Translation by yours truly. Original article [A] at Apollo News
The signs of the end times have become unmistakable in political Berlin these days. The assessment that Friedrich Merz simply cannot do it, that means governing, is now almost undisputed even in CDU circles. Meanwhile, only a few days before his anniversary in office, all the chancellor has left is a bunker mentality.
Merz is now largely alone. It was always the case, at least during his time as parliamentary group leader, that Merz kept many people at a distance, let hardly anyone get close to him, and had few close confidants. What was a handicap at the beginning of his chancellorship has become the fatal paralysis for his government. By now, Merz seems to have no one left whom he trusts - and apparently no one who tells him what the situation really is.
The man sitting there in the Chancellery seems completely detached and sealed off from reality. While his government is burning brightly, the great reform chancellor is still announcing this or that reform offensive, talking about initiatives and projects that have long been dead outside his own head. His orders are spoken into the wind. He may talk a great deal about budget consolidation - his finance minister is not doing it. He may talk about a major welfare-state reform - his labor minister is not doing it. Merz comes across like an operetta general: powerless and ridiculous.
Around this government, meanwhile, there is a mood reminiscent of the autumn days two years ago - when the traffic-light coalition [SPD, Greens, FDP] collapsed. It is as if vultures were circling over the capital city. There is a tension in the air that might not discharge at all, or might do so at lightning speed. From the background noise of disillusioned, frustrated Union representatives, voices such as that of Baron von Stetten now stand out, openly talking about the end of the coalition.
That people in Berlin generally believe this coalition will sooner or later break apart is an open secret. But the fact that it is now being said so publicly is a writing on the wall. The days of this coalition really do seem numbered. The basic mood, at least in the CDU: just get out of there.
It is a headless exit mood, for which Christian von Stetten merely provides a brief outlet before it closes again. There is no real strategy for exiting the coalition - Friedrich Merz has prevented that with his ever more frenzied declarations against the AfD and in favor of governing with the SPD. In January 2025, Merz would still have had the strategic upper hand regarding cooperation opportunities with the AfD. Now he is trapped: The AfD is pulling away in the polls and is far ahead of the Union.
For the CDU, new elections are therefore impossible purely from the standpoint of power politics - never would it run as the junior partner of that party, Christian Democratic pride forbids it. It would tear the party apart anyway. And the familiar, toxic alternative to the AfD, a government with left-wing parties, would likely only add the Greens to the boat after new elections, compared with the current black-red coalition [CDU/CSU and SPD].
On top of that: Behind the scenes, it is considered certain that Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier would not approve new elections at all. Already in 2017, after the failure of the Jamaica negotiations [CDU/CSU, Greens, FDP], it was the federal president who, with considerable pressure on Martin Schulz, who had previously raged furiously against renewing it, pushed through the grand coalition of the time.
Now, too, the federal president is reportedly unwilling to open the path to new elections. It also runs counter to his political line: With his combative speech in November of last year, Steinmeier essentially declared a state-political war against the AfD. It is inconceivable that this man would grant the AfD the opportunity to become the strongest party in snap elections.
Table.Media writes, citing government circles, that the federal president recently made this clear in a conversation at Bellevue Palace as well: A quick path to new elections in the event this coalition fails would not be in the federal president's interest. Steinmeier is said to have pointed to majorities in the so-called political center, which allegedly still exist - and which would then simply have to be used.
On Wednesday evening, Bild published a seismograph of the mood in the Chancellery and inside the coalition. The picture the newspaper paints, citing CDU and coalition circles, is devastating - an earthquake. And at the center stands the chancellor himself. Merz allows himself to be taken for a ride by the SPD and especially by Lars Klingbeil - his notorious fickleness. Merz is said to have a tendency to adopt whatever opinion he last heard.
Since the beginning of this government, really already during the election campaign, this fickleness has become a strategic problem. People in the Union still shudder when they think of the Merz who, in November 2024, ruled out "accidental majorities" with the AfD, then in January 2025 practically sought such majorities with the AfD, only to fundamentally rule them out again afterward.
Friedrich Merz likes to tell every room what that room wants to hear, complain those in the CDU who feel particularly deceived by him. The other side of the coin seems to be: Merz always believes and does what the last room just told him. The chancellor's confidants and party friends therefore tried to shield him deliberately before important press appearances or speeches - so that no one could put some left-wing flea in his ear. But as mentioned, he no longer has many confidants and friends.
