than the USD would be my guess. These service economies don't appear to be doing as well as banana republics which trade in commodities, sometimes singular that float over the global inflation crisis.

I have a friend living in Japan and I asked him how things are looking over there. For the yen, they recently got a letter from their bank saying they will no longer exchange yen into foreign currency. I'm not economist but I have to imagine that is an 'oh shit' thing to do when things are already so bad.

 

[Kane Lives]

I have a friend living in Japan and I asked him how things are looking over there. For the yen, they recently got a letter from their bank saying they will no longer exchange yen into foreign currency. I'm not economist but I have to imagine that is an 'oh shit' thing to do when things are already so bad.

I never imagined I'd live to see the BOJ of all banks, to impose capital controls.

 

[Glad I couldn't help]

I never imagined I'd live to see the BOJ of all banks, to impose capital controls.

Note that there are no news reports on any Japanese capital controls. So, if there are any, they are being done on a informal basis, for now.

I suspect that any formal controls and resulting news reports will only occur once the big fish have got everything in order and they allow the plebs to absorb all the costs, as always.

 

[Never Scored]

Sorry as a history nerd I have to say it's nonsense to try to survive on gardening and foraging in an industrial country. Because population density is far too high. Like in Europe it's like 70 people per square kilometres and 20 in North America, while foraging can sustain at most 0,5-2 persons per km².
A square kilometre of farmland can sustain up to 500 people with high calorie crops like rice, wheats, corn etc. So to say, sustain a family of 5, you would need about 50 x 50 m of land on your estate.

It's not like the majority of people from dense urban areas are making it to rural areas alive. Using a crude measure of 20/square km for all of North America isn't really accurate when you're talking about the ability to forage. If we have a collapse to the point that there's no fucking food in stores, you're not going to roll up to a gas station in Chicago, fill up your Honda civic, and make a break for rural Montana to compete for food with the people already there. Like, they're not going to be loading all the people in NYC who don't own a car onto a bus for Wyoming. If you're in a big city and the shit hits the fan to the point where you can't buy food, you're likely dead pretty quickly.

 

[K-Hole]

I posted a link to this blog before, but I'll just post a link to the latest post here now:

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/05/02/the-sound-of-distant-violins/

It's a well-written and what seems to me fairly well-researched doom blog if you like that kind of thing. And I do. And so do you, or you wouldn't be reading this thread - admit it fellow doomstsers - you just want to live long enough to see the world burn! I know I do... Doom porn at its finest.

If this isn't your bag, move along, nothing to see here, but if it is, I won't spoil it for you. I provided the link now you go there and savour it, every last morsel of hopelesness and despair. I will throw out these few crumbs though. It's erudite and to the point. Like all good writing, puting in to words that which we all knew ourselves, all along, but somehow could just not find or formulate the words to say, or elucidate, or expound upon, further.

It is not just that the poor are going to go cold and hungry this winter or that some – particularly among the elderly – unable to afford external heat and lacking the calories to generate enough internally, are going to die of hypothermia. No Tory government – nor, truth be told, recent Labour ones – has been overly exercised about the hardships inflicted on the poor. But the realisation that the pent-up financial wealth of the godzillionaires and corporations at the top is about to disappear via a stagflationary collapse of the currency itself, is enough to have the bought and paid for politicians lying awake at night. And the more they come to realise that what they thought of as wealth is but a claim on future energy which no longer exists, the more their minds recoil in horror.


Ok, I lied, one more morsel of doom. The very last words:

… but it is only a matter of time.

 

[teriyakiburns]

I posted a link to this blog before, but I'll just post a link to the latest post here now:

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/05/02/the-sound-of-distant-violins/

It's a well-written and what seems to me fairly well-researched doom blog if you like that kind of thing. And I do. And so do you, or you wouldn't be reading this thread - admit it fellow doomstsers - you just want to live long enough to see the world burn! I know I do... Doom porn at its finest.

If this isn't your bag, move along, nothing to see here, but if it is, I won't spoil it for you. I provided the link now you go there and savour it, every last morsel of hopelesness and despair. I will throw out these few crumbs though. It's erudite and to the point. Like all good writing, puting in to words that which we all knew ourselves, all along, but somehow could just not find or formulate the words to say, or elucidate, or expound upon, further.

