Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
With respect to Crypto its going to be hard upward correction. The rumors of Gemini, Coinbase and Binances imminent deaths were premature. We also have the Shanghai update that will unlock staked Ethereum coming in February.
If you didn't buy ANKR when it was literally 1 cent a token you are not going to make it.
Beyond that, this entire economy is fiddling as the city burns. Make what money you can and get out.
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
If anyone wants any indicators for China, the unemployment rate for China is hovering around 20% last I heard (Late Dec).
Unemployment rate of Bachelor's degrees in China that aren't the big schools is about 30-55% from what I've been told. I wonder what the real numbers are for the US and China...
That being said, incoming US gov shutdown coming? Personally I think not since there ought to be enough squishy republicucks to vote YES on any spending bill in the house.
www.zerohedge.com
Unemployment rate of Bachelor's degrees in China that aren't the big schools is about 30-55% from what I've been told. I wonder what the real numbers are for the US and China...
That being said, incoming US gov shutdown coming? Personally I think not since there ought to be enough squishy republicucks to vote YES on any spending bill in the house.
House Republicans Prepare To Execute Emergency Strategy For Breaching Debt Limit | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
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- Sep 29, 2022
Amazon's grocery business is doing really badly to the point where they might scuttle the entire operation (maybe not WFM but it's not going great). Announcement of job cuts are going to be tomorrow or Wednesday.
vern
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 25, 2018
I did get an email last week on the 10th about Gemini terminating the Master Loan Agreement between it users and Genesis. Apparently this was supposed to help return the assets lost from the earn program, but 2 days later on the 12th they got hit with a SEC action so might still be a bit before they are in the clear.
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- Jul 18, 2017
When the generic dozen WIC approved eggs are going for six fucking dollars and a loaf of bread costs four, ain't nobody got money for delivery. I expect the knock on effect to really hit the Restaurant economy. Their prices are always sticky, which means this level of inflation in food supply is unsustainable for their business model.
If Waffle House for example does not seriously jack up its prices in response to the obscene cost of eggs and milk, they are fucked. But if they do, they are still fucked because people ain't gonna pay 10 dollars for a plate of scrambled eggs and toast. The frog needs to be boiled slowly for their customers. Like how Mcdonald's went from their Dollar Menu to the 3.50 meal deals. Its still the same 1 dollar cheese burger and 1 dollar fry. Except both of them are now 1.75. I'm honestly considering buying stock in McDonalds right now for this reason. Not only are they being cute and clever with their price increases, they also have a vertical integration with their supply chain. They own their own beef supply, and the land every single one of their franchises is on. The fucking rubes who buy a McDonalds Franchise literally have to lease the property from McDonalds as part of their contract. I expect they will be able to keep their prices way below their competitors in the face of inflation in food costs. Something all their competitors will be unable to do.
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Americans struggling to make car payments is highest since Great Recession
Car repossessions are on the rise as more consumers fall behind on their payments amid an inflation crisis that has squeezed millions of U.S. households.
Americans struggling to make car payments is highest since Great Recession
Car repossessions grow as Americans still struggle with high car prices and inflation
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2017
Part of me doesn't like how up everything is today.
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- Jan 31, 2020
Well don't worry. Today has come along and fixed that for ya.
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- Sep 30, 2016
VTSAX is the highest it's been I think in over a year. Haven't checked other indexes, but wondering at what point the smart money is on dumping and holding the cash for a fall.
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- Dec 18, 2022
Subprime lending should never have come back on asset classes like cars. We may very well be looking at another collapse of securities based on automotive debt defaults if this continues.Americans struggling to make car payments is highest since Great Recession
Car repossessions are on the rise as more consumers fall behind on their payments amid an inflation crisis that has squeezed millions of U.S. households.www.foxbusiness.com
Americans struggling to make car payments is highest since Great Recession
Car repossessions grow as Americans still struggle with high car prices and inflation
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For the uninitiated, the great recession was a direct result of trading mortgage debt, which was then defaulted upon because of subprime lending.
Guess what more people own then houses. That's right cars. Guess who are packaging their loans/leases into asset backed securities:
-Ford - https://www.ford.com/finance/investor-center/asset-backed-securitization-details/
-GM - https://www.gmfinancial.com/en-us/investor-center/asset-backed-securitization.html
- Toyota - https://www.toyotafinancial.com/us/en/investor_relations/asset-backed_securities.html
The list goes on and on, and all of this debt is sold off as low risk. Our only hope is that investment firms aren't heavily invested into 2020-2022 ABS, but I'm not sure.