The chancellor seems finished politically, but also personally. At the beginning of the week, Union lawmakers told Stern about a bloodless Merz appearance at a meeting of the parliamentary group leadership. During his visit on Monday, Merz reportedly seemed pale, empty, and powerless. Once again, the chancellor spoke about the difficult global political situation and indulged in self-pity - feeling sorry for himself that hardly any German chancellor had ever had it as hard as he has. [there actually was an article publication in the mainstream press - not even joking - of Merz announcing that no other chancellor has ever had it as hard as he has]
A new scapegoat that Merz and others have found for the government disaster is Stefan Kornelius, the government spokesman. He is not a well-integrated part of the Merz team, and coordination between the Federal Press Office and, for example, the Union parliamentary group does not work. He has indeed not shown a sure hand in office. Take, for instance, the disastrous Spiegel interview in which the chancellor's lachrymose line about having it harder than anyone before him in office became the headline. On the cover of the print magazine, meanwhile, the sentence appeared: “I can indeed get better at that.” Catastrophic communication, say not only CDU/CSU representatives.
But it is the same as always when people search for scapegoats: They never hunt the truly responsible. And in the end, the person responsible for the situation is this federal chancellor, and this federal chancellor alone. The criticism of Kornelius may be justified - but even the best communication cannot replace good politics.
From the SPD, there was unfortunately never any honest cooperation on reforms to be expected from the start. And that is exactly how it has turned out. There is no SPD minister or politician of rank and name who has not already blocked a reform. And the SPD also intends to take a proper saw to Warken's healthcare reform during the parliamentary process.
Bärbel Bas is minister of labor and social affairs, and on top of that, federal commissioner for saying no. She has mostly made a name for herself by calling reform proposals “bullshit” and preemptively ruling out all kinds of things. The reform of the welfare state was referred to a commission, the report of that commission was then apparently buried deep in a drawer at the beginning of the year. And then, in the middle of a historic economic crisis, Bärbel Bas decided she had to play the red workers' leader as well - and declared that she wanted to “fight” employers. [also true, there is BIG sentiment against employers coming from politics currently]
Lars Klingbeil seems to have made it his side job from the very beginning to humiliate Friedrich Merz regularly. And he is very successful at it. Only recently, he blabbed about internal meetings at Villa Borsig, saying that Merz had shouted at him, cast himself as the steadfast Social Democrat, and publicly humiliated the chancellor yet again. When it comes to continued wage payments during illness or May Day as a public holiday, Klingbeil said publicly at a party event, he is happy to be shouted at.
Goodwill toward Merz and the CDU - that is in short supply in the SPD. But the chancellor, trapped in his narratives, is at the mercy of these people. Friedrich Merz has maneuvered himself into a politically hopeless situation. His total commitment to the firewall [against cooperation with the AfD] and his almost blind, indeed criminally naive, basic trust in the SPD have brought him, his party, and therefore the whole country into a bind that, from his perspective, cannot be solved at all.
Looking back on this chancellorship, Friedrich Merz's historically squandered opportunity will probably have been that he already had an alternative with other majorities within reach and could have used it - only to then place himself in Social Democratic captivity. He will not get out of this political hostage situation alive.
And so, the emergency operations on the open heart of this coalition continue. Late in the evening, crisis meetings take place. Though it is not entirely clear whether they are officially called that. The only undisputed fact is that they are happening. In the Chancellery, the word “vote of confidence” is circulating, not for the first time, but this time vehemently. Already at the end of last year, during the major pensions dispute within the CDU, this option had been seriously put on the table. Before last week's unloved agreement on the fuel discount, which was once again marked by contradictions and conflict, it was reportedly seriously discussed again.
These are supposed to be tests of strength after which the coalition still stands. Reinforcements of one's own power. But the chancellor, who already had to survive his election in two ballots, would be well advised not to let it come to such tests.
Perhaps the coalition can pull itself together one more time. Until the next acute crisis, that is. But the permanent crisis remains the coalition itself - embodied above all in the figure of an incapable, overwhelmed federal chancellor who is not equal to his office. At this point, nobody still believes in a good continuation or a good end for this government. Not even Friedrich Merz himself, not really.
At the beginning of the week, a journalist asked him, in view of the approaching one-year anniversary of this coalition, whether the chancellor believed the black-red coalition would last the full legislative term, that is the remaining three years. “Well, no one can guarantee anything”, he said. A rare breakthrough of reality into his head.
End-times mood
The government has failed on its own terms: Now the mood is turning. The chancellor is losing control - it is the endgame of Chancellor Merz.
The government is in flames - and Friedrich Merz is losing control. The only big question left is: How do we get out of this government? In Berlin, an end-times mood has suddenly taken hold.The signs of the end times have become unmistakable in political Berlin these days. The assessment that Friedrich Merz simply cannot do it, that means governing, is now almost undisputed even in CDU circles. Meanwhile, only a few days before his anniversary in office, all the chancellor has left is a bunker mentality.
