Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

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The great thing about this is that if it does happen on the 15th then everyone will be claiming that this is the most amazing thing ever. If it happens a day or two later, most will say that it was basically right and thus pretty much equally impressive. If it's a month later around half will say that it would've even been closer is XYZ crazy thing didn't happen out of the blue. Then if it doesn't happen for a year or more then everyone will forget anyway although some will try to do an AI version of "The Simpsons Predicted [Thing]."
I'm unironically holding off anything till the end of the month. Was thinking of doing a week, but that's the 22nd and February is already short, so what's one more. If it's wrong, I lose nothing, if it's right; well, gonna have to see how that goes.
 
I'm unironically holding off anything till the end of the month. Was thinking of doing a week, but that's the 22nd and February is already short, so what's one more. If it's wrong, I lose nothing, if it's right; well, gonna have to see how that goes.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be contrarian for the sake of it or anything regarding the AI thing, it was just a passing thought that I had regarding it lol. I'm doing something similar to you though, sticking to my plan to not get into anything until around the beginning of April. Should another black swan type event occur, or at least something very notable, between then and now I may dip my toes in to try to buy a dip depending on how I feel about my own situation.
 
Heh just my humble opinion so here it goes.

Americans struggling to make car payments is highest since Great Recession​

Car repossessions grow as Americans still struggle with high car prices and inflation​

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Again. This is again the failures of Generation FAIL. Again and again and again I have seen this shit down on overspending. Short term Gratification. Short Term Results.

And the problem is you can show them and tell them that you should save your money and work as hard as you can in your youth so you can live well when you get older. And I'm meaning in their 40's. You are plenty young in your 40's and can still put in the work in the 50's.

But they get themselves in debt in things they can not normally write off on their taxes.

A car is not a home and yet there are people out there that must have their tricked out SUV/EV/TRUCK/etc. Be in 7 years in Debt for that expensive item that depreciates in value over time.

These are the people I gave up on. There is just no use in talking to them.


Welp I just got a fascinating letter. My lender is offering a refinance already. After 1 year because my homes value shot up 20%. Pwetty Pwease agree to pay market rate on your mortgage payment, and we'll give you the 20% appreciation in cash!

Yikes. I could do alot with that money....but it would also mean giving up my sexy 2.58% fixed mortgage for whatever its at now lol. At the same time though, if housing values tank I may feel pretty silly not taking em up on it. It would literally wipe out all of my debts with tens of thousands left over.
First of all that is a nice mortgage rate and IMHO I would not trade that in for anything.
Secondly about homes and the appending crash if any.

IMHO at this time period I do not think it is going to happen. Yes Housing prices are going to continue to go downward but not drop like a rock short term. It is going to be gradual thing.

As far as the financial Market is concerned, IMHO it is getting really weird and not in a good way. Right now I can't get a comfortable read on things and had to forgo on buying additional property because of what is going on overall on the market.

Right now I'm waiting on what the Feds are doing and to be honest they have done a terrible job prolonging this economic problem.


The second thing is that there is so much distrust with the government and that is another big problem. And because of this there are a lot of conspiracies floating out there that one way or another affects the markets. I'm going to throw out some interesting videos. You get get a feeling of the mood of people these days.

Video #1. Clown Roasts Austin Leaders Due To Botched Response To Storm That Left People Without Power For Days.


The next on is how the Woke in our government tries to pull off the usual salad word games to trap people.


This last one is interesting but unfortunately it does make sense since I have seen the dark side of things.


Now tying this all in.

The mood out here in my region is one of wariness. Of being Tense of things. Of bitching and griping of not having the things like before.

We have become to intertwined through the internet of things that if someone important sneezes it might effect the stock market the next day.

Everything the government has said about inflation is down is IMHO mostly market speak. IMHO the underlying problems are still there.