The funny thing is everybody thinks car salesman are scummy as it is. Imagine being responsible for crashing the economy.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
It's mind blowing to me that the security even exists as an asset class. The idea that DEBT can be considered an ASSET that can be traded or sold is abhorrent. It's what crashed the economy in 2008 and rather then learn the lesson the banks instead made government a lender of last resort to guarantee Debt as an Asset.
Guarantee with WHAT?! The amount of debt owned by consumers in the USA alone is 16.5 TRILLION. The entire Tax Revenue of the US federal government in 2022 was just 5 Trillion. The debt cannot be backed by the US government because the US government literally does not have the money. It would have to slash all spending to 0, including wages for the federal beaurocracy, for three years just to cover the obligations that exist now.
It's not happening. Worse, those obligations are not sitting in bank vaults awaiting repayment. They have already been sold and used as collateral (securities) against more debt that the government is not even aware of.
Guarantee with WHAT?! The amount of debt owned by consumers in the USA alone is 16.5 TRILLION. The entire Tax Revenue of the US federal government in 2022 was just 5 Trillion. The debt cannot be backed by the US government because the US government literally does not have the money. It would have to slash all spending to 0, including wages for the federal beaurocracy, for three years just to cover the obligations that exist now.
It's not happening. Worse, those obligations are not sitting in bank vaults awaiting repayment. They have already been sold and used as collateral (securities) against more debt that the government is not even aware of.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2022
Nah we're fine man. The default rate on mortgages during the 2008 depression was only 38%. Just take that 16.5 trillion divide it by 3 and run the money printers like in 2020, and we'll be fine.
a terminal posture
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2019
Wait til you hear about these things called 'bonds'. They're EVERYWHERE and will bring the world down.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2022
Bonds are entirely different. Bond contracts are essentially loans issued from the buyer to the seller. When you buy a bond, you are essentially saying to a corporate/government entity, I will lend you x amount of money in exchange for a percentage of the remaining balance of the loan every year. You can transfer that contract to another person, so they get those payments instead. Usually in exchange for money. This is called buying a bond on the secondary market. Buying bonds at face incurs no risk as long as the entity keeps paying. The main issue is buying bonds on the secondary market from another person, incurs some risk. Those bond are sold for higher than face. For example, a $100 bond can be sold for $107 on the secondary market. Since bonds are just loans. If you buy a bond for $107, and the issuer just decides to pay off its face value of $100 the next day you are out $7.
ABS rely entirely on the performance of the underlying loans. When you buy an ABS you are buying a piece of the overall revenue produced by those loans. Overall that's not that bad for a stable asset. You buy the ABS which is usually just the amount of debt. You buy $100 worth of loans in a giant pool. Now if nothing goes wrong and nobody defaults or pays off their loans prematurely you collect the interest and principle on that debt. For a 7% loan that's 7% of profit per year on the remaining principle worth of ABS. Now ask yourself what happens when the default rate is 10%. Suddenly, you are losing 3% a year.
Bonds lose you money when the issuer pays them off too quickly or fails to pay them off.
ABS lose you money when the issuer makes bad loans that are either paid off too quickly or are defaulted on.
America's financial system is based entirely on mediocrity and dependency. Without that balance of barely making payments and staying in debt, nobody would make any money on debt and bonds.
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Its unsustainable. The Consumer Cattle cannot afford the obligations being put on them. When I wrote this thread I was terrified about the corporate debt obligation. Since then I have discovered the corporate debt obligations are now tied to the Consumer debt obligations which are tied to the GOVERNMENT debt obligations.
My god what have they done.
The most frustrating thing about this is its being sustained by FAITH. FAITH and CREDIT. These people actually think that if they clap their hands really hard and believe, tinkerbell will stay alive. And you know what is funny? It WORKS. For now.
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2018
This was gifted to me by @pwnest injun in another thread, he was talking to the AI everyone is messing with right now. Not gonna lie, kinda excited to see what happens.
- Joined
- Jun 6, 2020
The great thing about this is that if it does happen on the 15th then everyone will be claiming that this is the most amazing thing ever. If it happens a day or two later, most will say that it was basically right and thus pretty much equally impressive. If it's a month later around half will say that it would've even been closer is XYZ crazy thing didn't happen out of the blue. Then if it doesn't happen for a year or more then everyone will forget anyway although some will try to do an AI version of "The Simpsons Predicted [Thing]."