It is not just that the poor are going to go cold and hungry this winter or that some – particularly among the elderly – unable to afford external heat and lacking the calories to generate enough internally, are going to die of hypothermia. No Tory government – nor, truth be told, recent Labour ones – has been overly exercised about the hardships inflicted on the poor. But the realisation that the pent-up financial wealth of the godzillionaires and corporations at the top is about to disappear via a stagflationary collapse of the currency itself, is enough to have the bought and paid for politicians lying awake at night. And the more they come to realise that what they thought of as wealth is but a claim on future energy which no longer exists, the more their minds recoil in horror.


Ok, I lied, one more morsel of doom. The very last words:

… but it is only a matter of time.

Interesting and insightful, but there's a flaw in his thesis: peak oil. The amount of oil available for economic extraction has not ceased increasing. The reduction in actual production and consumption is artificial, entirely politically induced, and would be quickly reversed if the west gave up its obsession with "green".

 

[AncientPhosphur]

Reddit is noticing fertilizer shortages with their local landscaping

 

[Pissmaster]

View attachment 3246801

Reddit is noticing fertilizer shortages with their local landscaping

I can't wait until a desperate 350lb redditor starts chucking his lower-tier Funko Pops into a woodchipper and finds that vinyl doesn't make for a very good fertilizer

 

[Simple Moving Average]

I never imagined I'd live to see the BOJ of all banks, to impose capital controls.

Can confirm: JP capital controls are real and a bitch to get around

 

[Meat Target]

Biggest hike since the Dot Com bubble. Spread your cute little poopchutes, it's going in dry.

 

[FatalTater]

Fertilizer shortages? Teach yourself about humanure.

No really.

Urine is pretty safe and is wonderful if you need more nitrogen in your soil.

 

[Irrational Exuberance]

Fertilizer shortages? Teach yourself about humanure.

No really.

Urine is pretty safe and is wonderful if you need more nitrogen in your soil.

Then why do people always get so pissy (pun intended) when you let the dog go on their plants? Asking for a friend.

(Seriously, though - what about the uric acid content?)

 

[Ruin]

Biggest hike since the Dot Com bubble. Spread your cute little poopchutes, it's going in dry.

View attachment 3247605

So in practical terms this means what? Higher inflation?

 

[Meat Target]

So in practical terms this means what? Higher inflation?

It means the current housing bubble is about to pop.

 

[mindlessobserver]

It means the current housing bubble is about to pop.

Or the current everything bubble. Hang on to your angus

 

[Cpl. Long Dong Silver]

Or the current everything bubble. Hang on to your angus

My angus is ready

 

[K-Hole]

Interesting and insightful, but there's a flaw in his thesis: peak oil. The amount of oil available for economic extraction has not ceased increasing. The reduction in actual production and consumption is artificial, entirely politically induced, and would be quickly reversed if the west gave up its obsession with "green".

I'm not sure exactly what you are trying to say here. This is the sentence that I have the most trouble with:

The amount of oil available for economic extraction has not ceased increasing.

I respect your opinion and viewpoint, and this is not just an argumentative ploy, but could you perhaps clarify at least those few words for me? It's kind of central to my viewpoint and there's little point in arguing it if I misunderstand you.

Spoiler: Here's a little of my viewpoint

I must say that I used to lean quite heavily towards 'peak oil'. I think we both probably have read enough to have a common understanding of this phrase. But then I tended the other way. Now, I'm leaning back more and more to 'peak oil' - my original viewpoint from 20 years ago, about which I was wrong, I will admit. But only about the timeline, imho. Then again, I might be wrong about the 'timeline' again.

It's a central crux of the argument. I don't think anyone that diverges on this can even begin to have a constructive discourse. Not that it wouldn't be interesting maybe.

and would be quickly reversed if the west gave up its obsession with "green".

This statement is pretty crystal clear to me . And I do agree with you very much.