3 years ago I stated to start saving money and create a pantry for food that you needed to stock up on. I emphasis this more when the CEO of Kraft Goods stated his concerns about the market

Here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58847275

And in 2022

Well, I hate to say this but fast food is 30% to 80% more expensive than it was in Jan 1 2020.

Your basic loaf of Cheap Bread from Wally World has gone up 67% since Jan 2022. I'm loading up on my basic spices. Salt. Pepper. Powdered Garlic and Onion as they are still cheap enough to get and store away.

Same goes with Cheap laundry soap.

But Secondly about the egg problem, I help raise some chickens with some of my relatives. During the years I've seen/heard some questionable business ethics from corporations.

From all of the information floating around of late so... I'm going to have to agree that there is just more than an egg shortage than all due to disease. I think there is some truth to some of the conspiracy issues on this as I've dealt with Commodities. Food items are commodities. They can be controlled and manipulated just like anything else.

Like Lumber... They made their massive profits off of a man made crisis and exploited that crisis to a point of hundreds of billions of dollars were to be made.

If you have forgotten in 2021, 7/16" of an inch of cheap ass OSB 4' x 8' sheet of plywood @ Home Depot was $69.95 70 dollars for a dumb ass sheet of glued wood chips.

Now it goes for $12.95. Before the 2020 Elections it was 8.95 so yes inflation factored we are back to normal by golly. Let just scalp/market manipulate something else.

Like 16/32 bit video game cartridges, because the fucking failures want to remember their teens when video games were all about fun.

And of course the same type of assholes from Generation FAIL will have to speculate EVERYTHING to a point where it becomes UN-FUN.

Anyway you get the idea.

Because of the internet of things, we are so tied into information. So much information that there is chaff of questionable material being floated around. To the point of effecting everything we do.

I'm holding back a few weeks because of all of the Market Chaff that is going on right now.
When the Fed chair makes his comments and how much he is going to raise the rate that will help decide with what to do with some of my resources on hand to invest..

Sorry if this is a long one but there is some strange things going on and again my region people are stressed out on Food Prices.

And again. I have to go to KF to get information to sort things out because out in the Liberal Media and hearing their sound bytes...

You are not going to get the truth.
 
Yesterday was a 2% down day across the board, it is hard to trade controlled flat line down. Quantitative Tightening has been going on for almost a year and the fed really doesn't make that info easily available. Its under a 100 billion a month they removing from the balance sheet, but from autistic feeling from something I watched in the past they do it after the 15th every month. Now I thought QT was morguage backed securities being unloaded from the balance sheet, and the fed is forbidden from owning stocks .... but every time the market goes down in a controlled slide like yesterday could it be the fed doing QT?

If this is above your head don't worry its above mine but does any one else have a thought on my sperging?
 
It will drive you insane because a straight line looks like manipulation, but a sudden jump also looks like manipulation. My only idea is that it's safe to believe that both a straight line and a sudden jump could be random. In other words if you watch the graph long enough, eventually you will see both patterns not due to manipulation. But I'm only talking about the big indexes and really only the non-retarded ones (Dow is shit).

If you look at the consoomer mainstream media, you will see they always try to explain market movement. It's like a hobby of mine to see what kind of story they cook up. I ask myself "is this really the reason?" A lot of the time I don't know. But I know one thing. People who realize the Fed is just going to keep tightening are making bank on days that aren't like yesterday.
 
Well, on a lark I just opened one of those "You are preapproved" letters I get in the mail every god damn week. Merciful jesus however, they actually were offering a decent deal, and happily handed me over a few thousands dollars after I had punched some numerals online.

I don't know how I feel about this. Are the banks really just giving out credit accounts like this? Either they are just handing out bags of cash, or they know so much about me at this point they know I am good for it even at a lower interest rate. wtf. Either way, the 5,000 dollars I had to put on my car repair credit card last october is now paid off with a lower interest rate in replacement. Even considering the origination fee. (Damn you, Ecosmart fuel system and potholes)
 
Reminds me of card churning. Also spam. If you pay off the card every month then you weren't who they were hoping would sign up. But they only need like one in one thousand to sign up and leave a balance on the card to pay for the whole campaign.
 