Merz is now largely alone. It was always the case, at least during his time as parliamentary group leader, that Merz kept many people at a distance, let hardly anyone get close to him, and had few close confidants. What was a handicap at the beginning of his chancellorship has become the fatal paralysis for his government. By now, Merz seems to have no one left whom he trusts - and apparently no one who tells him what the situation really is.
The man sitting there in the Chancellery seems completely detached and sealed off from reality. While his government is burning brightly, the great reform chancellor is still announcing this or that reform offensive, talking about initiatives and projects that have long been dead outside his own head. His orders are spoken into the wind. He may talk a great deal about budget consolidation - his finance minister is not doing it. He may talk about a major welfare-state reform - his labor minister is not doing it. Merz comes across like an operetta general: powerless and ridiculous.
Around this government, meanwhile, there is a mood reminiscent of the autumn days two years ago - when the traffic-light coalition [SPD, Greens, FDP] collapsed. It is as if vultures were circling over the capital city. There is a tension in the air that might not discharge at all, or might do so at lightning speed. From the background noise of disillusioned, frustrated Union representatives, voices such as that of Baron von Stetten now stand out, openly talking about the end of the coalition.
That people in Berlin generally believe this coalition will sooner or later break apart is an open secret. But the fact that it is now being said so publicly is a writing on the wall. The days of this coalition really do seem numbered. The basic mood, at least in the CDU: just get out of there.
It is a headless exit mood, for which Christian von Stetten merely provides a brief outlet before it closes again. There is no real strategy for exiting the coalition - Friedrich Merz has prevented that with his ever more frenzied declarations against the AfD and in favor of governing with the SPD. In January 2025, Merz would still have had the strategic upper hand regarding cooperation opportunities with the AfD. Now he is trapped: The AfD is pulling away in the polls and is far ahead of the Union.
For the CDU, new elections are therefore impossible purely from the standpoint of power politics - never would it run as the junior partner of that party, Christian Democratic pride forbids it. It would tear the party apart anyway. And the familiar, toxic alternative to the AfD, a government with left-wing parties, would likely only add the Greens to the boat after new elections, compared with the current black-red coalition [CDU/CSU and SPD].
On top of that: Behind the scenes, it is considered certain that Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier would not approve new elections at all. Already in 2017, after the failure of the Jamaica negotiations [CDU/CSU, Greens, FDP], it was the federal president who, with considerable pressure on Martin Schulz, who had previously raged furiously against renewing it, pushed through the grand coalition of the time.
Now, too, the federal president is reportedly unwilling to open the path to new elections. It also runs counter to his political line: With his combative speech in November of last year, Steinmeier essentially declared a state-political war against the AfD. It is inconceivable that this man would grant the AfD the opportunity to become the strongest party in snap elections.
Table.Media writes, citing government circles, that the federal president recently made this clear in a conversation at Bellevue Palace as well: A quick path to new elections in the event this coalition fails would not be in the federal president's interest. Steinmeier is said to have pointed to majorities in the so-called political center, which allegedly still exist - and which would then simply have to be used.
The coalition's biggest problem: the can't-do chancellor
As unclear as the view into the future may be, the diagnosis is clear: Merz cannot do it. The future cannot belong to him. It is above all the chancellor's personal inadequacies that define the image of this government - both in the perception of the politicians involved and in that of the public.On Wednesday evening, Bild published a seismograph of the mood in the Chancellery and inside the coalition. The picture the newspaper paints, citing CDU and coalition circles, is devastating - an earthquake. And at the center stands the chancellor himself. Merz allows himself to be taken for a ride by the SPD and especially by Lars Klingbeil - his notorious fickleness. Merz is said to have a tendency to adopt whatever opinion he last heard.
Since the beginning of this government, really already during the election campaign, this fickleness has become a strategic problem. People in the Union still shudder when they think of the Merz who, in November 2024, ruled out "accidental majorities" with the AfD, then in January 2025 practically sought such majorities with the AfD, only to fundamentally rule them out again afterward.
Friedrich Merz likes to tell every room what that room wants to hear, complain those in the CDU who feel particularly deceived by him. The other side of the coin seems to be: Merz always believes and does what the last room just told him. The chancellor's confidants and party friends therefore tried to shield him deliberately before important press appearances or speeches - so that no one could put some left-wing flea in his ear. But as mentioned, he no longer has many confidants and friends.