The so called 'Environmental' and Green Agenda is a farce. There might be some real blood on their hands very soon. It's not even up for debate about how Wind/Solar/Wave tech only contributes less than 10 percent to total energy requirements, and how they are given precedence politically and financially over the more traditional energy resources. Nuclear is not good, but it is necessary. More people will probably die because it wasn't implemented now than would have died if the odd reactor melted down (unlikely). That's another argument for another day.

The thing is, it takes Fossil Fuels to make the equipment for those 'alternative', 'renewable', energy resources. It takes Fossil Fuels to transport them. Yes, even Wind/Wave/Solar need pipes to homes. Fossil Fuels are requisite in their manufacture and transport to point of contact.

The Greens have led a very destructive anti-nuclear campaign, and also are now leading a very destructive anti-fossil-fuel campaign. These people are actually insane, with no grasp of mathematics, or physics or chemistry, or logic. And they aren't finished yet. But see how quickly people come around when they can't afford the latest iPhone or holiday in the Sun or extension on their home that makes them better than the Jones's.

I digress.

I guess the sticking point is how much oil we think is left in the ground. Gas/Coal too. And how easily that can be extracted without expending more energy and exergy coming in to the equation in a bad way. So to speak. I'm not an expert on this. I have a very basic understanding of the laws of thermodynamics, but the finer points escape me.

I assume you are familiar with EROI - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment

In energy economics and ecological energetics, energy return on investment (EROI), also sometimes called energy returned on energy invested (ERoEI), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to obtain that energy resource.

Again, not trying to win an argument I know little about. I know you do know a little about it. If I assume anything it is that you know more than me, hence my genuine asking of the question.

It's just that it kind of depends on the findings and statistics of people who do these studies (how much oil/coal/gas) is left in the ground. And how much one believes in those studies/statistics/findings.

You seem quite confident that there is enough oil/coal/gas left in the ground that can be extracted at a positive EROI. I'm wondering where you get that information from and why you are so confident in it. I get my information from a certain place, and even though I tend to believe it is given in good faith, I wonder if it might be wrong.

I hope you are right.

It's just that there are so many correlations from so many sources, from economics to the oil industry facts and figures (less energy use over the last few years), to population figures (greater population today than 3 years ago) to forecasts of political unrest because of shortages due to decreased energy output. I don't suppose they can all be falsified. And they all kind of point in the same direction.


I'll stop there. This is not sophistry on my part. I don't expect any answer or counter to these small points I've made. But still, I am genuinely curious as to your position.

I think that if you could clarify this sentence (as I put it at the beginning of this reply):

The amount of oil available for economic extraction has not ceased increasing.

Then that would really help me get a foothold.

I think I know what you are saying, and if that is so, then there seems to be some pretty robust arguments against that particular viewpoint. But I won't jump the gun.

I would love you to prove my viewpoint wrong. In fact I want you to. I am enticing you to. I really do respect your opinion as I have seen you talking quite a lot of sense around this subject in various posts. Again, I assume you know more than I do. I am just trying to learn.

Greater minds than ours (at least mine) have argued this particular point for several years now, and as I said earlier, even though I did change my opinion, I have swung back to my original position. Let me be clear. I don't think the oil is running out. Nor the gas or coal. But the ability to bring it out of the ground and to bring it to marketplace in a world so flummoxed by complexity in both supply chains and economic flounderings of current systems (petrodollar, ruble), is certainly causing hiccups in the taken for granted status quo.

Perhaps we are even talking abou the same thing, but just coming at it from opposite angles. Maybe not.

Does it really matter if the end result is the same? Whether there are no Fossil Fuels left, whether there is not enough profitability to bring it out of the ground to bring it to market because of political shenanigans, or whether there just isn't enough Fossil Fuel energy in the world left to bring the rest of that FF energy out of the ground. I would agree that last point is some way off, but it must come some time, like a dying man, he never wants to admit he is dying. His family certainly don't want to admit it. They have vested interests in him being alive. But at some point, basic physics takes over. Physics and Economics are common bedfellows.

I'll stop rambling here. Excuse me. If nothing else, I have perhaps given you my greater viewpoint.

Again, if you could just clarify:

The amount of oil available for economic extraction has not ceased increasing.


I might understand your greater viewpoint better.