A part of me sort of understands it. Unsecured debt is like any product. You win by selling it below what the competition is. I suppose this particular bank noticed I didn't just dump 5,000 dollars on the card and was just making monthly payments at the current interest rate on time and went "huh", we could have some of that.

The other part of me was disturbed by how easily several thousand dollars just appeared in my bank account.
 
My favorite thing about modern day credit cards is the 1% cash back scam. Most of these cards have an APR of greater than 12%. So for a 24% card if you carry a balance for only a month you are down 1%.
All this stuff is on auto pay, though. Are they just banking that enough people will struggle to pay it off properly and get into a hole at 20+% interest?
 
I don't know how I feel about this. Are the banks really just giving out credit accounts like this? Either they are just handing out bags of cash, or they know so much about me at this point they know I am good for it even at a lower interest rate. wtf.
Thanks to everyone selling your data, banks are now really good at estimating your monthly income and expenses.

Basically what happened is that they soft pulled your credit and noticed you had a balance on your card and their data indicated it wasn't going to be a problem with your monthly income. So they offer you a signature loan so you can pay that off and then they get the interest instead. It's a win-win, really.
 
Second biggest Bank Failure just happened.
silicon valley bank
 
Second biggest Bank Failure just happened.
silicon valley bank
So apparently what happened with SVB is their primary accounts were held by venture capital start ups. However, Venture Capital is drying up in Silicon Valley, so deposits have slowed down. Which is a problem because like most banks, they don't actually keep on hand the money they SAY is in each account. In order to backstop this, they use Treasury Bonds. You know, that thing I was really REALLY worried about in the OP.

The thing is, due to Fed Interest rate hikes, the value of the Bonds is dropping in resale value. But in order to make good on their excess outflow to inflow ratio, the bank was forced to sell those Bonds anyway. At a Loss. It rapidly became unsustainable, and the moment depositors smelled blood a bank run started and killed SVB in a day.

Its too soon to say if this is dead canary in the coal mine, but what happened to SVB is eerily similar to my past raised concerns about the bond market and bank debt securitization.
 
Its too soon to say if this is dead canary in the coal mine, but what happened to SVB is eerily similar to my past raised concerns about the bond market and bank debt securitization.
My guess is that either the US/China pull a fast one on Japan/India/Arab oil states (They already did it to the EU/Russia via Ukraine) to try and force the capital to flee to the respective country before we get the geriatric guntdown of the ages between two countries with extremely large debt-to-gdp ratios over Taiwan's semiconductors.

Pick your poison. Fucked 10 ways from sunday demographics with manufacturing versus large resource and agricultural state with niggers. I'll take the nuke please.
 
My guess is that either the US/China pull a fast one on Japan/India/Arab oil states (They already did it to the EU/Russia via Ukraine) to try and force the capital to flee to the respective country before we get the geriatric guntdown of the ages between two countries with extremely large debt-to-gdp ratios over Taiwan's semiconductors.

Pick your poison. Fucked 10 ways from sunday demographics with manufacturing versus large resource and agricultural state with niggers. I'll take the nuke please.
I dared to watching some the CNBC and MSNBC coverage of this, and I am deeply concerned. All the faces were absolutely adamant we should take heart that the Goverment acted swiftly and decisively to tackle the issue. That sort of commentary is what I would expect from USSR State TV when addressing an industrial accident at Pripyat. FFS, they even waved non descript official papers above their heads.

 
I dared to watching some the CNBC and MSNBC coverage of this, and I am deeply concerned. All the faces were absolutely adamant we should take heart that the Goverment acted swiftly and decisively to tackle the issue. That sort of commentary is what I would expect from USSR State TV when addressing an industrial accident at Pripyat. FFS, they even waved non descript official papers above their heads.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=SK6h1k0pGxc
The issue with this is I'm not sure that private companies or individuals could do anything. Literally too big to fail so big daddy guberment is the only option. My bet is that it'll be worse than 08' given that so many people are trying to retire off of IT bubble stocks.