The chancellor seems finished politically, but also personally. At the beginning of the week, Union lawmakers told Stern about a bloodless Merz appearance at a meeting of the parliamentary group leadership. During his visit on Monday, Merz reportedly seemed pale, empty, and powerless. Once again, the chancellor spoke about the difficult global political situation and indulged in self-pity - feeling sorry for himself that hardly any German chancellor had ever had it as hard as he has. [there actually was an article publication in the mainstream press - not even joking - of Merz announcing that no other chancellor has ever had it as hard as he has]
A new scapegoat that Merz and others have found for the government disaster is Stefan Kornelius, the government spokesman. He is not a well-integrated part of the Merz team, and coordination between the Federal Press Office and, for example, the Union parliamentary group does not work. He has indeed not shown a sure hand in office. Take, for instance, the disastrous Spiegel interview in which the chancellor's lachrymose line about having it harder than anyone before him in office became the headline. On the cover of the print magazine, meanwhile, the sentence appeared: “I can indeed get better at that.” Catastrophic communication, say not only CDU/CSU representatives.
But it is the same as always when people search for scapegoats: They never hunt the truly responsible. And in the end, the person responsible for the situation is this federal chancellor, and this federal chancellor alone. The criticism of Kornelius may be justified - but even the best communication cannot replace good politics.
Reforms as stillbirths - thanks to the SPD midwife
The only truly tangible reform that his coalition has initiated in a year - the reform of the healthcare system and health insurers - is already threatening to become a bomb for public opinion with proposals such as abolishing the free co-insurance of spouses. But at least, one has to say, a minister there is doing anything at all. All other reform plans, chiefly those concerning the labor market and consolidation of the federal budget, are largely fizzling out.From the SPD, there was unfortunately never any honest cooperation on reforms to be expected from the start. And that is exactly how it has turned out. There is no SPD minister or politician of rank and name who has not already blocked a reform. And the SPD also intends to take a proper saw to Warken's healthcare reform during the parliamentary process.
Bärbel Bas is minister of labor and social affairs, and on top of that, federal commissioner for saying no. She has mostly made a name for herself by calling reform proposals “bullshit” and preemptively ruling out all kinds of things. The reform of the welfare state was referred to a commission, the report of that commission was then apparently buried deep in a drawer at the beginning of the year. And then, in the middle of a historic economic crisis, Bärbel Bas decided she had to play the red workers' leader as well - and declared that she wanted to “fight” employers. [also true, there is BIG sentiment against employers coming from politics currently]
Lars Klingbeil seems to have made it his side job from the very beginning to humiliate Friedrich Merz regularly. And he is very successful at it. Only recently, he blabbed about internal meetings at Villa Borsig, saying that Merz had shouted at him, cast himself as the steadfast Social Democrat, and publicly humiliated the chancellor yet again. When it comes to continued wage payments during illness or May Day as a public holiday, Klingbeil said publicly at a party event, he is happy to be shouted at.
Goodwill toward Merz and the CDU - that is in short supply in the SPD. But the chancellor, trapped in his narratives, is at the mercy of these people. Friedrich Merz has maneuvered himself into a politically hopeless situation. His total commitment to the firewall [against cooperation with the AfD] and his almost blind, indeed criminally naive, basic trust in the SPD have brought him, his party, and therefore the whole country into a bind that, from his perspective, cannot be solved at all.
Looking back on this chancellorship, Friedrich Merz's historically squandered opportunity will probably have been that he already had an alternative with other majorities within reach and could have used it - only to then place himself in Social Democratic captivity. He will not get out of this political hostage situation alive.
And so, the emergency operations on the open heart of this coalition continue. Late in the evening, crisis meetings take place. Though it is not entirely clear whether they are officially called that. The only undisputed fact is that they are happening. In the Chancellery, the word “vote of confidence” is circulating, not for the first time, but this time vehemently. Already at the end of last year, during the major pensions dispute within the CDU, this option had been seriously put on the table. Before last week's unloved agreement on the fuel discount, which was once again marked by contradictions and conflict, it was reportedly seriously discussed again.
These are supposed to be tests of strength after which the coalition still stands. Reinforcements of one's own power. But the chancellor, who already had to survive his election in two ballots, would be well advised not to let it come to such tests.
Perhaps the coalition can pull itself together one more time. Until the next acute crisis, that is. But the permanent crisis remains the coalition itself - embodied above all in the figure of an incapable, overwhelmed federal chancellor who is not equal to his office. At this point, nobody still believes in a good continuation or a good end for this government. Not even Friedrich Merz himself, not really.
At the beginning of the week, a journalist asked him, in view of the approaching one-year anniversary of this coalition, whether the chancellor believed the black-red coalition would last the full legislative term, that is the remaining three years. “Well, no one can guarantee anything”, he said. A rare breakthrough of reality into his head.