Like clockwork the debt ceiling is gonna be raised....
WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged members of the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday to raise the federal debt ceiling without conditions, warning that a default on U.S. debt would cause "economic and financial collapse."

Yellen, in budget testimony before the Republican-controlled House Ways and Means Committee, said that failure to increase the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap would threaten the economic progress that the U.S. has made since the COVID-19 pandemic.

@Puff do you have any thoughts on this? Sounds like GM is in big trouble (again).
DETROIT – General Motors will offer voluntary buyouts to a “majority” of its 58,000 U.S. white-collar employees, as it aims to cut $2 billion in structural costs over the next two years, according to a letter sent to workers Thursday from CEO Mary Barra.

The “Voluntary Separation Program,” or VSP, will be offered to all U.S. salaried employees who have spent five or more years at the company as of June 30. Outside of the U.S., the automaker will offer buyouts to executives with at least two years of time at the company.
 
@Puff do you have any thoughts on this? Sounds like GM is in big trouble (again).
I have no fucking clue how I didn't already hear about this. This is "we're totally fucked" behavior, but the auto companies are much like the tech companies in that they're made up of well over half dead weight so might be a legit fat trimming. I have no idea how many people usually take these things. If they don't get what they want out of it, the next step is laying off "contract" (hourly, entry level white collar) NBU guys, then UAW boys, then finally the white collar salaries they offered the buyout too.
The companies are also prematurely cutting emissions crews even when American markets will be at least 50% conventional for another decade.
On the blue collar side, watch out for UAW strikes. One was narrowly avoided at a few facilities last month. I think they're just looking for an excuse. I think it's a contract year too.

Ford and GM overhired during the pandemic... It seems the last few years they're either in a mass hiring or a layoff of some sort.
 
The issue with this is I'm not sure that private companies or individuals could do anything. Literally too big to fail so big daddy guberment is the only option. My bet is that it'll be worse than 08' given that so many people are trying to retire off of IT bubble stocks.
Except the government CANT bail them out. Not without triggering hyper inflation. The Fed is trying to suck money OUT of the Financial system right now. There is no stimulus to be had. There is no interest rate to cut. There are no dollars to be printed. Even with interest rate rises we are flirting with double digit inflation. Another 2008 style bailout will be the end.

Never mind bonds being worth less. They will WORTHLESS because the US government would not be able to make the interest rate payments on treasury notes denominated in a currency inflating at 15%+. The Fed would have to do a Volker hard break. But that would also crash the economy and force more banks into a similar position as SVB.

Am I wrong here?
 
Except the government CANT bail them out. Not without triggering hyper inflation. The Fed is trying to suck money OUT of the Financial system right now. There is no stimulus to be had. There is no interest rate to cut. There are no dollars to be printed. Even with interest rate rises we are flirting with double digit inflation. Another 2008 style bailout will be the end.

Never mind bonds being worth less. They will WORTHLESS because the US government would not be able to make the interest rate payments on treasury notes denominated in a currency inflating at 15%+. The Fed would have to do a Volker hard break. But that would also crash the economy and force more banks into a similar position as SVB.

Am I wrong here?
You're not, under normal circumstances the only way out is government intervention at this stage (because it literally becomes impossible for private citizens to intervene on this magnitude). There's really only a few ways out of this that is palpable and that's a major stretch:
1) Re-denomination of the currency. Would go as well as you would expect.
2) World War. After all, ruling class debts are forgiven, and will only be only dimly remember after the nightmarish storm is over if you win.
3) Some sort of voodoo black magic where the feds go sacrifice children or something to create an entirely new mechanism that makes no sense to anyone.
4) Something similar to the gold confiscation of FDR. I suspect this may be the most likely.

Edit: What about stock/401K/IRA confiscation?
 
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